Asset Price Bubble - How Fragile are the Residential Property Prices in Hong Kong PDF Download
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Author:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Author: Christoph Duenwald
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451841756
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.
Author: Mr.R. Sean Craig
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463925948
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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Book Description
This paper uses an econometric model of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR to assess the effectiveness of alternative policies in slowing the increase in property prices. The rapid rise in property prices is well explained by macroconomic fundamentals; real GDP per capital, real domestic credit, construction costs, land supply, and the real interest rate. Policy can influence the property market though land supply and prudential and tax policy, with the latter policies taking the form of a stamp duty on property transactions and a tighter loan-to-value ratio (LTV) on lending. Land supply is the most effective policy insturment for restraining property price increases but it operates with a significant lag. The LTV and stamp duty dampen speculative activity that drives up property prices. While these policies can slow the increase in the short run, they should be guided by their long run objectives of financial stability and counteracting speculation.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455210803
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
Sharp increase in house prices in Hong Kong SAR in 2009-2010 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. According to our measure of price deviation from fundamentals, which should be taken as an early warning indicator of market exuberance, the current level of house prices in Hong Kong SAR does not seem to be significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. Moreover, unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, deviation from fundamentals has not been persistent in Hong Kong.Going forward, low interest rate and improving growth prospects, as well as a tight supply, particularly in the mass market, means that house price growth will continue to be strong.This is the period in which vulnerability may be accumulating, and tight prudential standards and fiscal measures will be required to tame price inflation.
Author: Zhiguo He
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We empirically analyze the pricing of political uncertainty in a long-term asset market, guided by a theoretical model of housing assets subject to contract extension in the remote future. To identify exposure to political uncertainty, we exploit a unique variation around land lease extension protection beyond 2047 in Hong Kong's housing market due to the historical arrangements under the "One Country, Two Systems” design. We find political uncertainty is priced, as predicted by theory, in that relative to properties that have been promised an extension protection, those with legally unprotected leases granted by the current Hong Kong government are sold at a substantial discount of around 8%. Similar contracts issued during the colonial era suffer an additional discount of about 8% due to their reneging risk. Our calibrated model implies that to extend their leases homeowners expect about 25% of penalty on ground rent after 2047. The discount is higher when people's confidence declines and where residents feel more uncertain of the city's future.
Author: Bertrand Renaud
Publisher: Hong Kong University Press
ISBN: 9622094384
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 137
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Book Description
'The real estate economy of Hong Kong is one of the most dynamic and sophisticated in the world, and has contributed greatly to the spectacular development of this vibrant city. More importantly, at a time of rapid globalization of the world economy, it is possibly the best model of the behaviour of an advanced real estate industry operating in an open economy. Hong Kong is thereforeof interest to analysts and policymakers everywhere, not least because of Hong Kong's political reintegration with China in 1997. With this in mind, the authors have managed to capture the key economic features of the private residential real estate market in Hong Kong in this compact volume. They have identified and highlighted critical institutions that contribute to the success and economic factors which shape the dynamics of all sectors of the real estate industry in Hong Kong. This book is essential reading for market analysts, policymakers, students and international readers with an interest in comparative analysis of real estate markets and institutions.' Professor Anthony Walker, Centre for Real Estate and Urban Economics,The University of Hong Kong.
Author: Yumi Shindo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commercial real estate
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Author: Honglin Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
Author: Kun Li
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 9
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Book Description
Housing prices in Hong Kong have been rising for more than a decade and recent hikes are mainly driven by Mainland developers in the primary market. Local developers and residents seem to be relatively conservative as the prospects for the Hong Kong housing market have been dim due to low affordability and the demographic situation. When the “bubble” collapses, it is highly likely that Mainland developers will be hit the hardest and local players will limit their losses. However, the sharp drop in Hong Kong housing prices will attract short sellers who could leverage the weakness in the Hong Kong currency-peg system. The selling pressure on the HKD and stocks could push up local interest rates and create real and more severe economic damage.
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022639574X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 517
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Book Description
This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.
