Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses PDF Download
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Author: Vivek Ghosal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498356176
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment, and the effects are primarily felt by the relatively smaller businesses; the impact on large businesses are generally non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, we need to focus on the relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses. We discuss implications for the framing of economic policy.
Author: Vivek Ghosal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498356176
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment, and the effects are primarily felt by the relatively smaller businesses; the impact on large businesses are generally non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, we need to focus on the relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses. We discuss implications for the framing of economic policy.
Author: Vivek Ghosal
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498356303
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author: John Haltiwanger
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022645407X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 488
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Book Description
Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges brings together and unprecedented group of economists, data providers, and data analysts to discuss research on the state of entrepreneurship and to address the challenges in understanding this dynamic part of the economy. Each chapter addresses the challenges of measuring entrepreneurship and how entrepreneurial firms contribute to economies and standards of living. The book also investigates heterogeneity in entrepreneurs, challenges experienced by entrepreneurs over time, and how much less we know than we think about entrepreneurship given data limitations. This volume will be a groundbreaking first serious look into entrepreneurship in the NBER's Income and Wealth series.
Author: Jeffrey R. Campbell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Employment (Economic theory)
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
There are significant differences in the dynamics of employment over the business cycle between young and old manufacturing plants. Young plants are more sensitive to aggregate disturbances, and they respond to them along different margins. We interpret these differences as reflecting greater organizational flexibility at young plants due to the changing nature of a plant's environment as it ages. In the presence of aggregate uncertainty, differences between young and old plants' organizational flexibility allows the model to reproduce their distinct cyclical characteristics. Previous empirical studies show that small firms generally respond by more to aggregate shocks than do large firms. To the extent that small firms tend to operate young plants, our analysis suggests an alternative to conventional explanations of this evidence which appeal to imperfections in credit markets.
Author: Dr. Chris Akaeze
Publisher: Xlibris Corporation
ISBN: 1524567167
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
Since early 1960s Nigeria, economy has been unstable and monolithic, centered on crude oil production and export. Instability of Nigeria economy is contributory to why only less than 20 percent small startup businesses survive the first five years. In spite of the unstable business environment, owners created approximately 17.3 million small businesses across Nigeria and employed a total of approximately thirty-two million workers with contribution of about 45 percent to the GDP. Based on theory of constraints, the purpose of this qualitative multiple-case study was to explore strategies required by some small business owners to survive Nigerias unstable economy beyond five years. Data were collected through semistructured interviews with three small business owners who had succeeded in business beyond the first five years from three different regions in Nigeria. The business strategies may help prospective and existing Nigerian small business owners improve profit and sustain business for survival beyond five years.
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498328539
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147555138X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
Articles in the March 2015 Research Bulletin focus on the oil market, energy subsidies, and output. The Research Summary on "An Exploration in Deep Corners of the Oil Market," authored by Rabah Arezki, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurekyan, and Hou Wang, examines fluctuations in oil prices. "The State Budget May Afford It All," by Christian Ebeke and Constant Lonkeng Ngbouana, reviews energy subsidies and their fiscal, distributional, and environmental costs. In the “Q&A” column Pau Rabanal takes a look at “Seven Questions on Potential Output.” The Bulletin includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, recommended readings from IMF Publications, and a call for papers for the next Annual Research Conference. A link with information and free access to IMF Economic Review is also included.
Author: Andrea Ciani
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815585
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 178
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Book Description
Economic and social progress requires a diverse ecosystem of firms that play complementary roles. Making It Big: Why Developing Countries Need More Large Firms constitutes one of the most up-to-date assessments of how large firms are created in low- and middle-income countries and their role in development. It argues that large firms advance a range of development objectives in ways that other firms do not: large firms are more likely to innovate, export, and offer training and are more likely to adopt international standards of quality, among other contributions. Their particularities are closely associated with productivity advantages and translate into improved outcomes not only for their owners but also for their workers and for smaller enterprises in their value chains. The challenge for economic development, however, is that production does not reach economic scale in low- and middle-income countries. Why are large firms scarcer in developing countries? Drawing on a rare set of data from public and private sources, as well as proprietary data from the International Finance Corporation and case studies, this book shows that large firms are often born large—or with the attributes of largeness. In other words, what is distinct about them is often in place from day one of their operations. To fill the “missing top†? of the firm-size distribution with additional large firms, governments should support the creation of such firms by opening markets to greater competition. In low-income countries, this objective can be achieved through simple policy reorientation, such as breaking oligopolies, removing unnecessary restrictions to international trade and investment, and establishing strong rules to prevent the abuse of market power. Governments should also strive to ensure that private actors have the skills, technology, intelligence, infrastructure, and finance they need to create large ventures. Additionally, they should actively work to spread the benefits from production at scale across the largest possible number of market participants. This book seeks to bring frontier thinking and evidence on the role and origins of large firms to a wide range of readers, including academics, development practitioners and policy makers.
Author: Jean-Pierre Bourguignon
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319161180
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 766
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Book Description
The focus of this volume is research carried out as part of the program Mathematics of Planet Earth, which provides a platform to showcase the essential role of mathematics in addressing problems of an economic and social nature and creating a context for mathematicians and applied scientists to foster mathematical and interdisciplinary developments that will be necessary to tackle a myriad of issues and meet future global economic and social challenges. Earth is a planet with dynamic processes in its mantle, oceans and atmosphere creating climate, causing natural disasters and influencing fundamental aspects of life and life-supporting systems. In addition to these natural processes, human activity has developed highly complex systems, including economic and financial systems; the World Wide Web; frameworks for resource management, transportation, energy production and utilization; health care delivery, and social organizations. This development has increased to the point where it impacts the stability and equilibrium in human societies. Issues such as financial and economic crisis, sustainability, management of resources, risk analysis, and global integration have come to the fore. Written by some of the world’s leading specialists, this book presents the proceedings of the International Conference and Advanced School Planet Earth, Dynamics, Games and Science II, held in Lisbon, Portugal, 28 August -6 September 2013, which was organized by the International Center of Mathematics (CIM) as a partner institution of the international program Mathematics of Planet Earth 2013. The book describes the state of the art in advanced research and ultimate techniques in modeling natural, economic and social phenomena. It constitutes a tool and a framework for researchers and graduate students, both in mathematics and applied sciences, focusing mainly on dynamical systems, game theory and applied sciences.
