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Author: Keqing Liu
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Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Keqing Liu
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Languages : en
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Author: Alejandro Buesa Olavarrieta
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 136
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This doctoral thesis gathers three studies on different aspects of macroprudential policy and financial stability. The research questions featured in each of its parts are to be seen as complementary: one chapter concentrates on mortgage credit markets, another one explores the business decisions of banking institutions, while the remaining one considers the potential international implications of borrower-based measures.The first paper introduces a simplified picture of the mortgage credit market and itsbehaviour under regulatory constraints related to borrower-based macroprudential policies. More precisely, the chapter presents an assessment of the effects of loan-to-value (LTV) ratiocaps for housing mortgages using an agent-based model. Sellers, buyers and banks interact within a computational framework that enables the application of LTV caps to a one-stephousing market. The initial exercise, which relies upon simulated distributions of buyers and sellers, is followed by a more realistic setup calibrated through actual European data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. In both cases, the application of an LTV cap results in a modified distribution of buyers along property values, bidding prices and properties sold, depending on the shape of the probability distributions of the LTV ratio, wealth and debt-to- income ratios considered. The results are of similar magnitude to other studies in the literature embodying other analytical approaches and suggest that this methodology can potentially be used to gauge the impact of common macroprudential measures...
Author: 林姿妤
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Languages : en
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Author: 王柏元
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Category :
Languages : en
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Author: Benedikt Mario Kolb
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Category : Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
Languages : en
Pages : 191
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This thesis focuses on recent monetary and macroprudential policies addressing the Financial Crisis. Chapter 1 stresses the role of central-bank communication. In particular, shocks derived from movements in federal funds futures prices during monetary policy announcement days have become popular for analysing U.S. monetary policy. While the literature often considers only surprise changes in the policy rate ("action shocks"), we distinguish between action and "communication shocks" (surprise announcements about future rates), using a novel decomposition of futures price movements. Our results indicate that communication shocks are the main driver of U.S. monetary policy shocks and that they explain a substantial share of variation in production. Chapter 2 turns to a macroprudential topic: How will a tightening in aggregate bank capital requirements affect the real economy? In this paper, we investigate this using a narrative index of regulatory US bank capital requirement changes for the period 1980M1 to 2016M8. Our results robustly suggest that a tightening in capital requirements leads to a temporary drop in lending and economic activity. The aggregate capital ratio and the level of bank capital increase permanently. Our results suggest that permanently higher capital requirements have no lasting negative effect on the real economy. Finally, Chapter 3 looks at asset purchases by the ECB. Their declared goal is to revive inflation, but purchases of which asset will be best suited for this? I address this question in a DSGE model with a role for three different asset classes: Government bonds, securitised financial assets and corporate sector bonds, which affect the economy via different channels. I investigate the impact of asset purchases in an environment of low inflation and a policy rate at the zero lower bound. Purchases of government bonds appear most effective in countering disinflationary episodes, while those of securitised assets have less impact.
Author: Joaquim Eloi Cirne de Toledo
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 476
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Author: Adnan Kummer
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Category : Economic stabilization
Languages : en
Pages : 240
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This dissertation consists of three essays on monetary policy. The first essay estimates the impact of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy rate changes on individual member country's economic output in Eurozone. The results show that real output responds differently in different Eurozone members and highlight the "convergence gap" that continues to exist among member countries. Based on their output response, the sample countries are divided into two groups which exhibit the breakdown of monetary policy transmission mechanism in the currency union. The second essay uses the Taylor rule model to calculate the optimal interest rates for individual eurozone members based on their local economic variables of output gap and inflation rate. The results indicate that at the aggregate level the Taylor rule tracks the ECB policy rate very closely but when the rule is applied to individual Eurozone countries, the models predicts very different rates for member economies. Additionally, the Eurozone sample countries are organized into two sets of groups namely Core versus Periphery and North versus South to analyze whether the national monetary policy requirements of member countries can be grouped based upon their economic characteristics and on their geographical location. In both cases, the rule predicts different rates for the groups compared to the ECB policy rates. The third essay investigates the institutional arrangement of monetary policy and its interaction with macroprudential policy in economic and financial stability. The interactions of macroprudential policy with both monetary and fiscal policy are explored to determine the effectiveness of this new policy framework. The analysis shows that while political and budget support are essential for the policy's design and implementation, there should be no connection politically with the execution of macroprudential policy because of short-sightedness of the political process which could potentially delay or jeopardize the roll-out of the policy's tools when necessary. Overall, the dissertation contributes to the growing literature on monetary policy in currency unions and offers policy insights to overcome the obstacles of monetary policy transmission mechanism and to develop a more robust policy framework for economic and financial stability.
