Author: Robert J. Gordon
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226304590
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 882
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Book Description
In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498356303
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author: Wesley Clair Mitchell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 642
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Book Description
Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226978923
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 613
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Book Description
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author: Mr. Christian Bogmans
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 155775246X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
We study how two aspects of food insecurity - caloric insufficiency and diet composition - are affected by aggregate economic fluctuations. The use of cross-country panel data allows us to adopt a global prospective on the identification of the macroeconomic determinants of food insecurity. Income shocks are the most relevant driver of food insecurity, displaying high elasticities at the early stages of economic development. The role of food price shocks is more limited. Social protection has a direct effect and mitigates the impact of income shocks. Effects are highly heterogeneous across a range of structural characteristics of the economy, highlighting the role of distributional aspects and of food import dependency.
Author: Vivian Z. Yue
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1462330452
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments.
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022649036X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 587
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Book Description
The thirty-first edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features theoretical and empirical research on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. The first two papers are rigorous and data-driven analyses of the European financial crisis. The third paper introduces a new set of facts about economic growth and financial ratios as well as a new macrofinancial database for the study of historical financial booms and busts. The fourth paper studies the historical effects of Federal Reserve efforts to provide guidance about the future path of the funds rate. The fifth paper explores the distinctions between models of price setting and associated nominal frictions using data on price setting behavior. The sixth paper considers the possibility that the economy displays nonlinear dynamics that lead to cycles rather than long-term convergence to a steady state. The volume also includes a short paper on the decline in the rate of global economic growth.
Author: Harald Hagemann
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 104024033X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 395
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Book Description
In the mid-19th century, the business cycle was increasingly recognized as a recurrent phenomenon. This edition contains key texts from the range of literature in the field. It covers many Anglo-Saxon writers as well as contributions from the French, German, Italian, Russian and Swedish debates.
Author: Willi Semmler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401113645
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 404
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Book Description
In macrodynamics and business cycle analysis we find nowadays a variety of approaches elaborating frameworks for studying the fluctuations in economic and financial data. These approaches are viewed from Keynesian, monetarist and rational expectations standpoints. There are now also numerous empirical methods for the testing of nonlinear data generating mechanisms. This volume brings together a selection of contributions on theories of the business cycle and new empirical methods and synopsizes the new results. The volume (i) gives an overview of current models and modern concepts and tools for analyzing the business cycle; (ii) demonstrates, where possible, the relation of those models to the history of business cycle analysis; and (iii) presents current work, surveys and original work, on new empirical methods of studying cycle generating mechanisms.
Author: Douglas Cumming
Publisher: OUP USA
ISBN: 0195391241
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 937
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Book Description
Provides a comprehensive picture of issues dealing with different sources of entrepreneurial finance and different issues with financing entrepreneurs. The Handbook comprises contributions from 48 authors based in 12 different countries.
