Economic Model of Brazil's Ethanol-Sugar Markets and Impacts of Fuel Policies PDF Download
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Languages : en
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Author: Harry de Gorter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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The lack of growth in the Brazilian sugarcane-ethanol complex since the 2008 financial crisis has been blamed on policies: lower mandate, holding gasoline prices below world levels, high fuel taxes, and inadequate fuel tax exemptions for ethanol. This paper develops an empirical model of the Brazilian fuel-ethanol-sugar complex to analyze the impacts of these policies. Unlike biofuel mandates and tax exemptions elsewhere, Brazil's fuel-ethanol-sugar markets and fuel policies are unique such that each policy, in theory, has an ambiguous impact on the market price of ethanol and hence on sugarcane and sugar prices. The results indicate two policies that seemingly help the ethanol industry do otherwise in reality: low gasoline taxes and high anhydrous tax exemptions lower ethanol prices. But higher mandates, hydrous ethanol tax exemptions, and gasoline prices had the expected impact of increasing ethanol and sugar prices. Eliminating Brazilian ethanol tax exemptions and mandates reduces ethanol prices by 21 percent. Observed changes in prices are explained by outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and bad weather reducing sugarcane supply.
Author: De Gorter Harry
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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The lack of growth in the Brazilian sugarcane-ethanol complex since the 2008 financial crisis has been blamed on policies: lower mandate, holding gasoline prices below world levels, high fuel taxes, and inadequate fuel tax exemptions for ethanol. This paper develops an empirical model of the Brazilian fuel-ethanol-sugar complex to analyze the impacts of these policies. Unlike biofuel mandates and tax exemptions elsewhere, Brazil's fuel-ethanol-sugar markets and fuel policies are unique such that each policy, in theory, has an ambiguous impact on the market price of ethanol and hence on sugarcane and sugar prices. The results indicate two policies that seemingly help the ethanol industry do otherwise in reality: low gasoline taxes and high anhydrous tax exemptions lower ethanol prices. But higher mandates, hydrous ethanol tax exemptions, and gasoline prices had the expected impact of increasing ethanol and sugar prices. Eliminating Brazilian ethanol tax exemptions and mandates reduces ethanol prices by 21 percent. Observed changes in prices are explained by outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and bad weather reducing sugarcane supply.
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Languages : en
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Author: Dusan Drabik
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Sugarcane in Brazil is processed into sugar and/or ethanol, often in flex plants that can switch between the two products. We develop an economic model of flex plants, export demands, and two domestic fuel demand curves for a blend of ethanol with gasoline consumed by conventional cars, and ethanol consumed only by flex cars. We analyze the market impacts of the following policies: the blend mandate; fixing gasoline prices below world prices; the high gasoline tax; and a higher tax exemption for ethanol blended with gasoline. Because Brazilian and U.S. ethanol prices have become linked, a change in Brazilian ethanol policy or a shock in world sugar markets can now impact U.S. ethanol and corn prices. We show that in theory, each policy analyzed has an ambiguous impact on ethanol and sugar prices. Empirically, however, a low gasoline tax and a high tax exemption for ethanol used in the fuel blend reduce ethanol and sugar prices; this contradicts conventional wisdom. Overall, we find that policy reforms implemented in 2010 offset the ethanol price increase by about 27% due to outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and due to a reduced sugarcane supply caused by bad weather. Our model illustrates the importance of Brazil's ethanol policies on world commodity markets; it also provides insight into how the Brazilian government can adjust policies to better control domestic inflation while minimizing impacts on investment.
Author: Brent Borrell
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Azucar - Brasil
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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By changing its policy, Brazil could increase its sugar exports greatly. The world price would decline, but Brazil's sugar revenues would increase.
Author: Brent Borrell
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Brasilien
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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The Brazil sugar and ethanol story is as follows: direct government intervention overrides market forces, markets undergo dramatic change, intervention establishes vested interests, rent-seeking blocks adjusment to market change, economic objectives become blurred behind political objectives, opportunities go begging, industry profitability suffers, and national income is foregone. A simple economic model of the Brazilian sugarcane sector and policy, interventions is used to measure the costs of existing policies and to develop better policies. Bazil is an efficient producer of sugar, but policy intervention causes: underproduction of sugarcane, the wrong mix of sugar and ethanol from cane (too much ethanol, not enough sugar), missed opportunities to market ethanol in high value uses (as an octane enhancer and clean fuel), and missed opportunities to make the work sugar market more competitive. Adopting more market based policies could be worth billions of dollars extra to Brazil annually.
