U.S. Inflation, Labor's Share, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment PDF Download
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Author: Robert James Gordon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
The Phillips curve was init-ally formulated as a relationship between the rate of change and unemployment, yet what matters for stabilization policy is the rate of inflation, not the rate of wage change. This paper provides new estimates of Phillips curves for both prices and wages extending over the full 1954-87 period and several sub-periods. The most striking result in the paper is that wage changes do not contribute statistically to the explanation of inflation. Deviations in the growth of labor cost from the path of inflation cause changes in labor's income share, and changes in the profit share in the opposite direction, but do not feed back to the inflation rate. Additional findings are that the U.S. natural unemployment is still 6 percent, with no decline in the 1980s in response to the reversal of the demographic shifts that had raised the natural rate in the 1960s and 1970s. The U.S. inflation process is stable, with no evidence of structural shifts over the 1954-87 period. But the wage process is not stable: low rates of wage change in 1981-87 cannot be accurately predicted by wage equations estimated through 1980. Rather than representing a "new regime," wage behavior in the 1980s is the outcome of a longer-term process. The 1980s have witnessed a substantial decline in labor's income share that partly reverses the even larger increase in labor's share that occurred between 1965 and 1978
Author: Robert James Gordon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
The Phillips curve was init-ally formulated as a relationship between the rate of change and unemployment, yet what matters for stabilization policy is the rate of inflation, not the rate of wage change. This paper provides new estimates of Phillips curves for both prices and wages extending over the full 1954-87 period and several sub-periods. The most striking result in the paper is that wage changes do not contribute statistically to the explanation of inflation. Deviations in the growth of labor cost from the path of inflation cause changes in labor's income share, and changes in the profit share in the opposite direction, but do not feed back to the inflation rate. Additional findings are that the U.S. natural unemployment is still 6 percent, with no decline in the 1980s in response to the reversal of the demographic shifts that had raised the natural rate in the 1960s and 1970s. The U.S. inflation process is stable, with no evidence of structural shifts over the 1954-87 period. But the wage process is not stable: low rates of wage change in 1981-87 cannot be accurately predicted by wage equations estimated through 1980. Rather than representing a "new regime," wage behavior in the 1980s is the outcome of a longer-term process. The 1980s have witnessed a substantial decline in labor's income share that partly reverses the even larger increase in labor's share that occurred between 1965 and 1978
Author: Robert J. Gordon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : de
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Vincent Hogan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451856512
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that, while the NAIRU may have fallen slightly, it has not fallen by an amount sufficient to explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price shocks; in particular, the cost of imports has fallen sharply as the dollar has appreciated.
Author: Robert J. Gordon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : es
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Unemployment
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: United States. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Stephen Tokarick
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451856873
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This paper examines some of the factors that have been influential in keeping inflation low in the United States during 1995–98, despite strong growth and high levels of employment. Our results identify three important variables: declines in import prices, a slowdown in the growth of nonwage labor compensation, and a decline in labor costs. We also reassess the role of labor costs and import prices in determining price inflation.
Author: Martin Neil Baily
Publisher: Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 392
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Book Description
Labor market performance, competition, and inflation; Unemployment, unsatisfied demand for labor, and compensation growth, 1956-80; Inflation, flexible exchange rates and the natural - of unemployment; Feedback between monetary policy, labor market activity, and wage inflation, 1955-78.
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226066959
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 545
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Book Description
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
