Volatility Information Trading and Its Implications for Information Asymmetry, Option Spreads, and Implied Volatility Skew PDF Download
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Author: Wei Quan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 125
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Book Description
Information asymmetry is a critical element in today's financial markets. While asymmetric information related to directional information trading has been extensively studied in the existing literature, there is limited research and evidence on how volatility information trading impacts the options market. This dissertation studies, both theoretically and empirically, the behaviors of volatility information traders in options markets and the implications of their behaviors on information asymmetry and options pricing. I develop a model in which investors can trade multiple option contracts with varying strikes under an asymmetric framework. I show that volatility information trading is more likely to occur in Out of The Money (OTM) options if the overall presence of informed traders is low or if the relative liquidity in OTM options is better than At The Money (ATM) options. Moreover, I show that due to the variation in implicit leverage embedded in the option contracts, the OTM option contract contains a higher volatility information risk than the ATM option contract in equilibrium. In addition, I show that this volatility information risk differential plays a central role in forming the spread structure within an option series with the same underlying asset. Finally, I show that the shape of implied volatility skew (smile) is jointly determined by volatility uncertainty and heterogeneous information risk across the option contracts. I empirically examine the implications of my theory using US equity options data, including two intra-day trade and quote datasets from the Chicago Board Option Exchange (CBOE). I estimate the Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) variable to measure the volatility information risk in the option market. I show that OTM contracts, on average, have a higher probability of information trading than ATM contracts. I also document that volatility risk explains a considerable proportion of the spread variations in the US equity options market. Finally, I provide evidence that the difference in information asymmetry across strike prices not only helps to explain the dynamics of implied volatility skew but also has a significant impact on the degree to which a change in historical volatility affects the shape of the implied volatility skew.
Author: Wei Quan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 125
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Book Description
Information asymmetry is a critical element in today's financial markets. While asymmetric information related to directional information trading has been extensively studied in the existing literature, there is limited research and evidence on how volatility information trading impacts the options market. This dissertation studies, both theoretically and empirically, the behaviors of volatility information traders in options markets and the implications of their behaviors on information asymmetry and options pricing. I develop a model in which investors can trade multiple option contracts with varying strikes under an asymmetric framework. I show that volatility information trading is more likely to occur in Out of The Money (OTM) options if the overall presence of informed traders is low or if the relative liquidity in OTM options is better than At The Money (ATM) options. Moreover, I show that due to the variation in implicit leverage embedded in the option contracts, the OTM option contract contains a higher volatility information risk than the ATM option contract in equilibrium. In addition, I show that this volatility information risk differential plays a central role in forming the spread structure within an option series with the same underlying asset. Finally, I show that the shape of implied volatility skew (smile) is jointly determined by volatility uncertainty and heterogeneous information risk across the option contracts. I empirically examine the implications of my theory using US equity options data, including two intra-day trade and quote datasets from the Chicago Board Option Exchange (CBOE). I estimate the Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) variable to measure the volatility information risk in the option market. I show that OTM contracts, on average, have a higher probability of information trading than ATM contracts. I also document that volatility risk explains a considerable proportion of the spread variations in the US equity options market. Finally, I provide evidence that the difference in information asymmetry across strike prices not only helps to explain the dynamics of implied volatility skew but also has a significant impact on the degree to which a change in historical volatility affects the shape of the implied volatility skew.
Author: Jim Gatheral
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118046455
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204
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Book Description
Praise for The Volatility Surface "I'm thrilled by the appearance of Jim Gatheral's new book The Volatility Surface. The literature on stochastic volatility is vast, but difficult to penetrate and use. Gatheral's book, by contrast, is accessible and practical. It successfully charts a middle ground between specific examples and general models--achieving remarkable clarity without giving up sophistication, depth, or breadth." --Robert V. Kohn, Professor of Mathematics and Chair, Mathematical Finance Committee, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University "Concise yet comprehensive, equally attentive to both theory and phenomena, this book provides an unsurpassed account of the peculiarities of the implied volatility surface, its consequences for pricing and hedging, and the theories that struggle to explain it." --Emanuel Derman, author of My Life as a Quant "Jim Gatheral is the wiliest practitioner in the business. This very fine book is an outgrowth of the lecture notes prepared for one of the most popular classes at NYU's esteemed Courant Institute. The topics covered are at the forefront of research in mathematical finance and the author's treatment of them is simply the best available in this form." --Peter Carr, PhD, head of Quantitative Financial Research, Bloomberg LP Director of the Masters Program in Mathematical Finance, New York University "Jim Gatheral is an acknowledged master of advanced modeling for derivatives. In The Volatility Surface he reveals the secrets of dealing with the most important but most elusive of financial quantities, volatility." --Paul Wilmott, author and mathematician "As a teacher in the field of mathematical finance, I welcome Jim Gatheral's book as a significant development. Written by a Wall Street practitioner with extensive market and teaching experience, The Volatility Surface gives students access to a level of knowledge on derivatives which was not previously available. I strongly recommend it." --Marco Avellaneda, Director, Division of Mathematical Finance Courant Institute, New York University "Jim Gatheral could not have written a better book." --Bruno Dupire, winner of the 2006 Wilmott Cutting Edge Research Award Quantitative Research, Bloomberg LP
Author: Chuang-Chang Chang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
While numerous prior studies report that call-put implied volatility spreads positively predict future stock returns, recent literature shows that the predictive relation is negative for future call option returns. We investigate whether and, if so, how the predictive relation for options returns is influenced by various information events and conditions. In addition to confirming an opposite predictive relation for both call and put returns, we show that the predictive relation is stronger during periods of earnings announcement and/or high sentiment. In addition, we find that investors learn from informed trading and revise their predictability bias by examining the impacts of information asymmetry, stock liquidity, and options liquidity on the predictive relationships.
