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Author: Nawal K. Taneja
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics, Commercial
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
Author: Nawal K. Taneja
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics, Commercial
Languages : en
Pages : 20
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Nawal K. Taneja
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics, Commercial
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
Introduction and summary: Forecasting air transportation demand has indeed become a complex and risky business in recent years, especially in view of unpredictable fuel prices, high inflation rates, a declining rate of aggregate population growth, and an uncertainty with respect to the regulatory structure in the aviation industry. Since the stakes are very high, the need for accurate forecasting and for a more complete understanding of the total system of air transportation continues to grow. Past forecasting methods have become inadequate for at least two reasons. First, the trend extrapolation method of forecasting is no longer appropriate due to the significant changes in both the economic and the operating environments in recent years. Second, the more sophisticated econometric forecasting models are only as good as our understanding of the total air transportation system on the one hand, and the availability of data on the other. In light of these deficiencies, the dual needs for improving forecasting methods and for increasing the reliability of data are more critical now than ever before. In short, there is a compelling need to perform basic research to improve both the forecasting methods and the data in the aviation industry. Among the various types of forecasts of aviation activity desired by the government agencies, the air carriers, the airframe and engine manufacturers, the airport authorities, and the financial community, one component that plays a critical role in long-range planning pertains to the future fleet requirements for the aviation industry. Forecast items needed with respect to future fleet requirements include types, configuration, ranges, and technologies of new aircraft so that the industry and government can coordinate their resources to maximize the interests of the producers, regulators and consumers of future air service. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), with its twin missions of both aeronautics and astronautics, has been focusing its attention on the aeronautics component in recent years. In this overall responsibility, the Systems Study Division of NASA-Ames Research Center has as one of its main objectives the development of a better understanding of the civil air transportation system in the United States, with emphasis placed on the proper and timely application of new technology. In order to fulfill this objective, the division has a critical need for projections of the growth of demand and for the determination of the role of technology in the future growth of air transportation. Before undertaking an extensive research effort in the area of air transportation demand analysis and forecasting, NASA-Ames attempted to solicit the views of the industry and other government agencies at a one day informal meeting in San Francisco in December 1974. The meeting was attended by about twenty experts from the carriers, airframe and engine manufacturers, U.S. Department of Transportation, universities and NASA. The goals of this mini-workshop were three-fold: the first objective was to determine the ways in which the NASA-Ames Systems Study Division could play a supportive role in this area; second, it was essential to receive an informal endorsement from the industry and other government agencies; and third, it was necessary to determine the direction for the proposed research. This meeting concluded with a general agreement on a definite need for future research, with the belief that not only could NASA-Ames play a supportive role but, more important, that it could play a catalytic role. However, due to the limited participation in this one-day meeting and the assistance that the proposed research could have provided to a wide variety of users, a more extensive workshop was proposed at that time, possibly to be co-sponsored by other government agencies. Subsequent to the December 1974 meeting, further discussions with the U.S. Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) resulted in a three-day workshop co-sponsored by the CAB, DOT and NASA. The reasons for the joint sponsorship by the CAB and DOT reflected a desire from these agencies to participate in the search for methodologies and information on the long-range benefits, problems and issues of technological advances in aviation and to assist NASA in deploying its funds on these matters in the most productive and efficient ways. The overall objectives of this workshop were four-fold: first, to investigate the state-of-the-art in air transportation demand forecasting; second, to determine the needs of the various government agencies and the industry; third, to assess the possibility of long-term government sponsorship of basic research to improve the forecasting of air transportation activity; and fourth, to determine the most promising areas of research in air transportation and systems analysis. This workshop was organized by the Flight Transportation Laboratory of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Transportation Center at Northwestern University and was held at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C. on June 2-4, 1975. The meeting was attended by one hundred experts, thirty-three of whom made extensive presentations. This report then is a summary of the highlights of the presentations delivered at the workshop, with appropriate interjections and editorial comments as perceived by its authors.
Author: Milan Janic
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9789056992446
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 322
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Book Description
Presenting a comprehensive coverage, Air Transport System Analysis and Modelling is a unique text dealing with the analysis and modelling of the processes and operations carried out in all three parts of the air transport system, namely, airports, air traffic control and airlines. Seen from a planners point of view, this book provides insights into current methods and also gives details of new research. Methods are given for the analysis and modelling of the capacity, quality and economics of the service offered to users and includes illustrative analytical and simulation models of the systems operations supported by an appropriate analysis of real world events and applications. Undergraduates and graduates in the field of air transport planning and technology, applied operations research and applied transport economics will find this book to be of interest, as will specialists involved with transport institutes and consulting firms, policy makers dealing with air transport and the analysts and planners employed at air transport enterprises.
