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Author: Ramaprasad Bhar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
We represent credit spreads across ratings as a function of common unobservable factors of the mean-reverting normal (Vasicek) form. Using a state-space approach we estimate the factors, their process parameters, and the exposure of each observed credit spread series to each factor. We find that most of the systematic variation across credit spreads is captured by three factors. The factors are closely related to the implied volatility index (VIX), the long bond rate, and Samp;P500 returns, supporting the predictions of structural models of default at an aggregate level. By making no prior assumption about the determinants of yield spread dynamics, our study provides an original and independent test of theory. The results also contribute to the current debate about the role of liquidity in corporate yield spreads. While recent empirical literature shows that the level and time-variation in corporate yield spreads is driven primarily by a systematic liquidity risk factor, we find that the three most important drivers of yield spread levels relate to macroeconomic variables. This suggests that liquidity risk is largely driven by the same factors as default risk.
Author: Ramaprasad Bhar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
We represent credit spreads across ratings as a function of common unobservable factors of the mean-reverting normal (Vasicek) form. Using a state-space approach we estimate the factors, their process parameters, and the exposure of each observed credit spread series to each factor. We find that most of the systematic variation across credit spreads is captured by three factors. The factors are closely related to the implied volatility index (VIX), the long bond rate, and Samp;P500 returns, supporting the predictions of structural models of default at an aggregate level. By making no prior assumption about the determinants of yield spread dynamics, our study provides an original and independent test of theory. The results also contribute to the current debate about the role of liquidity in corporate yield spreads. While recent empirical literature shows that the level and time-variation in corporate yield spreads is driven primarily by a systematic liquidity risk factor, we find that the three most important drivers of yield spread levels relate to macroeconomic variables. This suggests that liquidity risk is largely driven by the same factors as default risk.
Author: Jacinto Marabel Romo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Book Description
The empirical tests of traditional structural models of credit risk tend to indicate that such models have been unsuccessful in the modeling of credit spreads. To address these negative findings some authors introduce single-factor stochastic volatility specifications and/or jumps.In the yield curve literature it is widely accepted that one-factor is not sufficient to capture the time variation and cross-sectional variation in the term structure. This article introduces a two-factor stochastic volatility specification within the structural model of credit risk. One of the factors determines the correlation between short-term firms' assets returns and variance, whereas the other factor determines the correlation between long-term returns and variance. The numerical tests reveal how the introduction of two volatility factors can generate a wide range of combinations associated with short-term and long-term patters corresponding to credit spreads. In this sense, multi-factor stochastic volatility specifications provide more flexibility than single-factor models to capture a wide range of shapes associated with the term structure of credit spreads consistent with the empirical evidence.
Author: Clemens Mueller
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
We propose a multi-factor structural model of corporate bond prices. Bonds are valued in an arbitrage-free setting. The term structure of credit spreads is a function of a set of observable variables, including the issuer's leverage ratio, the riskfree interest rate and other stochastic factors that proxy for the issuer's likelihood of default. The set of factors may include both systematic and idiosyncratic components. We test the model using prices of Delta Airlines' bonds. Factors included in this empirical analysis are the growth rate of GDP and the volatility on Delta's stock. The root mean squared error between actual credit spreads and model-determined credit spreads decreases from 45 to 40 basis points when these factors are included in the analysis. Several extant models in the literature are special cases of the structure developed here and rejected in the empirical work.
