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Author: Cesar Calderon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper presents new empirical evidence on how fiscal space in Sub-Saharan Africa has evolved over the past 15 years. Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept that is proxied by indicators capturing aspects of fiscal sustainability, balance sheet vulnerabilities, external debt positions, and market perception. The analysis relies on a new comprehensive database developed on a wide array of indicators (28) for a large set of countries in the world-of which 48 are in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis finds that, breaking with history, Sub-Saharan African countries were able to conduct countercyclical policies amid the 2008-09 global financial crisis, thanks to built-up liquidity and policy buffers. The evidence shows that fiscal adjustment efforts in the region were reversed amid the 2014-16 plunge in commodity prices, and oil and minerals and metals exporters saw a sharp deterioration in their primary balance sustainability gap. The paper finds a great deal of heterogeneity in the post-global financial crisis evolution of the fiscal space in the region. In countries with reduced fiscal space, the increase in the number of tax years to repay the debt fully was 1.1 years for the representative country, and in over one-third of the countries, this increase was more than one standard deviation above the median.
Author: Cesar Calderon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper presents new empirical evidence on how fiscal space in Sub-Saharan Africa has evolved over the past 15 years. Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept that is proxied by indicators capturing aspects of fiscal sustainability, balance sheet vulnerabilities, external debt positions, and market perception. The analysis relies on a new comprehensive database developed on a wide array of indicators (28) for a large set of countries in the world-of which 48 are in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis finds that, breaking with history, Sub-Saharan African countries were able to conduct countercyclical policies amid the 2008-09 global financial crisis, thanks to built-up liquidity and policy buffers. The evidence shows that fiscal adjustment efforts in the region were reversed amid the 2014-16 plunge in commodity prices, and oil and minerals and metals exporters saw a sharp deterioration in their primary balance sustainability gap. The paper finds a great deal of heterogeneity in the post-global financial crisis evolution of the fiscal space in the region. In countries with reduced fiscal space, the increase in the number of tax years to repay the debt fully was 1.1 years for the representative country, and in over one-third of the countries, this increase was more than one standard deviation above the median.
Author: Corinne Deléchat
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513521810
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This paper studies the role of fiscal policies and institutions in building resilience in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990-2013, with specific emphasis on a group of twenty-six countries that were deemed fragile in the 1990s. As the drivers of fragility and resilience are closely intertwined, we use GMM estimation as well as a probabilistic framework to address endogeneity and reverse causality. We find that fiscal institutions and fiscal space, namely the capacity to raise tax revenue and contain current spending, as well as lower military spending and, to some extent, higher social expenditure, are significantly and fairly robustly associated with building resilience. Similar conclusions arise from a study of the progression of a group of seven out of the twenty-six sub- Saharan African countries that managed to build resilience after years of civil unrest and/or violent conflict. These findings suggest relatively high returns to focusing on building sound fiscal institutions in fragile states. The international community can help this process through policy advice, technical assistance, and training on tax administration and budget reforms.
Author: Victor Duarte Lledo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451874197
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity, it finds government expenditures to be slightly more procyclical in sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries and some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined in recent years after a period of sharp increase through the 1990s. Greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt, and better access to concessional financing, proxied by larger aid flows, seem to be important factors in diminishing procyclicality in the region. The role of institutions is less clear cut: changes in political institutions have no impact on procyclicality.
Author: Mr.Enrique Gelbard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513550012
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 99
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the persistence of fragility in some sub-Saharan African states and the multiple dimensions of state weakness that are simultaneously at play. This study also provides an overview of the analytics of fragility, conflict, and international engagement with fragile states before turning to an assessment of the current state of affairs and the areas in which there has been progress in building resilience. The paper also looks at the role of fiscal policies and institutions and analyzes growth accelerations and decelerations. Seven country case studies help identify more concretely some key factors at play, and the diversity of paths followed, with an emphasis on the sequencing of reforms. The paper concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications.