Author: Milan Janić
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000227391
Category : Transportation
Languages : en
Pages : 391
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Book Description
This book presents a comprehensive analysis and modelling of demand, capacity, quality of services, economics, and sustainability of the air transport system and its main components - - airports, airlines, and ATC/ATM (Air Traffic Control/Management). Airports consist of the airside and landside area characterized by their capacities for handling demand such as aircraft, air passengers, and air freight/cargo shipments. Regarding spatial configuration, airlines generally operate hub-and-spoke (conventional or legacy airlines) and point-to-point (LCCs - Low Cost Carriers) air route networks. Their fleets consisting of different aircraft types provide transport capacity for serving demand including air passengers and freight/cargo shipments. The ATC/ATM includes the controlled airspace, traffic management and control facilities and equipment on the ground, space, and on board aircraft, and the ATC Controllers). They all provide capacity to handle demand consisting of the flights between origin and destination airports carried out by airline aircraft. The outcome from the interrelationships between demand and capacity at these components materializes as the quality of services. At airports and airlines this is generally expressed by congestion and delays of aircraft, air passengers, and freight/cargo shipments. At ATC/ATM, this is expressed by delays, horizontal and vertical in-efficiency, and safety of flights. Economics of each component relate to its revenues, costs, and profits from handling demand, i.e., providing services of given quality. The sustainability of air transport system has become increasingly important issue for many internal and external actors/stakeholders involved to deal with. This has implied increasing the system’s overall social-economic effects/benefits while reducing or maintaining constant impacts/costs on the environment and society at both global and regional/local scale under conditions of continuous medium- to long term growth.
Author: MILAN. JANIC
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780367632427
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Air Transport System Analysis and Modelling is a unique book dealing with analysis and modelling of the demand, capacity, quality of services, economics, and sustainability of three main components of the air transport system - airports, ATC (Air Traffic Control), and airlines.
Author: United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 274
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Book Description
Author: Steven Edward Eriksen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics, Commercial
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
Introduction: Within the last ten years significant advances in the state-of-the art in air travel demand analysis stimulated researchers in the domestic air transportation field. Among these advances, researchers in academia, industry, and government have investigated the relationship between observed demand and general level of economic activity such as GNP on the one hand and general passenger-perceived characteristics such as fare on the other hand. Advanced econometric techniques have been used to develop these relationships. However, to date very little effort has been devoted to investigating the impact of a change in the supply of air transportation service on the demand for air transportation. Thus, for all practical purposes, there are no analytical economic models which show the complex interrelationship between the supply of and the demand for air transportation. This research report is an attempt to begin to understand these complex interrelationships. During the sixties the demand for air transportation services experienced substantial growth rates due to the fact that fares (in constant dollars) were continually declining (because of increasing productivity of transport aircraft) and partly due to the fact that the level of service offered was continuously increasing, again the result of improvements in technology. However, at the beginning of the current decade the growth in the demand for air transportation services began to exhibit radical and unforeseen changes. These changes were caused by a reversal of the impact of the two factors mentioned earlier, namely that the fares were now increasing (due to rapidly increasing costs, particularly with respect to the price of fuel) and the level of service was decreasing, particularly evidenced by fewer total flights and fewer direct flights. The demand models developed in the sixties were adequate to caution airline managers on the impact of changes in the general state of the economy and changes in fare level. However, since these models did not adequately incorporate the factors relating to the supply of air transportation services, very few analysts were able to predict the impact of a change in the level of service. As a result, the industry was quite surprised to observe suppressed traffic growth rates when the level of service offered was changed as a result of a general recession in the economy and shortage of fuel. Due to the deterioration in the financial position, the carriers began to cut costs by reducing further the level of service offered. However, instead of improving the profitability of the carriers, this strategy further suppressed traffic and hence revenue, resulting in even lower profits. On the basis of evidence from the above discussion, there is now a critical need for the development of economic models that simultaneously incorporate the factors effecting both the demand and the supply of air transportation services. In order to begin to fulfill this need, the Aeronautical Systems Office of Ames Research Center at NASA funded a research project to investigate how the supply related variables (particularly those related directly to technology) contribute to the determination of the demand for air transportation. The research was divided into two parts. The first part, mostly exploratory in nature, was designed to determine whether sophisticated economic models incorporating supply and demand factors can be developed given the state-of-the-art in econometric modeling and the limitations of the