Using Voter-Choice Modeling to Plan the Final Campaign in Runoff Elections PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Using Voter-Choice Modeling to Plan the Final Campaign in Runoff Elections PDF full book. Access full book title Using Voter-Choice Modeling to Plan the Final Campaign in Runoff Elections by Wagner A. Kamakura. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Wagner A. Kamakura
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
Even though runoff elections are one of the most (if not the most) common forms of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections has been rarely researched. Two-round elections provide unique opportunities for both political analyst and consultant. They allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior, rather than voting intentions, on a multi-party election on the first round, and validate their predictions on a two-party election in the final round. They provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. We use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide the political campaign in runoff elections. First, we apply a first-order Markov model to the two rounds and show that the two surviving candidates from the first round must focus their attention towards the voters for the eliminated candidates in the second round. We then apply a voter-choice model to the results from the first round in the most recent election (2014) to demonstrate how the political analyst and consultant can use the vote counts observed in the first round to better deploy the remaining campaign resources for the second round during the short time left before the final vote.
Author: Wagner A. Kamakura
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
Even though runoff elections are one of the most (if not the most) common forms of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections has been rarely researched. Two-round elections provide unique opportunities for both political analyst and consultant. They allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior, rather than voting intentions, on a multi-party election on the first round, and validate their predictions on a two-party election in the final round. They provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. We use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide the political campaign in runoff elections. First, we apply a first-order Markov model to the two rounds and show that the two surviving candidates from the first round must focus their attention towards the voters for the eliminated candidates in the second round. We then apply a voter-choice model to the results from the first round in the most recent election (2014) to demonstrate how the political analyst and consultant can use the vote counts observed in the first round to better deploy the remaining campaign resources for the second round during the short time left before the final vote.
Author: Thomas H. Neale
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437925693
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
Contents: (1) Intro.; (2) Competing Approaches: Direct Popular Election v. Electoral College Reform; (3) Direct Popular Election: Pro and Con; (4) Electoral College Reform: Pro and Con; (5) Electoral College Amendments Proposed in the 111th Congress; (6) Contemporary Activity in the States; (7) 2004: Colorado Amendment 36; (8) 2007-2008: The Presidential Reform Act (California Counts); (9) 2006-Present: National Popular Vote -- Direct Popular Election Through an Interstate Compact; Origins; The Plan; National Popular Vote, Inc.; Action in the State Legislatures; States That Have Approved NPV; National Popular Vote; (10) Prospects for Change -- An Analysis; (11) State Action -- A Viable Reform Alternative?; (12) Concluding Observations.
Author: Katherine M. Gehl
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
ISBN: 1633699242
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 316
Get Book Here
Book Description
Leading political innovation activist Katherine Gehl and world-renowned business strategist Michael Porter bring fresh perspective, deep scholarship, and a real and actionable solution, Final Five Voting, to the grand challenge of our broken political and democratic system. Final Five Voting has already been adopted in Alaska and is being advanced in states across the country. The truth is, the American political system is working exactly how it is designed to work, and it isn't designed or optimized today to work for us—for ordinary citizens. Most people believe that our political system is a public institution with high-minded principles and impartial rules derived from the Constitution. In reality, it has become a private industry dominated by a textbook duopoly—the Democrats and the Republicans—and plagued and perverted by unhealthy competition between the players. Tragically, it has therefore become incapable of delivering solutions to America's key economic and social challenges. In fact, there's virtually no connection between our political leaders solving problems and getting reelected. In The Politics Industry, business leader and path-breaking political innovator Katherine Gehl and world-renowned business strategist Michael Porter take a radical new approach. They ingeniously apply the tools of business analysis—and Porter's distinctive Five Forces framework—to show how the political system functions just as every other competitive industry does, and how the duopoly has led to the devastating outcomes we see today. Using this competition lens, Gehl and Porter identify the most powerful lever for change—a strategy comprised of a clear set of choices in two key areas: how our elections work and how we make our laws. Their bracing assessment and practical recommendations cut through the endless debate about various proposed fixes, such as term limits and campaign finance reform. The result: true political innovation. The Politics Industry is an original and completely nonpartisan guide that will open your eyes to the true dynamics and profound challenges of the American political system and provide real solutions for reshaping the system for the benefit of all. THE INSTITUTE FOR POLITICAL INNOVATION The authors will donate all royalties from the sale of this book to the Institute for Political Innovation.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Campaign funds
Languages : en
Pages : 52
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Andrew Reynolds
Publisher: Stockholm : International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 258
Get Book Here
Book Description
Publisher Description
Author: Zoltan Hajnal
Publisher: Public Policy Instit. of CA
ISBN: 1582130337
Category : California
Languages : en
Pages : 85
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Ben Reilly
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309519101
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 73
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper is one of a series being prepared for the National Research Council's Committee on International Conflict Resolution. The committee was organized in late 1995 to respond to a growing need for prevention, management, and resolution of violent conflict in the international arena, a concern about the changing nature and context of such conflict in the post-Cold War era, and a recent expansion of knowledge in the field. The committee's main goal is to advance the practice of conflict resolution by using the methods and critical attitude of science to examine the effectiveness of various techniques and concepts that have been advanced for preventing, managing, and resolving international conflicts. The committee's research agenda has been designed to supplement the work of other groups, particularly the Carnegie Corporation of New York's Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, which issued its final report in December 1997. The committee has identified a number of specific techniques and concepts of current interest to policy practitioners and has asked leading specialists on each one to carefully review and analyze available knowledge and to summarize what is known about the conditions under which each is or is not effective. These papers present the results of their work.
Author: Daniel G. Newman
Publisher: First Second
ISBN: 1250796415
Category : Comics & Graphic Novels
Languages : en
Pages : 288
Get Book Here
Book Description
An intriguing and accessible nonfiction graphic novel about the role wealth and influence play in American democracy. Despite our immense political divisions, Americans are nearly united in our belief that something is wrong with our government: It works for the wealthy and powerful, but not for anyone else. Unrig exposes the twisted roots of our broken democracy and highlights the heroic efforts of those unrigging the system to return power to We the People. This stirring nonfiction graphic novel by democracy reform leader Daniel G. Newman and artist George O’Connor takes readers behind the scenes—from the sweaty cubicles where senators dial corporate CEOs for dollars, to lavish retreats where billionaires boost their favored candidates, to the map rooms where lawmakers scheme to handpick their voters. Unrig also highlights surprising solutions that limit the influence of big money and redraw the lines of political power. If you're overwhelmed by negative news and despairing for the direction of our country, Unrig is a tonic that will restore your faith and reveal the path forward to fix our broken democracy.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Election officials
Languages : en
Pages : 96
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Jonathan Bendor
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 069113507X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 268
Get Book Here
Book Description
Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. This title provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors - politicians as well as voters - are only boundedly rational.
