Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems

Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems PDF Author: Reuben R. McDaniel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540237730
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 220

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Book Description
Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a variety of organizations, sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute, to explore strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides contributions to the conference, it includes a key digest by the editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science, as well as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues and in the application of complexity science to physical and social systems.

Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems

Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems PDF Author: Reuben R. McDaniel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540237730
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 220

Get Book Here

Book Description
Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a variety of organizations, sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute, to explore strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides contributions to the conference, it includes a key digest by the editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science, as well as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues and in the application of complexity science to physical and social systems.

Surprise, Uncertainty, and Mental Structures

Surprise, Uncertainty, and Mental Structures PDF Author: Jerome Kagan
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674007352
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 290

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Book Description
In the distinctive manner that has made him one of the most influential forces in developmental psychology, Kagan challenges scientific commonplaces about mental processes, pointing in particular to the significant but undervalued role of surprise and uncertainty in shaping behavior, emotion, and thought.

Diversity and Complexity

Diversity and Complexity PDF Author: Scott E. Page
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400835143
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 304

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Book Description
This book provides an introduction to the role of diversity in complex adaptive systems. A complex system--such as an economy or a tropical ecosystem--consists of interacting adaptive entities that produce dynamic patterns and structures. Diversity plays a different role in a complex system than it does in an equilibrium system, where it often merely produces variation around the mean for performance measures. In complex adaptive systems, diversity makes fundamental contributions to system performance. Scott Page gives a concise primer on how diversity happens, how it is maintained, and how it affects complex systems. He explains how diversity underpins system level robustness, allowing for multiple responses to external shocks and internal adaptations; how it provides the seeds for large events by creating outliers that fuel tipping points; and how it drives novelty and innovation. Page looks at the different kinds of diversity--variations within and across types, and distinct community compositions and interaction structures--and covers the evolution of diversity within complex systems and the factors that determine the amount of maintained diversity within a system. Provides a concise and accessible introduction Shows how diversity underpins robustness and fuels tipping points Covers all types of diversity The essential primer on diversity in complex adaptive systems

A Critique of Creativity and Complexity

A Critique of Creativity and Complexity PDF Author: Don Ambrose
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9462097739
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 305

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Book Description
In an increasingly complex world the natural human inclination is to oversimplify issues and problems to make them seem more comprehensible and less threatening. This tendency usually generates forms of dogmatism that diminish our ability to think creatively and to develop worthy talents. Fortunately, complexity theory is giving us ways to make sense of intricate, evolving phenomena. This book represents a broad, interdisciplinary application of complexity theory to a wide variety of phenomena in general education, STEM education, learner diversity and special education, social-emotional development, organizational leadership, urban planning, and the history of philosophy. The contributors provide nuanced analyses of the structures and dynamics of complex adaptive systems in these academic and professional fields.

Research Methods for Complexity Theory in Applied Linguistics

Research Methods for Complexity Theory in Applied Linguistics PDF Author: Phil Hiver
Publisher: Multilingual Matters
ISBN: 1788925769
Category : Reference
Languages : en
Pages : 301

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Book Description
This book provides practical guidance on research methods and designs that can be applied to Complex Dynamic Systems Theory (CDST) research. It discusses the contribution of CDST to the field of applied linguistics, examines what this perspective entails for research and introduces practical methods and templates, both qualitative and quantitative, for how applied linguistics researchers can design and conduct research using the CDST framework. Introduced in the book are methods ranging from those in widespread use in social complexity, to more familiar methods in use throughout applied linguistics. All are inherently suited to studying both dynamic change in context and interconnectedness. This accessible introduction to CDST research will equip readers with the knowledge to ensure compatibility between empirical research designs and the theoretical tenets of complexity. It will be of value to researchers working in the areas of applied linguistics, language pedagogy and educational linguistics and to scholars and professionals with an interest in second/foreign language acquisition and complexity theory.

Handbook on Cities and Complexity

Handbook on Cities and Complexity PDF Author: Portugali, Juval
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1789900123
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 456

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Book Description
Written by some of the founders of complexity theory and complexity theories of cities (CTC), this Handbook expertly guides the reader through over forty years of intertwined developments: the emergence of general theories of complex self-organized systems and the consequent emergence of CTC.