existing data. During this phase the thrust of the research effort was first to analyze the existing data, second to analyze the components of the levels of service and third to develop simple models which serve merely to generate avenues of pursuit for further research in the second phase. This report presents the results of the initial exploratory phase of the research project and contains directions for research in the second phase to be carried out in 1976. During the first phase, research efforts were directed at investigating single equation models incorporating a level of service index in addition to the usual fare and socioeconomic terms. The models were calibrated using data from fifty-eight region pairs over a sixteen year period. The level of service index developed in this report represents an improvement over the one incorporated in past models (namely flight frequency). The new level of service index is a nondimensional generalized trip time scaled from zero to one, which takes into account not only the number of flights, but also number of intermediate stops, direct or connecting service, speed of aircraft and most important, the matching of the departure schedules to time variability of demand. Based upon the preliminary results, it appears that the level of service is a more appropriate explanatory variable in the demand model than just frequency. The significant results of the demand models developed in this exploratory stage of the research will be discussed in the following sections of this report. Section 2 describes the reasons for calibrating the models based upon region pair data rather than city pair data. Section 3 differentiates between the supply and demand components of air travel and elaborates upon the development of the level of service index. Section 4 discusses the sampling procedures used in determining the region pairs. Section 5 contains the specification of the single equation models and presents the empirical results. The final section of this report outlines the plans for future research in Phase II of this project.
Author: Eva-Maria Cronrath
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 135174397X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 550
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Book Description
The air transport industry has high economic impact; it supports more than 60 million jobs worldwide. Since the early years of commercial air travel, passenger numbers have grown tremendously. However, for decades airlines’ financial results have been swinging between profits and losses. The airline industry’s aggregate net average profit between 1970 and 2010 was close to zero, which implies bankruptcies and layoffs in downturns. The profit cycle’s amplitude has been rising over time, which means that problems have become increasingly severe and also shows that the industry may not have learned from the past. More stable financial results could not only facilitate airline management decisions and improve investors’ confidence but also preserve employment. This book offers a thorough understanding of the airline profit cycle’s causes and drivers, and it presents measures to achieve a higher and more stable profitability level. This is the first in-depth examination of the airline profit cycle. The airline industry is modelled as a complex dynamic system, which is used for quantitative simulations of ‘what if’ scenarios. These experiments reveal that the general economic environment, such as GDP or fuel price developments, influence the airline industry’s profitability pattern as well as certain regulations or aircraft manufactures’ policies. Yet despite all circumstances, simulations show that airlines’ own management decisions are sufficient to generate higher and more stable profits in the industry. This book is useful for aviation industry decision makers, investors, policy makers, and researchers because it explains why the airline industry earns or loses money. This knowledge will advance forecasting and market intelligence. Furthermore, the book offers practitioners different suggestions to sustainably improve the airline industry’s profitability. The book is also recommended as a case study for system analysis as well as industry cyclicality at graduate or postgraduate level for courses such as engineering, economics, or management.
Author: Milan Janic
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1351881396
Category : Transportation
Languages : en
Pages : 375
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Book Description
This book presents, for the first time, a comprehensive analysis and assessment of the sustainability of the contemporary civil air transport system, examining its three main components: airports, air traffic control, and airlines. It offers an in-depth examination and quantitative insight into the system's current and prospective structure and operations, as well as the related effects and impacts. The sustainability of the air transport system is considered along a global trajectory of growing effects and diminishing and/or stagnating impacts on society and environment under conditions of continuous growth. In doing so, the author examines the situations of users of the system (passengers and freight shippers), air transport operators (airports, air traffic control and airlines), aerospace manufacturers, local and national communities, policymakers and the general public. The book possesses the unique and distinctive feature of providing an analysis and assessment of the air transport system's sustainability through elaboration of its technical/technological, operational, economic, social, environmental and institutional performances and their causality. It is written for advanced graduate and post-graduate students, researchers, planners, stakeholders, and policymakers dealing with the various sustainability issues of the contemporary air transport system.
Author: Milan Janić
Publisher: Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.
ISBN: 9780754649670
Category : Transportation
Languages : en
Pages : 382
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Book Description
This book presents, for the first time, a comprehensive analysis and assessment of sustainability of the contemporary civil air transport system, examining its three main components: airports, air traffic control, and airlines. It offers an in-depth exami
