Assessing the Risks to the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Market PDF Download
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Author: Mr.Waikei W. Lam
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463927266
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
Despite the rise in public debt, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained low and stable, supported by steady inflows from the household and corporate sectors, high domestic ownership of JGBs, and safe-haven flows from heightened sovereign risks in Europe. Over time, however, the market's capacity to absorb new debt will likely shrink as population ages and risk appetite recovers. In the short term, a decline in fund supply from the corporate sector, where financial surpluses are abnormally high, and spillovers from global financial distress could push up JGB yields. Fiscal reforms to reduce public debt more quickly and lengthen the maturity of government bonds will help limit these risks.
Author: Mr.Waikei W. Lam
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463927266
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
Get Book Here
Book Description
Despite the rise in public debt, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained low and stable, supported by steady inflows from the household and corporate sectors, high domestic ownership of JGBs, and safe-haven flows from heightened sovereign risks in Europe. Over time, however, the market's capacity to absorb new debt will likely shrink as population ages and risk appetite recovers. In the short term, a decline in fund supply from the corporate sector, where financial surpluses are abnormally high, and spillovers from global financial distress could push up JGB yields. Fiscal reforms to reduce public debt more quickly and lengthen the maturity of government bonds will help limit these risks.
Author: Young Ho Eom
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bonds
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Author: Frank J. Fabozzi
Publisher: Irwin Professional Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 560
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Book Description
Author: Young Ho Eom
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
In many markets, the term structure of interest rates implied by coupon Treasury bonds provides a key input for pricing and hedging interest rate-sensitive securities. Previous studies in the Japanese market, however, suggest that the prices of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGB's) were significantly affected modelling in the Japanese context bases on interest rate factors could leave to misleading results. Since the previous studies, there have been significant structural changes in the regulatory environment, and in the liquidity of the Japanese bond market in the 1990's. In this light, we examine the effect of these changes on the JGB prices during the period between 1990 and 1996, by analyzing the term structure of interest rates in the JGB market over time. Specifically, we use the B-spline method to fit the term structure of interest rates using weekly prices of quot;non-benchmarkquot; ten-year JGB's. We also use a non-linear econometric model to examine the significance of the quot;couponquot; effects, which are the results of regulatory, accounting and liquidity factors.
Author: Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147556838X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
This paper examines how Japan’s long-term interest rates and Japanese banks’ interest rate risk exposures may evolve under Abenomics. Results from a panel regression analysis for major advanced economies shows that long-term government bond yields in Japan are determined to a large extent by growth and inflation outlook, fiscal conditions, demography, and the investor base of government securities. A further deterioration of fiscal conditions would push up long-term rates by about 2 percentage points over the medium term, but the rise is partly offset by higher demand for safe assets amid population aging and increased purchases by the Bank of Japan. At the same time, illustrative scenarios suggest the interest rate risk exposure of Japanese banks could decline substantially over the next two years. However, if structural and fiscal reforms are incomplete, both long-tem yields and interest-risk exposures of Japanese banks could increase over the medium term.
Author: Kenneth J. Singleton
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper characterizes the nature of yield curve risk in the Japanese government bond (JGB) market, and explores the effectiveness of risk management based on a linear factor representation of yield curve risk. The implied optimal hedges against factor risk are related to duration-based hedging strategies, which are shown in many cases to be substantially suboptimal. In addition, the drift over time in optimal hedge ratios due to the local nature of optimal hedging is investigated. The results show substantial drift especially for the weights on the factor representing the risk of a changing slope of the JGB yield curve. Though our focus is on government bond markets, the findings have implications for risk management for most interest-sensitive instruments, especially those that are priced relative to government bonds (e.g., corporate bonds).
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
Author: Yasushi Hamao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
Author: Nobuyuki Oda
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bonds
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
Author: Hongfang Zhang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
This paper examines the dynamic patterns of international linkages of the Japanese government bond yields with government bond yields in the US, the UK and Germany during the period from January 1980 to December 2004. Applying the vector autoregression (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model to monthly observations of nominal bond yields and exchange rate-adjusted bond yields over the 25-year period, this paper provides consistent empirical evidence that the Japanese bond market is independent of other major national bond markets, but it exerts some influence in determining bond yields in bond markets in other major industrial countries. However, since the early 1990, evidence shows that the independence of the Japanese bond market has increased further, while its leading role in global bond markets has been eroded significantly.