Author: Aida Garcia-Lazaro
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Shuaiyi Liu
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Category : Electronic books
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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The thesis is made up of three chapters that work on three distinct topics in macroeconomics. The first chapter is a theoretical work on monetary policy, in which a coherent and intuitive large-scale Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model matching with particulars of the Chinese economy is established to understand how and why Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) works within Chinese monetary policy regime. The second chapter reveals the relationship between phenomenon of inequality and secular stagnation with a three-period Overlapping Generations (OLG) model built within a heterogeneous agent framework. It also points out workable ways of conducting macroprudential policy given the aforesaid two phenomena. The third chapter both theoretically and empirically examines effectiveness of the currency board system in Hong Kong using an advanced macroeconomic modeling toolbox as well as a workhorse model used by a mass of central banks that is further modified to be in line with reality of the Hong Kong economy.
Author: Joan Camilo Granados Castro
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Category : Economic policy
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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In this dissertation, I study the international interactions of financial regulations and the macroeconomic implications of accounting for the borderless dimension of these policies when designing macroprudential coordinated policy frameworks. In the first chapter, I revise empirically whether there is evidence supporting the existence of strategic policy interactions between regulators based in different economies. I find that, in effect, for some types of economies and instruments, the foreign prudential policies are relevant benchmarks that they consider when adjusting their policies and point that these additional adjustments, or interactions, can generate the scope for policy coordination improvements. In chapter two, I set a theoretical framework for thinking about the international policy macroeconomic spillovers that could justify such interactions. I specify the relevant factors these may depend on, the relevance of these policies for mitigating financial market frictions, and the importance of considering interactions both at the global level, between centers and peripheries, as well as regionally between peripheries alone. In the third chapter, I argue a dynamic setup is necessary for a complete welfare evaluation of potential cooperative setups given the persistence of the effect of policy on the regulated banks. Then I set a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model with multi-peripheral features to study when coordination can be fruitful and when it becomes counterproductive. I obtain the mechanisms driving the potential welfare and financial stability gains of coordination, and generate policy recommendations on when to engage in a cooperative effort and why. I concludethe dissertation mentioning potential extensions of these studies for future work. More specifically, in chapter one, I obtain that domestic policymakers can adjust their macroprudential toolkit depending on whether they perceive positive or negative financial stability spillovers stemming from foreign economies which will be an instrument-specific feature. When the effect is positive the regulators engage in policy substitution efforts and relax their policy stance, choosing to rely on the stricter regulations of other countries. On the contrary, when the potential effect is negative the regulators engage in policy competition and match the foreign policy tightenings with local stricter policies. The former is found between interactions between peer, or similar economies, such as advanced reacting to advanced, or emerging countries reacting to other emerging, while the latter effect is found between interactions of non-similar economies (emerging-to-advanced, and advanced-to-emerging). In chapter two, I set up a three-country center-multiperpheral model, where I model a regulated banking sector in each economy that is subject to financial agency frictions. In that setup the financial center will act as a global creditor which I found will be a key feature in simultaneously dampening the local effects, and increasing the cross-border effects of themacroprudential policies at the center, which jointly will imply important international spillovers towards the emerging economies. I explain how coordinated policies imply a mitigation in the level of interventionism required for the treatmeant of the financial frictions which implies that coordinated policies can be worth pursuing in presence of important implementation costs of the regulations. Finally, in the last chapter, I make a comprehensive welfare comparison of coordinated, semi-coordinated, and decentralized policy frameworks in a multilateral environment, and explain that a necessary condition for policy coordination to be welfare improving is that the financial center acts cooperatively, otherwise policy cooperation becomes counterproductive. I identifytwo mechanisms that generate these welfare gains, namely the cancelation of the incentives to manipulate the global interest rates with policy within a cooperative coalition, and a policy motive for substituting local capital accumulation at the financial center for global intermediation towards the peripheries. I show these mechanisms work better with coalitions where more emerging economies interact cooperatively with the center and provide policy recommendations on when cooperation is worth pursuing.
