Three Essays on Risk Filtering in Contract Theory PDF Download
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Author: Daniel Kauth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 102
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Author: Daniel Kauth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 102
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Author: Wei Feng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Author: Simone Bernardi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Simon Baumgartner
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Abdullah Al Mansour
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Book Description
This thesis consists of three essays on risk management in crude oil markets. In the first essay, the valuation of an oil sands project is studied using real options approach. Oil sands production consumes substantial amount of natural gas during extracting and upgrading. Natural gas prices are known to be stochastic and highly volatile which introduces a risk factor that needs to be taken into account. The essay studies the impact of this risk factor on the value of an oil sands project and its optimal operation. The essay takes into account the co-movement between crude oil and natural gas markets and, accordingly, proposes two models: one incorporates a long-run link between the two markets while the other has no such link. The valuation problem is solved using the Least Square Monte Carlo (LSMC) method proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) for valuing American options. The valuation results show that incorporating a long-run relationship between the two markets is a very crucial decision in the value of the project and in its optimal operation. The essay shows that ignoring this long-run relationship makes the optimal policy sensitive to the dynamics of natural gas prices. On the other hand, incorporating this long-run relationship makes the dynamics of natural gas price process have a very low impact on valuation and the optimal operating policy. In the second essay, the relationship between the slope of the futures term structure, or the forward curve, and volatility in the crude oil market is investigated using a measure of the slope based on principal component analysis (PCA). The essay begins by reviewing the main theories of the relation between spot and futures prices and considering the implication of each theory on the relation between the slope of the forward curve and volatility. The diagonal VECH model of Bollerslev et al. (1988) was used to analyse the relationship between of the forward curve slope and the variances of the spot and futures prices and the covariance between them. The results show that there is a significant quadratic relationship and that exploiting this relation improves the hedging performance using futures contracts. The third essay attempts to model the spot price process of crude oil using the notion of convenience yield in a regime switching framework. Unlike the existing studies, which assume the convenience yield to have either a constant value or to have a stochastic behaviour with mean reversion to one equilibrium level, the model of this essay extends the Brennan and Schwartz (1985) model to allows for regime switching in the convenience yield along with the other parameters. In the essay, a closed form solution for the futures price is derived. The parameters are estimated using an extension to the Kalman filter proposed by Kim (1994). The regime switching one-factor model of this study does a reasonable job and the transitional probabilities play an important role in shaping the futures term structure implied by the model.
Author: Joseph E. Stiglitz
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199533709
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 767
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Book Description
The first in a series of six volumes containing a selection of Joseph Stiglitz's most important and widely cited work, this volume includes a number of seminal papers on the economics of information. The volume contains substantial additional original commentary by Joseph Stiglitz on his work and the field more generally.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dissertations, Academic
Languages : en
Pages : 734
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dissertation abstracts
Languages : en
Pages : 768
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Author: Patrick Bolton
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262025768
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 746
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Book Description
A comprehensive introduction to contract theory, emphasizing common themes and methodologies as well as applications in key areas. Despite the vast research literature on topics relating to contract theory, only a few of the field's core ideas are covered in microeconomics textbooks. This long-awaited book fills the need for a comprehensive textbook on contract theory suitable for use at the graduate and advanced undergraduate levels. It covers the areas of agency theory, information economics, and organization theory, highlighting common themes and methodologies and presenting the main ideas in an accessible way. It also presents many applications in all areas of economics, especially labor economics, industrial organization, and corporate finance. The book emphasizes applications rather than general theorems while providing self-contained, intuitive treatment of the simple models analyzed. In this way, it can also serve as a reference for researchers interested in building contract-theoretic models in applied contexts.The book covers all the major topics in contract theory taught in most graduate courses. It begins by discussing such basic ideas in incentive and information theory as screening, signaling, and moral hazard. Subsequent sections treat multilateral contracting with private information or hidden actions, covering auction theory, bilateral trade under private information, and the theory of the internal organization of firms; long-term contracts with private information or hidden actions; and incomplete contracts, the theory of ownership and control, and contracting with externalities. Each chapter ends with a guide to the relevant literature. Exercises appear in a separate chapter at the end of the book.
Author: Angus Deaton
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521296762
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 468
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Book Description
For advanced courses in economic analysis, this book presents the economic theory of consumer behavior, focusing on the applications of the theory to welfare economies and econometric analysis.
