A Bayesian Approach for the Reduction of Uncertainty in the Industrial Source Complex-short Term Model Version 3 (ISCST3) PDF Download
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Author: Wayne Wei-Yuan Tu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dissertations, Academic
Languages : en
Pages : 332
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Author: Wayne Wei-Yuan Tu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dissertations, Academic
Languages : en
Pages : 332
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Book Description
Author: Kenneth T. Hu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 322
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Book Description
Engineering design work relies on the ability to predict system performance. A great deal of effort is spent producing models that incorporate knowledge of the underlying physics and chemistry in order to understand the relationship between system inputs and responses. Although models can provide great insight into the behavior of the system, actual design decisions cannot be made based on predictions alone. In order to make properly informed decisions, it is critical to understand uncertainty. Otherwise, there cannot be a quantitative assessment of which predictions are reliable and which inputs are most significant. To address this issue, a new design method is required that can quantify the complex sources of uncertainty that influence model predictions and the corresponding engineering decisions. Design of experiments is traditionally defined as a structured procedure to gather information. This thesis reframes design of experiments as a problem of quantifying and managing uncertainties. The process of designing experimental studies is treated as a statistical decision problem using Bayesian methods. This perspective follows from the realization that the primary role of engineering experiments is not only to gain knowledge but to gather the necessary information to make future design decisions. To do this, experiments must be designed to reduce the uncertainties relevant to the future decision. The necessary components are: a model of the system, a model of the observations taken from the system, and an understanding of the sources of uncertainty that impact the system. While the Bayesian approach has previously been attempted in various fields including Chemical Engineering the true benefit has been obscured by the use of linear system models, simplified descriptions of uncertainty, and the lack of emphasis on the decision theory framework. With the recent development of techniques for Bayesian statistics and uncertainty quantification, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Polynomial Chaos Expansions, and a prior sampling formulation for computing utility functions, such simplifications are no longer necessary. In this work, these methods have been integrated into the decision theory framework to allow the application of Bayesian Designs to more complex systems. The benefits of the Bayesian approach to design of experiments are demonstrated on three systems: an air mill classifier, a network of chemical reactions, and a process simulation based on unit operations. These case studies quantify the impact of rigorous modeling of uncertainty in terms of reduced number of experiments as compared to the currently used Classical Design methods. Fewer experiments translate to less time and resources spent, while reducing the important uncertainties relevant to decision makers. In an industrial setting, this represents real world benefits for large research projects in reducing development costs and time-to-market. Besides identifying the best experiments, the Bayesian approach also allows a prediction of the value of experimental data which is crucial in the decision making process. Finally, this work demonstrates the flexibility of the decision theory framework and the feasibility of Bayesian Design of Experiments for the complex process models commonly found in the field of Chemical Engineering.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 5
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In this work, a computationally efficient Bayesian framework for the reduction and characterization of parametric uncertainty in computationally demanding environmental 3-D numerical models has been developed. The framework is based on the combined application of the Stochastic Response Surface Method (SRSM, which generates accurate and computationally efficient statistically equivalent reduced models) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The application selected to demonstrate this framework involves steady state groundwater flow at the U.S. Department of Energy Savannah River Site General Separations Area, modeled using the Subsurface Flow And Contaminant Transport (FACT) code. Input parameter uncertainty, based initially on expert opinion, was found to decrease in all variables of the posterior distribution. The joint posterior distribution obtained was then further used for the final uncertainty analysis of the stream baseflows and well location hydraulic head values.
Author: Etienne de Rocquigny
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 0470770740
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 364
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Book Description
Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.
Author: Adolf Ebel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1402058756
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 367
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Book Description
This book contains the proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Air, Water and Soil Quality Modelling for Risk and Impact Assessment. The aim of the workshop was to further joint environmental compartment modelling and applications of control theory to environmental management. It provides an overview of ongoing research in this field regarding assessment of environmental risks and impacts.
Author: Deepak Gupta
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811662851
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 850
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Book Description
This book includes original unpublished contributions presented at the International Conference on Data Analytics and Management (ICDAM 2021), held at Jan Wyzykowski University, Poland, during June 2021. The book covers the topics in data analytics, data management, big data, computational intelligence, and communication networks. The book presents innovative work by leading academics, researchers, and experts from industry which is useful for young researchers and students.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN:
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 553
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Book Description
Discusses pollution from tobacco smoke, radon and radon progeny, asbestos and other fibers, formaldehyde, indoor combustion, aeropathogens and allergens, consumer products, moisture, microwave radiation, ultraviolet radiation, odors, radioactivity, and dirt and discusses means of controlling or eliminating them.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Soil pollution
Languages : en
Pages : 182
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Author: Sughosh Madhav
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119709709
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 448
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Book Description
This book contains both practical and theoretical aspects of groundwater resources relating to geochemistry. Focusing on recent research in groundwater resources, this book helps readers to understand the hydrogeochemistry of groundwater resources. Dealing primarily with the sources of ions in groundwater, the book describes geogenic and anthropogenic input of ions into water. Different organic, inorganic and emerging contamination and salinity problems are described, along with pollution-related issues affecting groundwater. New trends in groundwater contamination remediation measures are included, which will be particularly useful to researchers working in the field of water conservation. The book also contains diverse groundwater modelling examples, enabling a better understanding of water-related issues and their management. Groundwater Geochemistry: Pollution and Remediation offers the reader: An understanding of the quantitative and qualitative challenges of groundwater resources An introduction to the environmental geochemistry of groundwater resources A survey of groundwater pollution-related issues Recent trends in groundwater conservation and remediation Mathematical and statistical modeling related to groundwater resources Students, lecturers and researchers working in the fields of hydrogeochemistry, water pollution and groundwater will find Groundwater Geochemistry an essential companion.
Author:
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1428904816
Category : Environmental risk assessment
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
