Uncovering the Relationship Between Real Interest Rates and Economic Growth PDF Download
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Author: Bruce Hansen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We analyze long-span data on real interest rates and productivity growth with the focus on estimating their long-run correlation. The evidence points to a moderately negative correlation, meaning that real interest rates are mildly countercyclical, although the estimates are not precise. Our best estimate of the long-run correlation is -0.20. The implications for long-term projections are as follows. A negative correlation implies that long-run costs due to a period of low interest rates will tend to be slightly offset by a period of high productivity growth. Conversely, long-run benefits during a period of high interest rates will be offset by low productivity growth. This implication is consistent with the question raised in the project solicitation concerning why the trust fund stochastic simulations tend to show less long-run variability than do the alternative assumption projections. We also examine the implications for the variability of long-term projections of trust fund accumulation. As expected, we find that a negative correlation reduces the variability in the stochastic intervals. However, our simplified calculations suggest that the effect is modest.
Author: Bruce Hansen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We analyze long-span data on real interest rates and productivity growth with the focus on estimating their long-run correlation. The evidence points to a moderately negative correlation, meaning that real interest rates are mildly countercyclical, although the estimates are not precise. Our best estimate of the long-run correlation is -0.20. The implications for long-term projections are as follows. A negative correlation implies that long-run costs due to a period of low interest rates will tend to be slightly offset by a period of high productivity growth. Conversely, long-run benefits during a period of high interest rates will be offset by low productivity growth. This implication is consistent with the question raised in the project solicitation concerning why the trust fund stochastic simulations tend to show less long-run variability than do the alternative assumption projections. We also examine the implications for the variability of long-term projections of trust fund accumulation. As expected, we find that a negative correlation reduces the variability in the stochastic intervals. However, our simplified calculations suggest that the effect is modest.
Author: Nemat Shafik
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Crecimiento economico
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
The conventional wisdom says yes. But close examination suggests the answer is not nearly so clear-cut.
Author: Mr.Abdul Abiad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484361555
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Author: William Greider
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 0671675567
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 804
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Book Description
Reveals how the Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker engineered changes in America's economy.
Author: Giulia Mennillo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642246532
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 206
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Book Description
What is balanced growth? This book shows that the definitions and implications of the concept of balanced growth vary significantly among the different disciplines in economic science, but are not exclusive at all. Terms such as sustainability or balanced growth have become buzzwords. In practice, they are often a desirable vision rather than an achievable objective. Why? Doubts may arise about the extent to which such concepts are compatible with a modern market economy. Is balanced growth possible at all? Is it reasonable to accept balanced growth as a norm? Why should a balanced growth path be a desirable strategy to pursue for policymakers, managers, employees, and other societal stakeholders? Empirical evidence suggests that the actual worldwide economic growth is not balanced at all. Meanwhile, ever since the beginning of the financial and economic crisis in 2007 and its accompanying spillover effects, our globalizing world has uncompromisingly shown the flip side of its coin. Its crisis-prone character has intensified the discussion about our economic system’s sustainability. Questions related to acceptable sovereign debt levels, suitable trade deficits and surpluses, firms’ growth targets, resource management and efficiency have aroused high interest. What is the cause of the observed imbalances? In our opinion, this debate must involve rethinking the qualitative and quantitative dimension of our present understanding of the nature of economic growth. This book accompanies the 9th DocNet Management Symposium of the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. It contains contributions of the symposium's panel speakers, renowned authors to the field and young researchers. The Ph.D. students’ and post-doctoral association DocNet organizes the DocNet Management Symposium on a yearly basis with the goal to foster exchange between academia and practitioners.
Author: Mr.Pablo Emilio Guidotti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451852452
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
This paper examines the empirical relationship between long–run growth and the degree of financial development, proxied by the ratio of bank credit to the private sector as a fraction of GDP. We find that this proxy enters significantly and with a positive sign in growth regressions on a large cross–country sample, but with a negative sign using panel data for Latin America. Our findings suggest that the main channel of transmission from financial development to growth is the efficiency of investment, rather than its volume. We also present a model where the negative correlation between financial intermediation and growth results from financial liberalization in a poor regulatory environment.
Author: Ms.Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513581929
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This paper explores the contribution of credit growth and the composition of credit portfolio (corporate, consumer, and housing credit) to economic growth in emerging market economies (EMs). Using cross-country panel regressions, we find significant impact of credit growth on real GDP growth, with the magnitude and transmission channel of the impact of credit on real activity depending on the specific type of credit. In particular, the results show that corporate credit shocks influence GDP growth mainly through investment, while consumer credit shocks are associated with private consumption. In addition, taking Brazil as a case study, we use a time series model to examine the role that the expansion and composition of credit played in driving real GDP growth in the past. The results of the case study are consistent with those found in the cross-country panel regressions.
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484324897
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
We study bank portfolio allocations during the transition of the real sector to a knowledge economy in which firms use less tangible capital and invest more in intangible assets. We show that, as firms shift toward intangible assets that have lower collateral values, banks reallocate their portfolios away from commercial loans toward other assets, primarily residential real estate loans and liquid assets. This effect is more pronounced for large and less well capitalized banks and is robust to controlling for real estate loan demand. Our results suggest that increased firm investment in intangible assets can explain up to 20% of bank portfolio reallocation from commercial to residential lending over the last four decades.
Author: Asli Demirgüç-Kunt
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781785367427
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 1616
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Book Description
This two-volume collection brings together major contributions to the study of finance and growth. It includes conceptual and empirical papers that use a range of methodologies to discover the connections between financial systems - including financial contracts, markets, and intermediaries - and the functioning of the economy - including economic growth, entrepreneurship, technological innovation, poverty alleviation, the distribution of income, and the structure and volatility of economies. It also discusses contributions to the study of the legal, political, institutional, social capital and policy determinants of financial development. With an original introduction by the editors, this collection is an important resource for students, academics and practitioners.
Author: Robert J. Barro
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262025539
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 676
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Book Description
The long-awaited second edition of an important textbook on economic growth—a major revision incorporating the most recent work on the subject. This graduate level text on economic growth surveys neoclassical and more recent growth theories, stressing their empirical implications and the relation of theory to data and evidence. The authors have undertaken a major revision for the long-awaited second edition of this widely used text, the first modern textbook devoted to growth theory. The book has been expanded in many areas and incorporates the latest research. After an introductory discussion of economic growth, the book examines neoclassical growth theories, from Solow-Swan in the 1950s and Cass-Koopmans in the 1960s to more recent refinements; this is followed by a discussion of extensions to the model, with expanded treatment in this edition of heterogenity of households. The book then turns to endogenous growth theory, discussing, among other topics, models of endogenous technological progress (with an expanded discussion in this edition of the role of outside competition in the growth process), technological diffusion, and an endogenous determination of labor supply and population. The authors then explain the essentials of growth accounting and apply this framework to endogenous growth models. The final chapters cover empirical analysis of regions and empirical evidence on economic growth for a broad panel of countries from 1960 to 2000. The updated treatment of cross-country growth regressions for this edition uses the new Summers-Heston data set on world income distribution compiled through 2000.
