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Author: Giles Keating
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9780416357905
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238
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Book Description
Author: Giles Keating
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9780416357905
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238
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Book Description
Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262582421
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Author: Lawrence Robert Klein
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1849802165
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691140138
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 566
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Book Description
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Author: Michael K. Evans
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780631220657
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 556
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Book Description
Stressing the concrete applications of economic forecasting, Practical Business Forecasting is accessible to a wide-range of readers, requiring only a familiarity with basic statistics. The text focuses on the use of models in forecasting, explaining how to build practical forecasting models that produce optimal results. In a clear and detailed format, the text covers estimating and forecasting with single and multi- equation models, univariate time-series modeling, and determining forecasting accuracy. Additionally, case studies throughout the book illustrate how the models are actually estimated and adjusted to generate accurate forecasts. After reading this text, students and readers should have a clearer idea of the reasoning and choices involved in building models, and a deeper foundation in estimating econometric models used in practical business forecasting.
Author: Walter Friedman
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691159114
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
A gripping history of the pioneers who sought to use science to predict financial markets The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself.
Author: Michael Clements
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521634809
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Author: Elia Kacapyr
Publisher: M.E. Sharpe
ISBN: 9781563247651
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
Widening the focus from the usual business forecasts, explains the techniques for predicting macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, interest rates, and employment. Reviews the concepts of business cycles and long waves, then describes techniques using economic indicators, time series, econometric models, and consensus. Also considers the evaluation of forecasts. Readers with a solid background in mathematics and statistics should learn now to make forecasts; others should get an intuitive understanding that will improve their interpretation of forecasts by others. Paper edition (unseen), $29.95. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Author: Ken Holden
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521356923
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
This work is the only currently available text that provides comprehensive coverage of the methods and applications in the rapidly developing field of forecasting the future state of the economy.
Author: Hans G. Graf
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN: 0313017417
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 264
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Book Description
Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose. This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