Author: Marco Klapper
Publisher: Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
ISBN: 3954891727
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 73
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Book Description
This study examines the kind of information ‘informed’ traders have prior to a takeover announcement using options of target firms and elaborates on the cross-sectional relationship between options and stocks around takeover announcements. Financial markets are driven by information and by individuals that generate, process, and disclose this information to the market. Naturally, there have to be individuals who possess more information about a firm or a future event than other market participants. Mergers and acquisitions are particularly interesting events in this regard because they can have significant implications for the firms and stakeholders involved, as well as for the competitive dynamics in the respective market. Because of the large potential price impact of such transactions, traders with private information about a prospective takeover are expected to trade on this information to make a profit. But who are these ‘informed traders’ and what kind of information do they possess? This study tries to give a respond to this question.
Author: George A. Fontanills
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471398165
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 360
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Book Description
It takes a special set of trading skills to thrive in today's intensely volatile markets, where point swings of plus or minus 200 points can occur on a weekly, sometimes daily, basis. The Volatility Course arms stock and options traders with those skills. George Fontanills and Tom Gentile provide readers with a deeper understanding of market volatility and the forces that drive it. They develop a comprehensive road map detailing how to identify its ups and downs. And they describe proven strategies and tools for quantifying volatility and confidently developing plans tailored to virtually any given market condition. The companion workbook provides step-by-step exercises to help you master the strategies outlined in The Volatility Course before putting them into action in the markets.
Author: George A. Fontanills
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471420220
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
In The Volatility Course, renowned trader George Fontanills and his partner Tom Gentile provided stock and options traders with all the information they need to trade volatility-by arming them with an arsenal of different tools to use in any market condition. But to become a successful volatility trader, you have to know how to effectively apply this knowledge and when to utilize these tools in real-world trading situations. In The Volatility Course Workbook, Fontanills and Gentile offer a wealth of practical exercises that will help further your understanding of volatility, as well as test and apply what you've learned before you take one step into the real markets-where time and money is a luxury you cannot afford to lose. This hands-on companion to The Volatility Course includes a complete answer key and covers such essentials as implied and historical volatility, VIX and other sentiment indicators, high- and low-volatility trading strategies, volatility skews, and much more.
Author: Alireza Javaheri
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118161025
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 222
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Book Description
Today?s traders want to know when volatility is a sign that the sky is falling (and they should stay out of the market), and when it is a sign of a possible trading opportunity. Inside Volatility Arbitrage can help them do this. Author and financial expert Alireza Javaheri uses the classic approach to evaluating volatility -- time series and financial econometrics -- in a way that he believes is superior to methods presently used by market participants. He also suggests that there may be "skewness" trading opportunities that can be used to trade the markets more profitably. Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, Inside Volatility Arbitrage will help traders discover when "skewness" may present valuable trading opportunities as well as why it can be so profitable.
Author: Sophie Xiaoyan Ni
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper investigates informed trading on stock volatility in the option market. Using a unique data set from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we construct non-market maker net demand for stock volatility from the trading volume of individual equity options. We find that this volatility demand is informative about the future realized volatility of underlying stocks which suggests the presence of volatility information traders in the option market. We also examine asset pricing implications of volatility information trading by measuring Kyle's lambda: The impact on option prices for each unit increase in volatility demand. The price impact is positive which is consistent with the existence of informational asymmetry about stock volatility. More importantly, we link the time variation in the price impact to the time variation in the degree of informational asymmetry. In particular, the price impact increases by over 50 percent as informational asymmetry about stock volatility intensifies in the days leading up to earnings announcements and diminishes to its normal level soon after the volatility uncertainty is resolved.
Author: Alireza Javaheri
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118943996
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 323
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Book Description
A new, more accurate take on the classical approach to volatility evaluation Inside Volatility Filtering presents a new approach to volatility estimation, using financial econometrics based on a more accurate estimation of the hidden state. Based on the idea of "filtering", this book lays out a two-step framework involving a Chapman-Kolmogorov prior distribution followed by Bayesian posterior distribution to develop a robust estimation based on all available information. This new second edition includes guidance toward basing estimations on historic option prices instead of stocks, as well as Wiener Chaos Expansions and other spectral approaches. The author's statistical trading strategy has been expanded with more in-depth discussion, and the companion website offers new topical insight, additional models, and extra charts that delve into the profitability of applied model calibration. You'll find a more precise approach to the classical time series and financial econometrics evaluation, with expert advice on turning data into profit. Financial markets do not always behave according to a normal bell curve. Skewness creates uncertainty and surprises, and tarnishes trading performance, but it's not going away. This book shows traders how to work with skewness: how to predict it, estimate its impact, and determine whether the data is presenting a warning to stay away or an opportunity for profit. Base volatility estimations on more accurate data Integrate past observation with Bayesian probability Exploit posterior distribution of the hidden state for optimal estimation Boost trade profitability by utilizing "skewness" opportunities Wall Street is constantly searching for volatility assessment methods that will make their models more accurate, but precise handling of skewness is the key to true accuracy. Inside Volatility Filtering shows you a better way to approach non-normal distributions for more accurate volatility estimation.
Author: Joseph A. Cherian
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