Author: Arik Ben Dor
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119751284
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 742
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Book Description
Praise for SYSTEMATIC INVESTING in CREDIT "Lev and QPS continue to shed light on the most important questions facing credit investors. This book focuses on their latest cutting-edge research into the appropriate role of credit as an asset class, the dynamics of credit benchmarks, and potential ways to benefit from equity information to construct effective credit portfolios. It is must-read material for all serious credit investors." —Richard Donick, President and Chief Risk Officer, DCI, LLC, USA "Lev Dynkin and his team continue to spoil us; this book is yet another example of intuitive, insightful, and pertinent research, which builds on the team's previous research. As such, the relationship with this team is one of the best lifetime learning experiences I have had." —Eduard van Gelderen, Chief Investment Officer, Public Sector Pension Investment Board, Canada "The rise of a systematic approach in credit is a logical extension of the market's evolution and long overdue. Barclays QPS team does a great job of presenting its latest research in a practical manner." —David Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, Agilon Capital, USA "Systematization reduces human biases and wasteful reinventing of past solutions. It improves the chances of investing success. This book, by a team of experts, shows you the way. You will gain insights into the advanced methodologies of combining fundamental and market data. I recommend this book for all credit investors." —Lim Chow Kiat, Chief Executive Officer, GIC Asset Management, Singapore "For nearly two decades, QPS conducted extensive and sound research to help investors meet industry challenges. The proprietary research in this volume gives a global overview of cutting-edge developments in alpha generation for credit investors, from signal extraction and ESG considerations to portfolio implementation. The book blazes a trail for enhanced risk adjusted returns by exploring the cross-asset relation between stocks and bonds and adding relevant information for credit portfolio construction. Our core belief at Ostrum AM, is that a robust quantamental approach, yields superior investment outcomes. Indeed, this book is a valuable read for the savvy investor." —Ibrahima Kobar, CFA, Global Chief Investment Officer, Ostrum AM, France "This book offers a highly engaging account of the current work by the Barclays QPS Group. It is a fascinating mix of original ideas, rigorous analytical techniques, and fundamental insights informed by a long history of frontline work in this area. This is a must-read from the long-time leaders in the field." —Professor Leonid Kogan, Nippon Telephone and Telegraph Professor of Management and Finance, MIT "This book provides corporate bond portfolio managers with an abundance of relevant, comprehensive, data-driven research for the implementation of superior investment performance strategies." —Professor Stanley J. Kon, Editor, Journal of Fixed income "This book is a treasure trove for both pension investors and trustees seeking to improve performance through credit. It provides a wealth of empirical evidence to guide long-term allocation to credit, optimize portfolio construction and harvest returns from systematic credit factors. By extending their research to ESG ratings, the authors also provide timely insights in the expanding field of sustainable finance." —Eloy Lindeijer, former Chief of Investment Management, PGGM, Netherlands "Over more than a decade, Lev Dynkin and his QPS team has provided me and APG with numerous innovative insights in credit markets. Their work gave us valuable quantitative substantiation of some of our investment beliefs. This book covers new and under-researched areas of our markets, like ESG and factor investing, next to the rigorous and practical work akin to the earlier work of the group. I'd say read this book—and learn from one of the best." —Herman Slooijer, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income, APG Asset Management, Netherlands
Author: Kris Jacobs
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
This paper investigates a two-factor affine model for the credit spreads on corporate bonds. The first factor can be interpreted as the level of the spread, and the second factor is the volatility of the spread. The riskless interest rate is modeled using a standard two-factor affine model, thus leading to a four-factor model for corporate yields. This approach allows us to model the volatility of corporate credit spreads as stochastic, and also allows us to capture higher moments of credit spreads. We use an extended Kalman filter approach to estimate our model on corporate bond prices for 108 firms. The model is found to be successful at fitting actual corporate bond credit spreads, resulting in a significantly lower root mean square error (RMSE) than a standard alternative model in both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. In addition, key properties of actual credit spreads are better captured by the model.