Author: César Calderón
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper presents new empirical evidence on how fiscal space in Sub-Saharan Africa has evolved over the past 15 years. Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept that is proxied by indicators capturing aspects of fiscal sustainability, balance sheet vulnerabilities, external debt positions, and market perception. The analysis relies on a new comprehensive database developed on a wide array of indicators (28) for a large set of countries in the world—of which 48 are in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis finds that, breaking with history, Sub-Saharan African countries were able to conduct countercyclical policies amid the 2008–09 global financial crisis, thanks to built-up liquidity and policy buffers. The evidence shows that fiscal adjustment efforts in the region were reversed amid the 2014–16 plunge in commodity prices, and oil and minerals and metals exporters saw a sharp deterioration in their primary balance sustainability gap. The paper finds a great deal of heterogeneity in the post–global financial crisis evolution of the fiscal space in the region. In countries with reduced fiscal space, the increase in the number of tax years to repay the debt fully was 1.1 years for the representative country, and in over one-third of the countries, this increase was more than one standard deviation above the median.
Author: Blanca Moreno-Dodson
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821396315
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 285
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Book Description
The effects of fiscal policy measures, both taxes and public spending, adopted by developing countries in response to the 2009 global crisis are still uncertain. This book discusses them using an analytical framework that allows for distilling possible implications on growth and social welfare.
Author: Mr.Tetsuya Konuki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475529775
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for procyclical fiscal policy was particularly pronounced among oil exporters and after the global financial crisis. It also finds a statistically significant causal link running from deeper financial markets and higher reserves coverage to lower fiscal policy procyclicality. Fiscal rules supported by strong political commitment and institutions seem to be key to facilitating progress for deeper financial markets and stronger reserves coverage.
Author: Mr.Niko A Hobdari
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484366395
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 63
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Book Description
Fiscal decentralization is becoming a pressing issue in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting demands for a greater local voice in spending decisions and efforts to strengthen social cohesion. Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to distill the lessons for an effective fiscal decentralization reform, focusing on the macroeconomic aspects. The main findings for sub-Saharan African countries that have decentralized, based on an empirical analysis and four case studies (Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda), are as follows: • Determinants and effectiveness: Empirical results suggest that (1) the major driving forces behind fiscal decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa include efforts to defuse ethnic conflicts, the initial level of income, and the urban-ization rate, whereas strength of democracy is not an important determi-nant for decentralization; and (2) decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa is associated with higher growth in the presence of stronger institutions. • Spending assignments: The allocation of spending across levels of gov-ernment in the four case studies is broadly consistent with best practice. However, in Uganda, unlike in the other three case studies, subnational governments have little flexibility to make spending decisions as a result of a deconcentrated rather than a devolved system of government. • Own revenue: The assignment of taxing powers is broadly in line with best practice in the four case studies, with the bulk of subnational revenue coming from property taxes and from fees for local services. However, own revenues are a very small fraction of subnational spending, reflecting weak cadaster systems and a high level of informality in the economy.
Author: Ezequiel Cabezon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Many empirical studies of banking crises have employed "banking crisis" (BC) indicators constructedusing primarily information on government actions undertaken in response to bank distress. Weformulate a simple theoretical model of a banking industry which we use to identify and constructtheory-based measures of systemic bank shocks (SBS). Using both country-level and firm-level samples, we show that SBS indicators consistently predict BC indicators based on four major BCseries that have appeared in the literature. Therefore, BC indicatorsactually measure lagged government responses to systemic bank shocks, rather than the occurrence of crises per se. We re-examine the separate impact of macroeconomic factors, bank market structure, deposit insurance, andexternal shocks on the probability of a systemic bank shocks and on the probability of governmentresponses to bank distress. The impact of these variables on the likelihood of a government responseto bank distress is totally different from that on the likelihood of a systemic bank shock.Disentangling the effects of systemic bank shocks and government responses turns out to be crucial inunderstanding the roots of bank fragility. Many findings of a large empirical literature need to be re-assessed and/or re-interpreted.
Author: Francisco Arizala
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148433311X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful than those based on public investment cuts. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment and the accompanying policy environment.
