The Effects of Lower-than-replacement Fertility and Aging Societies on GDP Per Capita in Developed Nations PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download The Effects of Lower-than-replacement Fertility and Aging Societies on GDP Per Capita in Developed Nations PDF full book. Access full book title The Effects of Lower-than-replacement Fertility and Aging Societies on GDP Per Capita in Developed Nations by . Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
With the exception of the United States, fertility rates across the developed world have been below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman since the 1970s. This phenomenon, coupled with increasing life spans, has caused the populations of developed countries to age considerably. With fewer children born, it is expected that the next ten to fifteen years will witness population declines and the beginning of labor shortages and declines in labor output in the developed world as the cohort of those aged 15-64 begins to shrink. Such consequences will cause Western governments great struggle in financing the pensions and health needs of a growing elderly population, and it is expected that real GDP and GDP per capita of developed nations will incur negative growth as a result. This thesis analyzes regressions on Japan, France, and Italy and attempts to support the hypothesis that declining fertility rates in those countries will have a negative effect on GDP per capita. The regression models also incorporate other social, demographic, and economic variables, based on available literature, to predict GDP per capita. Results indicated that identical regression models could not be used for all developed nations, but fertility rate was positively correlated with GDP per capita.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
With the exception of the United States, fertility rates across the developed world have been below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman since the 1970s. This phenomenon, coupled with increasing life spans, has caused the populations of developed countries to age considerably. With fewer children born, it is expected that the next ten to fifteen years will witness population declines and the beginning of labor shortages and declines in labor output in the developed world as the cohort of those aged 15-64 begins to shrink. Such consequences will cause Western governments great struggle in financing the pensions and health needs of a growing elderly population, and it is expected that real GDP and GDP per capita of developed nations will incur negative growth as a result. This thesis analyzes regressions on Japan, France, and Italy and attempts to support the hypothesis that declining fertility rates in those countries will have a negative effect on GDP per capita. The regression models also incorporate other social, demographic, and economic variables, based on available literature, to predict GDP per capita. Results indicated that identical regression models could not be used for all developed nations, but fertility rate was positively correlated with GDP per capita.
Author: Kingsley Davis
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521343244
Category : Fertility, Human
Languages : en
Pages : 380
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: David Bloom
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833033735
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 127
Get Book Here
Book Description
There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
Author: Nancy Birdsall
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191529532
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 457
Get Book Here
Book Description
The effect of demography on economic performance has been the subject of intense debate in economics for nearly two centuries. In recent years opinion has swung between the Malthusian views of Coale and Hoover, and the cornucopian views of Julian Simon. Unfortunately, until recently, data were too weak and analytical models too limited to provide clear insights into the relationship. As a result, economists as a group have not been clear or conclusive. This volume, which is based on a collection of papers that heavily rely on data from the 1980s and 1990s and on new analytical approaches, sheds important new light on demographic—economic relationships, and it provides clearer policy conclusions than any recent work on the subject. In particular, evidence from developing countries throughout the world shows a pattern in recent decades that was not evident earlier: countries with higher rates of population growth have tended to see less economic growth. An analysis of the role of demography in the "Asian economic miracle" strongly suggests that changes in age structures resulting from declining fertility create a one-time "demographic gift" or window of opportunity, when the working age population has relatively few dependants, of either young or old age, to support. Countries which recognize and seize on this opportunity can, as the Asian tigers did, realize healthy bursts in economic output. But such results are by no means assured: only for countries with otherwise sound economic policies will the window of opportunity yield such dramatic results. Finally, several of the studies demonstrate the likelihood of a causal relationship between high fertility and poverty. While the direction of causality is not always clear and very likely is reciprocal (poverty contributes to high fertility and high fertility reinforces poverty), the studies support the view that lower fertility at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families. Population Matters represents an important further step in our understanding of the contribution of population change to economic performance. As such, it will be a useful volume for policymakers both in developing countries and in international development agencies.
