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Author: Iva Petrova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455252859
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
Author: Iva Petrova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455252859
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
Author: Mr. Evan Papageorgiou
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616357592
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Book Description
An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513573926
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 157
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Book Description
This guidance note was prepared by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group staff under a project undertaken with the support of grants from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative, (FIRST).The aim of the project was to deliver a report that provides emerging market and developing economies with guidance and a roadmap in developing their local currency bond markets (LCBMs). This note will also inform technical assistance missions in advising authorities on the formulation of policies to deepen LCBMs.
Author: Ricardo Hoyos
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781513550824
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
This paper examines the drivers of liquidity shortages in the Mexican government bond market. We use unique transaction- and quote level data with information on end-investors to construct an index of bond market liquidity. We find that liquidity remained stable in recent years, although temporary shortages arose amid domestic and global market stress. The analysis suggests that the largest liquidity squeezes have tended to be driven by foreign investors, whose sell-offs were especially pronounced in less liquid market segments. While domestic banks often absorbed part of the shock, other domestic investors--with the notable inclusion of domestic pension and mutual funds--appeared to take a more opportunistic stance depending on the nature of the shock.
Author: Nicola Gennaioli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498391990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.
Author: Ms.Anastasia Guscina
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498310680
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
International bond issuance by debut issuers has risen in recent years. The uptick was a result of both demand and supply factors. The search for yield and demand for portfolio diversification have resulted in demand-driven easy financing conditions. At the same time, rising financing needs for many debut issuers, coupled with reduced access to concessional financing, relatively undeveloped domestic markets, and a favorable interest rate environment have made international bonds an attractive financing alternative for many countries. As bonds issued in the international markets are typically denominated in hard currencies, have large volumes and a bullet structure, exposure to exchange rate and refinancing risk has increased. Therefore, risk-mitigating policy actions are needed to prepare for redemption, support debt sustainability, and secure adequate debt management capacity.
Author: Ms.Ratna Sahay
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484356004
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
Author: Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484326547
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from 2004 to mid-2013 and are available along with the paper in an online dataset. We estimate that about half a trillion dollars of foreign flows went into emerging market government debt during 2010–12, mostly coming from foreign asset managers. Foreign central bank holdings have risen as well, but remain concentrated in a few countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa. We also find that foreign investor flows to emerging markets were less differentiated during 2010–12 against the background of near-zero interest rates in advanced economies. The paper extends some of the indicators proposed in our earlier paper to show how the investor base data can be used to assess countries’ sensitivity to external funding shocks and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio.
Author:
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9780821349557
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 452
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Book Description
This handbook is a comprehensive and authoritative reference for both senior policymakers—those responsible for the development of government bond markets in their own countries—and all individuals responsible for guiding the market development process at the operational level—those who have a substantial need to understand the policy issues involved.
Author: Ananth N. Madhavan
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190279419
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 289
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Book Description
In Exchange-Traded Funds and the New Dynamics of Investing, Ananth Madhavan examines the quiet transformation of asset management through the rise of passive or index investing. A closely-related phenomenon is the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). An ETF is an investment vehicle that trades intraday and seeks to replicate the performance of a specific index. ETFs have grown substantially in size, diversity, and market significance in recent years. These trends have generated considerable interest, especially from retail and institutional investors and increasingly from academics, regulators and the press. ETFs have the power to be a disruptive innovation to today's asset management industry because many traditional active managers and hedge funds deliver a significant fraction of their active returns via static exposures to factors like value. Indeed, for the first time ever, assets in global ETFs exceeded $3 trillion in 2015, passing the amount in hedge funds.
