The Effects of State-level Economic Conditions on Presidential Elections PDF Download
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Author: John R. Phillippe
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 146
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Author: John R. Phillippe
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 146
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Book Description
Author: Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 9780472081332
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204
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Book Description
A cross-national study of the effect of economic conditions on voting behavior in the United States and the Western democracies
Author: Joel Ryan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 108
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Book Description
Author: John E. Chubb
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Elections
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Author: Jan E. Leighley
Publisher: Oxford University Press (UK)
ISBN: 0199604517
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 796
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Book Description
The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics are the essential guide to the study of American political life in the 21st Century. With engaging contributions from the major figures in the field The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior provides the key point of reference for anyone working in American Politics today
Author: Taeyong Park
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic dissertations
Languages : en
Pages : 151
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Book Description
This dissertation project investigates how economic conditions influence presidential support in the United States. In particular, I focus on uncovering the temporal and causal dynamics to better understand the topic.Of the three papers of this dissertation, the first paper develops a Bayesian machine learning method and uses it to examine the temporal dynamics between macro-level income growth and presidential approval. I develop an estimation algorithm to fit multivariate time series models via the Bayesian adaptive lasso, a machine learning-based estimator that penalizes "unimportant" lagged variables and mitigates the problem of overfitting. This new methodological tool allows analysts to employ large-scale time series and a multitude of lagged terms. Consequently, it aids in discovering lagged policy effects or inertia of dynamic relationships, which have so far been difficult to theorize or test. The application of the method to quarterly data for presidential approval ratings uncovers substantial lagged effects and positive long-run effects of income growth.The second paper conducts a causal mediation analysis to explore two causal mechanisms that shape the effect of local unemployment on presidential voting: retrospective voting and issue-ownership voting. In an individual-level mediation analysis of the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections, this paper presents evidence that both mechanisms were at work in these most recent elections. The incumbent party, Democrat or Republican, is punished when local unemployment is rising, through its influence on retrospective evaluations of the national economy. Once this mediation effect representing retrospective voting is accounted for, local unemployment bolsters support for Democratic presidential candidates and drives down support for Republican candidates, implying that the two parties' distinct reputations for the unemployment issue engender issue-ownership voting.Finally, the third paper formulates two partisan mechanisms that might moderate the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and presidential approval: retrospective and prospective partisan mechanisms. I test this new theoretical framework against quarterly data for multiple economic indicators and presidential approval from 1964 to 2015. The effect of unemployment squares with the prospective partisan mechanism: in response to deteriorating job conditions, citizens reward Democratic presidents and punish Republican presidents with an expectation that Democratic presidents will deal better with the unemployment issue. The effects of inflation, economic growth, and income growth are best explained by the retrospective partisan mechanism: only Republican presidents are punished for deteriorating conditions in terms of these three economic indicators, suggesting that these economic issues are salient for the Republican party and citizens hold Republicans more accountable for performance on these issues.
Author: United States. President
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Labor supply
Languages : en
Pages : 554
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Book Description
Includes reports by the U.S. Dept. of Labor (called 1963- : Manpower requirements, resources, utilization and training), and the U.S. Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare , 1975-
Author: Raymond M. Duch
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139470620
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 359
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Book Description
This book proposes a selection model for explaining cross-national variation in economic voting: Rational voters condition the economic vote on whether incumbents are responsible for economic outcomes, because this is the optimal way to identify and elect competent economic managers under conditions of uncertainty. This model explores how political and economic institutions alter the quality of the signal that the previous economy provides about the competence of candidates. The rational economic voter is also attentive to strategic cues regarding the responsibility of parties for economic outcomes and their electoral competitiveness. Theoretical propositions are derived, linking variation in economic and political institutions to variability in economic voting. The authors demonstrate that there is economic voting, and that it varies significantly across political contexts. The data consist of 165 election studies conducted in 19 different countries over a 20-year time period.
Author: Kai Arzheimer
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 147395925X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 1382
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Book Description
The study of voting behaviour remains a vibrant sub-discipline of political science. The Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an authoritative and wide ranging survey of this dynamic field, drawing together a team of the world′s leading scholars to provide a state-of-the-art review that sets the agenda for future study. Taking an interdisciplinary approach and focusing on a range of countries, the handbook is composed of eight parts. The first five cover the principal theoretical paradigms, establishing the state of the art in their conceptualisation and application, and followed by chapters on their specific challenges and innovative applications in contemporary voting studies. The remaining three parts explore elements of the voting process to understand their different effects on vote outcomes. The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an essential benchmark publication for advanced students, researchers and practitioners in the fields of politics, sociology, psychology and research methods.
Author: Walker Aylett Pollard
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 130
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Book Description
