The Joint Estimation of Term Structures and Credit Spreads PDF Download
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Author: Patrick Houweling
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
We present a new framework for the joint estimation of the default-free term structure of interest rates and corporate credit spread curves. It specifies the discount curve of a specific credit rating class as the sum of the government discount function and a discount spread function. Both functions are modelled using splines so that we can jointly estimate the default-free government term structure and corporate credit spread curves with least squares. We construct confidence intervals around the estimated term structures and credit spreads and use them to determine the number of knots and the order of the involved spline functions. By using a high-quality data set of German mark denominated bonds, we show that the new framework yields more realistic spreads than conventionally obtained spread curves that result from subtracting independently estimated government and corporate term structures. The estimated spread curves are now smooth functions of time to maturity, as opposed to the twisting curves one gets from the traditional method, and are less sensitive to model specifications. Moreover, the implied corporate term structures have tighter confidence bands. The credit spreads and term structures that result from the framework are therefore more suited to be used as input to, e.g., models that asses the credit risk in derivatives, pricing models for credit derivatives and corporate bonds, risk management procedures, and time series analyses of credit spreads.
Author: Patrick Houweling
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
We present a new framework for the joint estimation of the default-free term structure of interest rates and corporate credit spread curves. It specifies the discount curve of a specific credit rating class as the sum of the government discount function and a discount spread function. Both functions are modelled using splines so that we can jointly estimate the default-free government term structure and corporate credit spread curves with least squares. We construct confidence intervals around the estimated term structures and credit spreads and use them to determine the number of knots and the order of the involved spline functions. By using a high-quality data set of German mark denominated bonds, we show that the new framework yields more realistic spreads than conventionally obtained spread curves that result from subtracting independently estimated government and corporate term structures. The estimated spread curves are now smooth functions of time to maturity, as opposed to the twisting curves one gets from the traditional method, and are less sensitive to model specifications. Moreover, the implied corporate term structures have tighter confidence bands. The credit spreads and term structures that result from the framework are therefore more suited to be used as input to, e.g., models that asses the credit risk in derivatives, pricing models for credit derivatives and corporate bonds, risk management procedures, and time series analyses of credit spreads.
Author: Patrick Houweling
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Jaap Hoek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Author: Rainer Jankowitsch
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
The traditional method of credit spread estimation is based on subtracting independently estimated risk-free and risky term structures of interest rates which in many cases yields unrealistically shaped and often irregular credit spread curves. A parsimonious joint estimation of the risk-free term structure and the credit spread as proposed by Houweling et al. (2001) might serve as a valuable alternative to overcome this drawback but it is hard to decide whether a seemingly irregular shape of the credit spread curve is economically caused by the data or is only an artefact of the functional form of the estimation model. Results of an empirical examination of EMU government bond data show that traditional estimation models with different functional forms yield differing irregularities in the credit spread curves whereas joint estimation procedures result in well-behaving and coinciding curves. Moreover, the explanatory power of the more parsimonious joint estimation procedures is virtually equal to the traditional methods. This is strong evidence for the superiority of a joint estimation procedure of credit spread curves. Finally, we conclude that a simple linear joint cubic splines specification performs surprisingly well compared to a numerically more affording non-linear model.
Author: Azamat Abdymomunov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
In this paper, we investigate whether credit spread curve information helps forecast the government bond yield curve and whether the joint dynamics of the government bond yields and credit spreads have structural changes. For this purpose, we use a joint dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model of the term structures of U.S. Treasury interest rates and credit spreads. We find that this joint model produces substantially more accurate out-of-sample Treasury yields forecasts compared with a standard DNS yield curve only model. We also find that the predictive gain from incorporating the credit spread curve information substantially increases if the joint model accounts for structural changes in the dynamics of yield and credit spread curves. In addition, our model incorporates a zero lower bound restriction ensuring that our predictions are economically plausible.
Author: Zhiping Zhou
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We estimate a no-arbitrage term structure model of U.S. Treasury yields and corporate bond spreads with both economic factors and latent factors as drivers of term structure dynamics. We consider two sets of economic factors: macro factors consisting of inflation and real activity, and financial market factors consisting of funding liquidity and market volatility. We show that financial market factors have limited effects on the Treasury yield curve but substantial impacts on the credit spread term structure. In particular, negative liquidity shocks widen credit spreads, and this effect is more pronounced for short-term corporate bonds. We also find that out-of-sample forecasts for credit spreads improve when financial market factors are incorporated and when no-arbitrage restrictions are imposed. We also propose a minimum-chi-square method for estimating the term structure models of interest rate and credit spreads, which is more efficient and accurate than the widespread maximum-likelihood estimation.
