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Author: Imant Daunhawer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 6
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Book Description
This research uses football online betting odds of a broad variety of matches and bookmakers to identify known biases in odds pricing, namely the favorite-longshot bias and the away-favorite bias. Furthermore, it tries to answer the question whether a naive strategy of betting against these biases can be profitable. Our findings are consistent with previous research, confirming the existence of the favorite-longshot bias, but turn out to be in contrast with regard to the away-favorite bias, for which there is little evidence in the data. Also, we find that a strategy of betting against the favorite-longshot bias can be marginally profitable, whereas bets in favor of it result in large losses on average.
Author: Imant Daunhawer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 6
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Book Description
This research uses football online betting odds of a broad variety of matches and bookmakers to identify known biases in odds pricing, namely the favorite-longshot bias and the away-favorite bias. Furthermore, it tries to answer the question whether a naive strategy of betting against these biases can be profitable. Our findings are consistent with previous research, confirming the existence of the favorite-longshot bias, but turn out to be in contrast with regard to the away-favorite bias, for which there is little evidence in the data. Also, we find that a strategy of betting against the favorite-longshot bias can be marginally profitable, whereas bets in favor of it result in large losses on average.
Author: David Sumpter
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN: 1472924150
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
'Football looked at in a very different way' Pat Nevin, former Chelsea and Everton star and football media analyst Football – the most mathematical of sports. From shot statistics and league tables to the geometry of passing and managerial strategy, the modern game is filled with numbers, patterns and shapes. How do we make sense of them? The answer lies in the mathematical models applied in biology, physics and economics. Soccermatics brings football and mathematics together in a mind-bending synthesis, using numbers to help reveal the inner workings of the beautiful game. This new and expanded edition analyses the current big-name players and teams using mathematics, and meets the professionals working inside football who use numbers and statistics to boost performance. Welcome to the world of mathematical modelling, expressed brilliantly by David Sumpter through the prism of football. No matter who you follow – from your local non-league side to the big boys of the Premiership, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A or the MLS – you'll be amazed at what mathematics has to teach us about the world's favourite sport.
Author: David Peel
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 131798823X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 130
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Book Description
During the last few decades, commercial gambling has increased substantially throughout the Western world. More people than ever before have access to sources of legalised gambling, leading to bumper revenues for the institutions involved. Naturally enough, this has led to an increased interest in the area of the economics of betting. This book addresses the issues raised by the continued growth of the gambling sector. How can we model the behaviour of people who seemingly act irrationally? What are the implications of different tax policies with regard to gambling? Are casinos capable of taking money away from state-run lotteries and the causes they fund? Can bookmakers’ odds be influenced in such a way as to make the gambling market inefficient? The authors in this volume provide insights based on data from many different countries, including England, the USA, Australia, Spain and Cyprus. This volume brings together work which addresses the economic impact of the huge growth of commercial gambling in the Western world, as well as trying to model the cognitive processes which can explain why individuals are prepared to behave in such apparently irrational ways. This book was published as a special issue of Applied Economics. The academic editor of this journal is Mark P. Taylor.
Author: Donald B. Hausch
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812819193
Category : Games & Activities
Languages : en
Pages : 679
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Book Description
A reprint of one of the classic volumes on racetrack efficiency, this book is the only one in its field that deals with the racetrack betting market in-depth, containing all the important historical papers on racetrack efficiency. As evidenced by the collection of articles, the understanding of racetrack betting is clearly drawn from, and has correspondingly returned something to, all the fields of psychology, economics, finance, statistics, mathematics and management science.
Author: David A. Peel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
It is shown that the individual fixed-odds betting market on UK football exhibits the same favourite-longshot bias as that found in horse-racing. The bias appears both in betting on results (home win, away win or draw) and in betting on specific scores, and there are certain trading rules which appear to be profitable. Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions are carried out to estimate the mean number of goals scored by a team in a match with given market odds for the various outcomes. Tables of odds for individual scores are derived and these appear to fit the actual outcomes far better than those of the bookmaker.
Author: Plácido Rodríguez
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1785364553
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 213
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Book Description
This unique book delves into a number of intriguing issues and addresses several pertinent questions including, should gambling markets be privatized? Is the ‘hot hand’ hypothesis real or a myth? Are the ‘many’ smarter than the ‘few’ in estimating betting odds? How are prices set in fixed odds betting markets? The book also explores the informational efficiency of betting markets and the prevalence of corruption and illegal betting in sports.
Author: Jeffrey Ma
Publisher: St. Martin's Press
ISBN: 0230109683
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 265
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Book Description
As part of the notorious MIT Team depicted in Ben Mezrich's now classic Bringing Down the House, Jeff Ma used math and statistics to master the game of blackjack and reap handsome rewards at casinos. Years later, Ma has inspired not only a bestselling novel and hit movie, but has also started three different companies—the latest of which, Citizen Sports, is an innovative marriage of sports, betting, and digital technology—and launched a successful corporate speaking career. The House Advantage reveals Ma's cutting-edge mathematical insights into the world of statistics and makes them applicable to a wide business audience. He argues that numbers are the key to analyzing nearly everything in the world of business, from how to spot and profit from global market inefficiencies to having multiple backup plans in anticipation of every probability. Ma's stories and business lessons are as intriguing as they are universally applicable.
Author: Dragan Sestovic
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
In this article we discuss bookmaker margins embedded in odds for "1X2" bets in the European football betting markets operated by bookmakers. Bookmaker margins are adjustments applied to fair odds, for the purpose of ensuring profits and compensation for risks undertaken, and to cover overall operational costs. They are observable on a per match basis as the excess of the sum of the reciprocals of odds over one, which is popularly referred to as overround. In this article we study the margins from a risk point of view. We derive the expression for the expected variance of a portfolio of bets, in order to study risk-based determinants of margins. Risk of a portfolio of bets is shown to be particularly sensitive to the presence of low probability bets (longshots). We propose a new, risk-based measure for quantifying balancedness of a match. Using this measure along with the standard entropy measure, we investigate variations of overrounds between matches of different levels of balancedness. Our analysis shows that there is no a convincing empirical evidence that overall overrounds are dependent on the match balancedness. Similarly, the study of variations of overrounds by the levels of disagreement in probabilities between different bookmakers, does not show any significant interdependence. On the other hand, our study confirms the pervasiveness of a well known Favourite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in the European football betting markets. The odds have been more favourable for bets on favourites than for longshots. These conclusions suggest that margins are determined on a match-per-match basis. Long odds on longshots are being adjusted more aggressively downwards than short odds on favourites, while overall margins are being kept roughly at bookmaker-specific target levels. Empirical studies were performed using the historical data on 116,150 football matches, containing results and odds from 13 major bookmakers. The data set covers 19 major European football divisions during the last 17 years. Using this rich and recent data set, we also investigated the time evolution of overall margins, and variations of margins between the different bookmakers and football divisions.
Author: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139445405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 412
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Book Description
The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Betting markets are selected for study because they incorporate features highly appropriate to a study of information efficiency, in particular the fact that each bet has a well-defined end point at which its value becomes certain. Using international examples, this book reviews and analyses the issue of information efficiency in both financial and betting markets. Part I is an extensive survey of the existing literature, while Part II presents a range of readings by leading academics. Insights gained from the book will interest students of financial economics, financial market analysts, mathematicians and statisticians, and all those with a special interest in finance or gambling.
Author: David Winkelmann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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