Author: Freeman Publications
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 132
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Book Description
What if you could get an extra $100, $200 or even $500 deposited directly into your brokerage account within the next 24 hours? That might sound impossible... but with credit spreads... it's not just a possibility... it's a certainty. Because with credit spreads, every single trade pays you when you enter it. And you can use these to generate safe returns, no matter what happens to your stock. Unlike regular options trading, you don't even need to guess the direction of a stock, or what price it will be in a month. You only have to guess a price range. And you can use this strategy to generate income on stocks you don't even own... even if those stocks are moving sideways. Plus by focusing on only the most reliable moves - you can win as often as 85 times out of every 100 trades - which means you pile up profits that others can only dream about! All of this without paying a "trading guru" thousands of dollars to learn their system. Here's just a fraction of what you'll learn inside the book: The 8 criteria we use to select the best stocks to write credit spreads - Page 85 The vital difference between naked and uncovered calls - Page 55 10 examples of stock you should never use to trade credit spreads. Amateurs do this all the time and you can lose as much as $31,000 on a single trade. Learn why these stocks are so dangerous and what to do instead - Page 86 How to automatically set up take profit levels so you only have to spend a couple minutes each month managing your trades - Page 104 Options Greeks explained in 10 minutes - Page 44 Exactly what level the VIX should be at before you sell a spread. A backtest implementing this one tweak made the strategy 50% more profitable over 10 years worth of trades - Page 96 A simple strategy for selecting the right strike price for your options - Page 160 The only 3 technical indicators you need to know for credit spreads. Ignore everything else, you only need these 3 beginner friendly metrics to get started - Page 70 No strategy is risk-free, but on page 101 we show you how to set up your trades to avoid any big losses How to find the best credit spreads stocks for free. Stock scanning services will charge you $300 a year for this information, but our approach costs nothing and lists the exact same companies - Page 81 Plus, inside the book you get free access to a 7 part video course covering every aspect of profitable investing So even if you've never used options before, the book walks you through everything step by step. You'll find everything explained in plain English, free from technical jargon. Even if you get stuck, you can always send us an email (provided inside the book) or reach out in our private investing community on social media - we're always happy to help with any questions you might have. And remember... bank CD's will only pay you between 0% and 1%... the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is around 2%... and 5 to 10 year municipal bonds will only pay between 2% and 3%. But if you use what's inside this book, you could have the opportunity to earn so much more than that. And when you receive just a single premium from one of these trades (which is paid into your account instantly) it will cover the cost of this book 10x over. To get your copy right now, just scroll up and click "add to cart"
Author: Lei Shi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Andriy Demchuk
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
We build a structural two-factor model of default where the stock market index is one of the stochastic factors. We allow the firm to adjust its leverage ratio in response to changes the business climate, for which the past performance of the stock market index acts as a proxy. We assume that the firm's log-leverage ratio follows a mean-reverting process and that the past performance of the stock index negatively affects the firm's target leverage ratio. Our model shows that the past performance of the stock index returns and the correlation between the firm's assets and index returns have a significant impact on credit spreads. Hence, our model can explain why credit spreads may be different within the same credit-rating groups and why spreads are lower during economic expansions and higher during recessions. We also show that our model may explain actual yield spreads better than other well known structural credit risk models.
Author: Boon Casey
Publisher: Judith Laverty
ISBN: 1775131408
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
Are you Looking for a way to put more money back into your pocket, month after month after month? Learning about Credit Spreads may be your ticket! Discover the benefits of Credit Spreads as your GO TO trading strategy. Learn how you can trade Credit Spreads easily, without the need to be an expert. When it comes to Options Trading, because Credit Spreads is a type of Options Trading, people often think it is too difficult and technical. This book puts that notion to rest. You will see that Credit Spreads can be straight forward and a low risk form of investing. This book is an introduction to the fundamentals of trading Credit Spreads. Start with the basics. Once you have a comfortable grasp of how Credit Spreads work, you will have started to make some profits. This method is low risk. Once you set it up, you can count on it to provide you with a consistent shot of extra cash, for you to use as you wish! After you have Credit Spreads churning out income for you, you can then decide it this is the only type of trading you want to do, or, you can consider adding another form of trading. Scale up and Diversify! Use the profits from your Credit Spreads, then it really becomes risk free! But only when you are ready. Because Credit Spreads are so Low Risk, they are ideal for retirement. Who should not buy this book? Someone who is looking for a how to course. This is not a course, it is book that gives the concepts and fundamental that underlie Credit spreads. The goal is to get you started in your trading career. Be Comfortable, earn profits! Please order Credit Spreads: Beginners Guide to Low Risk, Secure, Easy to Manage, Consistent Profits for Long Term Wealth Creation and let me show you just how inviting Credit Spreads can be!
Author: Dilip B. Madan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
