Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method PDF Download
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Author: Bibek Adhikari
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475529090
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
A number of advanced economies carried out a sequence of extensive reforms of their labor and product markets in the 1990s and early 2000s. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), this paper implements six case studies of well-known waves of reforms, those of New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Ireland and Netherlands in the 1990s, and the labor market reforms in Germany in the early 2000s. In four of the six cases, GDP per capita was higher than in the control group as a result of the reforms. No difference between the treated country and its synthetic counterpart could be found in the cases of Denmark and New Zealand, which in the latter case may have partly reflected the implementation of reforms under particularly weak macroeconomic conditions. Overall, also factoring in the limitations of the SCM in this context, the results are suggestive of a positive but heterogenous effect of reform waves on GDP per capita.
Author: Bibek Adhikari
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475529090
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
A number of advanced economies carried out a sequence of extensive reforms of their labor and product markets in the 1990s and early 2000s. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), this paper implements six case studies of well-known waves of reforms, those of New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Ireland and Netherlands in the 1990s, and the labor market reforms in Germany in the early 2000s. In four of the six cases, GDP per capita was higher than in the control group as a result of the reforms. No difference between the treated country and its synthetic counterpart could be found in the cases of Denmark and New Zealand, which in the latter case may have partly reflected the implementation of reforms under particularly weak macroeconomic conditions. Overall, also factoring in the limitations of the SCM in this context, the results are suggestive of a positive but heterogenous effect of reform waves on GDP per capita.
Author: Ms.Monique Newiak
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475599269
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
We use the Synthetic Control Method to study the effect of IMF advice on economic growth, inflation, and investment. The analysis exploits the existence of IMF programs that do not involve any financing (Policy Support Instruments, “PSIs”). This enables us to focus on the effects of IMF monitoring, advice, and approval (as opposed to direct financial assistance). In addition, countries with non-financial programs are typically not crisis-struck – thereby mitigating the reverse causality problem and facilitating the construction of counterfactuals. Results suggest that treated countries add about 1 percentage point in annual real GDP per capita growth, with inflation being lower by some 3 percentage points per year. While we do not find evidence for an impact on total investment and the resulting capital stock, PSI-treatment does seem to stimulate foreign direct investment.
Author: Angana Banerji
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475583974
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
Product and labor market reforms are needed to lift persistently sluggish growth in advanced economies. But reforms have progressed slowly because of concerns about their distributive and short-term economic effects. Our analysis, based on new empirical and numerical analysis and country case-studies shows that most labor and product market reforms can improve public debt dynamics over the medium-term. This because reforms raise output by boosting employment and/or labor productivity. But the effect of some labor market reforms on budgetary outcomes and fiscal sustainability depends critically on business cycle conditions. Our evidence also suggests that some temporary and well-designed up-front fiscal stimulus can help enhance the economic impact of reforms. In the past, countries have used fiscal incentives in the past to facilitate reforms by alleviating transition and social costs. But strong ownership of reforms was crucial for their successful implementation.
Author: Nauro F. Campos
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108479111
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 467
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Book Description
In contrast to the USA, Europe has struggled to return to the growth path it was on prior to the financial crisis of 2007-11. Not only has the recovery been slow, it has also been variable with Europe's core countries recovering more quickly than those on the periphery. It is widely believed that the best way to address this slow recovery is through structural reform programmes whereby changes in government policy, regulatory frameworks, investment incentives and labour markets are used to encourage more efficient markets and higher economic growth. This book is the first to provide a critical assessment of these reforms, with a new theoretical framework, new data and new empirical methodologies. It includes several case studies of countries such as Greece, Portugal and France that introduced significant reforms, revealing that such programmes have very divergent, and not always positive, effects on economic growth, employment and income inequality.
Author: Mr.Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484306988
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
We estimate the effects on growth of nine fiscal reform episodes in seven high-income countries using the Synthetic Control Method. These episodes are selected using an indicator-based approach applied to the evaluation of growth-friendly fiscal reforms during 1975-2010. We find that in reform countries the annual growth rate of real GDP was on average about 1 percentage point above their synthetic units 10 years after each respective reform. Moreover, countries which were initially less developed seemed to experience a larger growth impact after their reforms. Results are broadly robust to controlling for structural reforms on business regulation, financial market, labor market, and legal and product markets, which may also affect growth. Our findings also suggest that inequality is not affected by the growth-friendly fiscal reforms analyzed in this paper.
