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Author: Perry Warjiyo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
This note describes Indonesia's experiences of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the country's policy responses to global monetary developments, with a focus on the period following the Federal Reserve's announcement in May 2013 of its plans to begin tapering its quantitative easing measures. The Fed's unconventional monetary policy and its normalisation process have given rise to the policy “trilemma” of trying to find the optimal interest rate response while maintaining exchange rate flexibility and managing capital flows. In the case of Indonesia, we have managed this “trilemma” through a mix of monetary and macroprudential policies. Clear communication, policy coordination with the government on inflation, fiscal and structural reforms, as well as central bank cooperation on strengthening regional financial arrangements have also played a crucial role in these efforts.Three particular issues are discussed here. First, the setting of interest rates supported by exchange rate flexibility and capital flow management in response to the policy “trilemma” arising from global monetary developments. Second, the efficacy of macroprudential measures in reinforcing the lending channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism on the back of volatile capital flows and an underdeveloped financial market. Third, the importance to domestic monetary and financial system stability of financial market deepening through its role in smoothing out the transmission of global monetary developments. The note concludes with an agenda for further strengthening macroeconomic stability in the short term and for accelerating reforms to promote sustainable and balanced growth in the medium term.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2498104" target="_blank" The Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy to the Emerging Markets.
Author: Perry Warjiyo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
This note describes Indonesia's experiences of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the country's policy responses to global monetary developments, with a focus on the period following the Federal Reserve's announcement in May 2013 of its plans to begin tapering its quantitative easing measures. The Fed's unconventional monetary policy and its normalisation process have given rise to the policy “trilemma” of trying to find the optimal interest rate response while maintaining exchange rate flexibility and managing capital flows. In the case of Indonesia, we have managed this “trilemma” through a mix of monetary and macroprudential policies. Clear communication, policy coordination with the government on inflation, fiscal and structural reforms, as well as central bank cooperation on strengthening regional financial arrangements have also played a crucial role in these efforts.Three particular issues are discussed here. First, the setting of interest rates supported by exchange rate flexibility and capital flow management in response to the policy “trilemma” arising from global monetary developments. Second, the efficacy of macroprudential measures in reinforcing the lending channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism on the back of volatile capital flows and an underdeveloped financial market. Third, the importance to domestic monetary and financial system stability of financial market deepening through its role in smoothing out the transmission of global monetary developments. The note concludes with an agenda for further strengthening macroeconomic stability in the short term and for accelerating reforms to promote sustainable and balanced growth in the medium term.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2498104" target="_blank" The Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy to the Emerging Markets.
Author: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513529730
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
Author: Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475553498
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.
Author: Mr.Andrew Berg
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484351126
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer and Romer (1989), and center on a significant tightening of monetary policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find clear evidence of the transmission mechanism in most of the countries, and argue that deviations can be explained by differences in the policy regime in place.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498344062
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Author: Mr.Serhan Cevik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505396
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms - strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets - would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries.
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
By combining industry-level data on output and prices with monetary policy rates for a panel of 88 countries, this paper analyzes how the effects of monetary policy vary with certain industry characteristics. Next to being interesting in their own right, our results are informative on the importance of various transmission mechanisms (as they are expected to vary systematically with the included characteristics). Rather than relying on standard monetary policy shock identification, we overcome the endogeneity problem by taking a differential approach (interacting our monetary policy measure with industry-level characteristics). Our results suggest that monetary contractions reduce output by more in industries featuring assets that are more difficult to collateralize (as predicted by the balance sheet channel) and in industries more reliant on international trade (as predicted by the exchange rate channel). Consistent with the financial accelerator mechanism, we find that the balance sheet channel becomes stronger during bad times. At the same time, we do not find evidence supporting the traditional interest rate channel of monetary policy; the same goes for the cost channel.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Jean Boivin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Globalization
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
In this paper, we quantify the changes in the relationship between international forces and many key US macroeconomic variables over the 1984-2005 period, and analyze changes in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. We do so by estimating a Factor-Augmented VAR on a large set of US and international data series. We find that the role of international factors in explaining US variables has been changing over the 1984-2005 period. However, while some US series have become more correlated with global factors, there is little evidence suggesting that these factors have become systematically more important. We don't find strong evidence of a change in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy due to global forces. Taking our point estimates literally, global forces do not seem to have played an important role in the US monetary transmission mechanism between 1984 and 1999. In addition, since the year 2000, the initial response of the US economy following a monetary policy shock --- the first 6 to 8 quarters --- is essentially the same as the one that has been observed in the 1984-1999 period. However, point estimates suggest that the growing importance of global forces might have contributed to reducing some of the persistence in the responses, two or more years after the shocks. Overall, we conclude that if global forces have had an effect on the monetary transmission mechanism, this is a recent phenomenon.
Author: Ms.Prachi Mishra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455208884
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This paper reviews monetary transmission mechanisms in low-income countries (LICs) to identify aspects of the channels that may operate differently in LICs relative to advanced and emerging economies. Given the weak institutional frameworks, reduced role of securities markets, imperfect competition in the banking sector and the resulting high cost of bank lending to private firms, the traditional channels (interest rate, bank lending, and asset price) are impaired in LICs. The exchange rate channel is also undermined by central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. These conclusions are supported by review of the institutional frameworks, statistical analysis, and previous literature.