Author: Jeffery D. Amato
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporate bonds
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and B rated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables -- indicators of real activity, inflation and financial conditions -- as well as latent factors, as drivers of term structure dynamics. Our results point to three key roles played by macro factors in the term structure of spreads: they have a significant impact on the level, and particularly the slope, of the curves; they are largely responsible for variation in the prices of systematic risk; and speculative grade spreads exhibit greater sensitivity to macro shocks than high grade spreads. In addition to estimating risk-neutral default intensities, we provide estimates of physical default intensities using data on Moody's KMV EDFs as a forward--looking proxy for default risk. We find that the real and financial activity indicators, along with filtered estimates of the latent factors from our term structure model, explain a large portion of the variation in EDFs across time. Furthermore, measures of the price of default event risk implied by estimates of physical and risk-neutral intensities indicate that compensation for default event risk is countercyclical, varies widely across the cycle, and is higher on average and more variable for higher-rated bonds.
Author: Antje Berndt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Author: Martin Knoch
Publisher: diplom.de
ISBN: 3832418822
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 114
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Book Description
Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: We discuss the main approaches to quantify the risk of losses arising from a defaulting counterparty to a financial transaction that have been developed over the last 25 years. Every existing method faces major problems in assessing the numerous and partly non-observable factors influencing credit risk. One shortcoming common to all methods is the classical normal assumption for interest rate changes and asset returns. Therefore we suggest the introduction of stable Paretian models to yield more realistic credit spreads. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Introduction 2.Basic Properties of Credit Risk Models 2.1Financial Position 2.2Default Probability 2.3The Price Of Credit Risk 3.Structural Models 3.1Structural Models With Constant Interest Rates 3.2Structural Models With Stochastic Interest Rates 4.Reduced Form Models 4.1Terminology of Reduced Form Models 4.1.1Credit Risk and Credit Events 4.1.2Rating Categories and Transition Matrices 4.2Reduced Form Modesl With Default Rates 4.3Reduced Form Models With Rating Transitions 4.3.1Modelling Rating Histories With Markov Chains 4.3.2The Introduction of Pseudo-Probabilities 4.3.3Parameter Estimation 5.Models With Implied Credit Spread 6.Hybrid Models 6.1Rating Transitions 6.2Forward Prices 6.3The Distribution of Values 6.3.1Distributions in Credit Risk and Market Risk Measurement 6.4Expected Loss 6.5Unexpected Loss 6.6Example 7.Rating Categories 7.1Alternative Credit Analysis And Rating Methodology 7.2Example. Standard&Poor s Corporate Rating 7.2.1Rating Categories 7.2.2The Rating Process 7.2.3Credit Analysis Factors 7.3Split Ratings 8.Transition Matrices 8.1Default Probabilities 8.1.1Estimating Default Probabilities 8.1.2Errors Arising From Default Estimation 8.1.3Refining Rating Categories 8.2Properties of Transition Matrices in a Markov Model 8.2.1The Markov Property 8.2.2Monotonicity of Rating Transitions 8.2.3Adjusting Transition Matrices for the Markov Property and Monotonicity 8.3Conditional Rating Migrations 9.Recovery Rates 10.The Term Structure of Credit Spreads 10.1Risk Factors With An Impact On Credit Spreads 10.2Volatility of Credit Spreads 10.2.1The Distribution of Yield Spreads 11.Challenges in Assessing Portfolio Credit Risk 11.1Joint Rating Migrations 11.2Expected and Unexpected Losses of a Portfolio 11.3Estimating Correlations 11.4Monte Carlo Simulation 12Assessing Credit Risk With Stable [...]
Author: Rainer Jankowitsch
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Many pricing and risk management models need credit spread curves as an input. In the corporate bond market the estimation of credit spread curves is not trivial. Most issuers have only too few bonds outstanding and frequently these bonds are denominated in different currencies. To ensure a sufficient number of bonds for the estimation procedure in many cases bonds in different currencies have to be used which implies that the estimation procedure has to take into account potential currency effects. Under the hypothesis of zero correlation between the default variables and the exchange rates deflated by the relevant money market accounts we show using a rather general pricing framework that credit spreads are expected to be equal across different currencies. This paper analyses these effects and presents a new model which allows to estimate a credit spread curve for a single issuer with bonds in different currencies. This new model is based on the multi-curve estimation approach which allows a parsimonious joint estimation of a risk free term structure and the credit spread curve of the issuer. We reject the hypothesis of zero correlation between credit and exchange rate risk and present empirical evidence that there are significant differences of issuer specific credit spreads across different currencies in a representative sample of international corporate bonds. Moreover, this implies that dollar related credit spread curves cannot be used without special care for pricing defaultable claims denominated in other currencies.