Author: Ronald Demos Lee
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 0857930583
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 617
Get Book Here
Book Description
'While there already exists a crowded body of publications addressing the effect of an aging population on the economy, this monograph is most outstanding in presenting a global, in-depth analysis of the implications thereby generated for 23 developed and developing countries. . . Scholars, researchers, and practitioners everywhere will benefit immensely from this comprehensive work.' – H.I. Liebling, Choice 'Ron Lee and Andrew Mason's Population Aging and the Generational Economy is a demographic and economic tour-de-force. Their collaborative, intercontinental. . . study of aging, consumption, labor supply, saving, and private and public transfers is the place to go to understand global aging and its myriad and significant economic challenges and opportunities.' – Laurence Kotlikoff, Boston University, US 'The culmination of. . . work by Lee, Mason, and their collaborators from around the world to extend Samuelson's framework to accommodate realistic demography, empirical measurement of age-specific earnings, consumption, tax payments, and benefit receipts, the studies. . . demonstrate the power of this integrated economic-demographic framework to advance our understanding of critical public policy challenges faced by countries at different stages of demographic transition and population aging.' – Robert Willis, University of Michigan, US 'Lee and Mason have done scholars and practitioners a magnificent service by undertaking this comprehensive, compelling, and supremely innovative examination of the economic consequences of changes in population age structure. The book is a bona fide crystal ball. It will be a MUST READ for the next decade!' – David Bloom, Harvard School of Public Health, US 'Population Aging and the Generational Economy provides an encompassing account of what we know about population aging and the impact that this process will have on our economies. It does not confine itself to the advanced industrial countries, where aging has already been largely studied, but adopts a truly global perspective. I am sure it will become a key reference for researchers, students and those involved in policy-making in areas that are affected by population aging.' – Giuliano Bonoli, Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration (IDHEAP), Switzerland Over coming decades, changes in population age structure will have profound implications for the macroeconomy, influencing economic growth, generational equity, human capital, saving and investment, and the sustainability of public and private transfer systems. How the future unfolds will depend on key actors in the generational economy: governments, families, financial institutions, and others. This path-breaking book provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic effects of changes in population age structure across the globe. The result of a substantial seven-year research project involving over 50 economists and demographers from Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the United States, the book draws on a new and comprehensive conceptual framework – National Transfer Accounts – to quantify the economic lifecycle and economic flows across generations. It presents comprehensive estimates of both public and private economic flows between generations, and emphasizes the global nature of changes in population age structure that are affecting rich and poor countries alike. This unique and informative book will prove an invaluable reference tool for a wide-ranging audience encompassing students, researchers, and academics in fields such as demography, aging, public finance, economic development, macroeconomics, gerontology, and national income accounting; for policy-makers and advisers focusing on areas of the public sector such as education, health, pensions, other social security programs, tax policy, and public debt; and for policy analysts at international agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the UN.
Author: Kevin G. Kinsella
Publisher: Bureau of Census
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 194
Get Book Here
Book Description
Provides statistical information on the worldwide population of people 65 years old or older.
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226386880
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403
Get Book Here
Book Description
Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.
Author: Ronald R. Rindfuss
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783319214832
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
This volume examines two distinct low fertility scenarios that have emerged in economically advanced countries since the turn of the 20th century: one in which fertility is at or near replacement-level and the other where fertility is well below replacement. It explores the way various institutions, histories and cultures influence fertility in a diverse range of countries in Asia, Europe, North America and Australia. The book features invited papers from the Conference on Low Fertility, Population Aging and Population Policy, held December 2013 and co-sponsored by the East-West Center and the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA). It first presents an overview of the demographic and policy implications of the two low fertility scenarios. Next, the book explores five countries currently experiencing low fertility rates: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. It then examines three countries that have close to replacement-level fertility: Australia, the Netherlands and the United States. Each country is featured in a separate chapter written by a demographer with expert knowledge in the area. Very low fertility is linked to a number of conditions countries face, including a declining population size. At the same time, low fertility, and its effect on the age structure, threatens social welfare policies. This book goes beyond the technical to examine the core institutional, policy and cultural factors behind this increasingly important issue. It helps readers to make cross-country comparisons and gain insight into how diverse institutions, policies and culture shape fertility levels and patterns.
Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789211091540
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 216
Get Book Here
Book Description
Greater longevity is an indicator of human progress in general. Increased life expectancy and lower fertility rates are changing the population structure worldwide in a major way: the proportion of older persons is rapidly increasing, a process known as population ageing. The process is inevitable and is already advanced in developed countries and progressing quite rapidly in developing ones. The 2007 Survey analyses the implications of population ageing for social and economic development around the world, while recognising that it offers both challenges and opportunities. Among the most pressing issues is that arising from the prospect of a smaller labour force having to support an increasingly larger older population. Paralleling increased longevity are the changes in intergenerational relationships that may affect the provision of care and income security for older persons, particularly in developing countries where family transfers play a major role. At the same time, it is also necessary for societies to fully recognise and better harness the productive and social contributions that older persons can make but are in many instances prevented from making. The Survey argues that the challenges are not insurmountable, but that societies everywhere need to put in place the policies required to confront those challenges effectively and to ensure an adequate standard of living for each of their members, while respecting and promoting the contribution and participation of all.
Author: G. Steinmann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642864783
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 428
Get Book Here
Book Description
The recent experience of industrialized countries with low fer tility and persistent immigration has stimulated interest in the eco nomic effects of population change in industrial countries and has led to new research in population economics. In Germany, however, where these demographic trends were perhaps most pronounced, research on po pulation economics has lagged. During recent years more German econo mists have also turned to this topic. This upsurge in research activity motivated the organisation of an international conference entitled "Economic Consequences of Population Change in Industrialized Coun tries", which was held from June 1 to June 3, 1983 at the University of Paderborn, W. Germany. The conference was designed to discuss and assess the new theoretical and empirical research work on the effects of population change on the economy, to intensify the international cooperation and to stimulate the research in population economics in W. Germany. This volume contains 23 revised versions of the 27 papers pre sented at the conference. Although the topics of the papers are di verse, they can be grouped into six general themes: The first section, including papers by Cigno, Steinmann, and Simon, deals with models of the secular interrelationships between population change, technical progress and economic growth. The models are built upon the framework of neoclassical growth theory and are extended by the assumption that the rate of technical progress is positively linked with population growth or population density.