Complexity Science in Air Traffic Management

Complexity Science in Air Traffic Management PDF Author: Andrew Cook
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317162722
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 170

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Book Description
Air traffic management (ATM) comprises a highly complex socio-technical system that keeps air traffic flowing safely and efficiently, worldwide, every minute of the year. Over the last few decades, several ambitious ATM performance improvement programmes have been undertaken. Such programmes have mostly delivered local technological solutions, whilst corresponding ATM performance improvements have fallen short of stakeholder expectations. In hindsight, this can be substantially explained from a complexity science perspective: ATM is simply too complex to address through classical approaches such as system engineering and human factors. In order to change this, complexity science has to be embraced as ATM's 'best friend'. The applicability of complexity science paradigms to the analysis and modelling of future operations is driven by the need to accommodate long-term air traffic growth within an already-saturated ATM infrastructure. Complexity Science in Air Traffic Management is written particularly, but not exclusively, for transport researchers, though it also has a complementary appeal to practitioners, supported through the frequent references made to practical examples and operational themes such as performance, airline strategy, passenger mobility, delay propagation and free-flight safety. The book should also have significant appeal beyond the transport domain, due to its intrinsic value as an exposition of applied complexity science and applied research, drawing on examples of simulations and modelling throughout, with corresponding insights into the design of new concepts and policies, and the understanding of complex phenomena that are invisible to classical techniques.

Embracing Complexity

Embracing Complexity PDF Author: Jean G. Boulton
Publisher:
ISBN: 0199565252
Category : Complexity
Languages : en
Pages : 282

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Book Description
The book describes what it means to say the world is complex and explores what that means for managers, policy makers and individuals. The first part of the book is about the theory and ideas of complexity. This is explained in a way that is thorough but not mathematical. It compares differing approaches, and also provides a historical perspective, showing how such thinking has been around since the beginning of civilisation. It emphasises the difference between a complexity worldview and the dominant mechanical worldview that underpins much of current management practice. It defines the complexity worldview as recognising the world is interconnected, shaped by history and the particularities of context. The comparison of the differing approaches to modelling complexity is unique in its depth and accessibility. The second part of the book uses this lens of complexity to explore issues in the fields of management, strategy, economics, and international development. It also explores how to facilitate others to recognise the implications of adopting a complex rather than a mechanical worldview and suggests methods of research to explore systemic, path-dependent emergent aspects of situations. The authors of this book span both science and management, academia and practice, thus the explanations of science are authoritative and yet the examples of changing how you live and work in the world are real and accessible. The aim of the book is to bring alive what complexity is all about and to illustrate the importance of loosening the grip of a modernist worldview with its hope for prediction, certainty and control.

The Routledge Handbook of International Resilience

The Routledge Handbook of International Resilience PDF Author: David Chandler
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317655982
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 566

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Book Description
Resilience is increasingly discussed as a key concept across many fields of international policymaking from sustainable development and climate change, insecurity, conflict and terrorism to urban and rural planning, international aid provision and the prevention of and responses to natural and man-made disasters. Edited by leading academic authorities from a number of disciplines, this is the first handbook to deal with resilience as a new conceptual approach to understanding and addressing a range of interdependent global challenges. The Handbook is divided into nine sections: Introduction: contested paradigms of resilience; the challenges of resilience; governing uncertainty; resilience and neoliberalism; environmental concerns and climate change adaptation; urban planning; disaster risk reduction and response; international security and insecurity; the policy and practices of international development. Highlighting how resilience-thinking is increasingly transforming international policy-making and government and institutional practices, this book will be an indispensable source of information for students, academics and the wider public interested in resilience, international relations and international security.

System Architecture

System Architecture PDF Author: Edward Crawley
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780133975345
Category : Systems engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
For courses in engineering and technical management Architecture and Function of Complex Systems System architecture is the study of early decision making in complex systems. This text teaches how to capture experience and analysis about early system decisions, and how to choose architectures that meet stakeholder needs, integrate easily, and evolve flexibly. With case studies written by leading practitioners, from hybrid cars to communications networks to aircraft, this text showcases the science and art of system architecture.