Author: Márcia Azanha Ferraz Dias de Moraes
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3319031406
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 225
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The success of Brazil in the large-scale production and use of fuel ethanol has been widely discussed and analyzed by other countries interested in adopting policies designed to encourage the use of biofuels. Within this context, certain questions arise: Could the Brazilian experience be replicated in other countries? What were the conditions that enabled the creation of the Brazilian Proálcool (National Ethanol Program and what lessons can be learned? To examine these issues, it is important to understand the functioning of the key, interconnected markets (those for sugarcane, sugar and ethanol), which, from their inception, were the objects of extensive government intervention until 1999. Two main conditions enabled the creation of Proálcool: robust production of sugarcane and sugar (tightly regulated by the government, which applied the numerous regulations then in place); and the military regime that was in place at the time, whose decision-making and enforcement powers were quite broad, facilitating the carrying out of the necessary actions, as well as making it easier to coordinate the activities of the various stakeholders and sectors involved. This book increases understanding of the functioning of the sugarcane supply chain in Brazil, not only during the phase of government intervention but also in recent years (in the free-market environment). The lessons, positive and negative, gleaned from the Brazilian experience can contribute to reflection on and the development of alternative modalities of biofuel production in other countries, making the book of interest to scholars and policy-makers concerned with biofuel and renewable resources as well as economic development.
Author: Dusan Drabik
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 322
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This dissertation analyzes market and environmental effects of alternative U.S. and Brazilian biofuel policies. Although we focus on corn- and sugarcane-ethanol, the advanced analytical framework can easily be extended to other biofuels and biofuel feedstocks, such as biodiesel and soybean. The dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter develops an analytical framework to assess the market effects of a set of biofuel policies (including subsidies to feedstocks). U.S. corn-ethanol policies are used as an example to study the effects of biofuel policies on corn prices. We determine the 'no policy' ethanol price, analyze the implications for the 'no policy' corn price and resulting 'water' in the ethanol price premium due to the policy, and generalize the surprising interaction effects between mandates and tax credits to include ethanol and corn production subsidies. The effect of an ethanol price premium depends on the value of the ethanol co-product, the value of production subsidies, and how the world ethanol price is determined. U.S. corn-ethanol policies are shown to be a major reason for recent rises in corn prices. The ethanol policy-induced increase in corn prices is estimated to be 33 - 46.5 percent in the period 2008 - 2011. The second chapter seeks to answer the question of what caused the significant increase in ethanol, sugar, and sugarcane prices in Brazil in the period 2010/11 to 2011/12. We develop a general economic model of the Brazilian fuel-ethanol-sugar complex. Unlike biofuel mandates and tax exemptions elsewhere, Brazil's fuel-ethanol-sugar markets and fuel policies are unique in that each policy, in this setting, theoretically has an ambiguous impact on the market price of ethanol and hence on sugarcane and sugar prices. Our empirical analysis shows that there are two policies that seemingly help the ethanol industry but do otherwise in reality: a low gasoline tax and a high anhydrous tax exemption result in lower ethanol prices. On the other hand, as expected, higher mandates, gasoline prices, and tax exemptions for hydrous ethanol lead to higher ethanol and sugar prices. Eliminating Brazilian ethanol tax exemptions and mandates reduces ethanol prices by 21 percent in 2010-11, which is very similar to the estimated effects of U.S. ethanol policies in the same time period. However, the marginal changes in Brazilian policies on ethanol prices between 2010-11 and 2011-12 are small both individually and collectively. The observed market changes can only be explained by outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and reduced sugarcane supply due to bad weather. In the third chapter, we investigate whether U.S. corn ethanol saves greenhouse gas emissions relative to the gasoline it is assumed to replace one-to-one (on an energy equivalent basis). This chapter shows that ethanol policies generate far greater carbon leakage in the fuel market than in the agricultural market, where leakage occurs in the form of land use change. Carbon leakage in the fuel market due to a tax credit is always greater than that of a mandate, while the combination of a mandate and subsidy generates greater leakage than a mandate alone. We show that corn-ethanol does not meet the U.S. EPA's sustainability threshold, regardless of the biofuel policy and whether one includes emissions from land use change. This result makes the controversy over how to measure land use change inconsequential.
Author:
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437988245
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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