Author: Mr. Zamid Aligishiev
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
Many emerging market and developing economies face a difficult trade-off between economic support and fiscal sustainability. Market-oriented structural reforms ease this trade-off by promoting economic growth and strengthening public finances. The empirical analysis in this note, based on 62 EMDEs over 1973-2014, shows that reforms are associated with sizeable and long-lasting reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio mainly through higher fiscal revenues and lower borrowing costs. These effects are larger in countries with greater tax efficiency, lower informality, and higher initial debt. Moreover, a model-based analysis elaborates on how such fiscal gains can be enhanced when revenue windfalls associated with reforms are saved or channeled through higher public investment.
Author: Ara Stepanyan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513526871
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Spain’s structural reforms, implemented around 2012, have arguably contributed to a faster and stronger economic recovery. In particular, there is strong evidence that the 2012 labor market reforms increased wage flexibility, which helped the Spanish economy to regain competitiveness and create jobs. But the impact of these labor reforms on income inequality and social inclusion has not been analyzed much. This paper aims to shed light on this issue by employing an econometric decomposition procedure combined with the synthetic control method. The results indicate that the 2012 labor reforms have helped improve employment and income equality outcomes with no substantial impact on the overall risk of poverty. Nevertheless, the reforms appear to have induced a deterioration of average hours worked, in-work poverty, and possibly also of involuntary part-time employment.
Author: Janet G. Stotsky
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000030628
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
This book examines how fiscal policy and management can promote gender equality in developing as well as developed countries. Providing an international look at gender budgeting, it draws on countries at different levels of development, with an emphasis on low-income developing countries. It introduces the reader to the main trends in gender equality, the key ideas and rationale of gender budgeting from a fiscal policy perspective and where gender budgeting fits into public financial management. It offers case studies and other empirical evidence from developing, emerging, and developed countries on what works in using fiscal policy and public financial management to narrow gender gaps in education, health care, access to infrastructure, and economic empowerment. It also provides policy recommendations appropriate to countries at different levels of development. The reader will gain an understanding of how fiscal policy and public financial management can contribute to gender equality and women’s advancement. The book provides a well-grounded set of conclusions and policy recommendations, drawn from evaluation of the evidence. The focus is on low-income developing countries but is combined with a well-rounded look at developing countries, more generally, emerging markets, and developed countries as well. This book will be a valuable resource for economists and policy makers, particularly those in developing countries still grappling with large disparities between women and men. It will also prove useful to researchers and those who provide technical assistance and aid to countries on fiscal policies and tools for gender equality.
Author: Francesca G Caselli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484320360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
To fight deflationary pressures at the zero lower bound, in November 2013, the Czech National Bank (CNB) introduced a one-sided floor on the exchange rate, as an additional monetary policy instrument. This paper investigates the impact of the FX floor on inflation in the Czech Republic, by comparing actual inflation with counterfactuals in the absence of the exchange rate floor. Three different empirical strategies are implemented: an event study, difference-in-difference regressions and a synthetic control method. The empirical results provide evidence that the exchange rate floor was effective in fighting deflationary pressures and prevented inflation from going into negative territory. The magnitude of the effect ranges between 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points. The results are robust to different econometric specifications.
Author: Mrs.Paola Ganum
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513570048
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Covid-19 has exacerbated economic and social vulnerabilities across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). There is a risk that growth could be lower for longer, with a setback to development. Post-pandemic reforms thus become even more important, especially with constrained scope for fiscal and monetary stimuli. Reforms could boost per capita growth by an additional 0.3-1.3 percentage points, relative to the 1.9 percent average since 2010. Such growth would reduce per capita income doubling time from 37 years to about 22 years. Low-income countries stand to gain the most from reforms. The largest gains come from governance, products markets, and factor accumulation. Importantly, these reforms can be implemented in the post-pandemic environment characterized by weaker social and distributional outcomes.
