The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks-A Comparative Study PDF Download
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Author: Hilde C. Bjørnland
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper analyses the dynamic effects of aggregate demand, supply and oil price shocks on GDP and unemployment in Germany, Norway, the UK and the USA, and establishes the role of the different shocks in explaining output fluctuations over time. Symmetries of economic fluctuations across countries are also examined. The different shocks are identified by imposing dynamic restrictions on a structural vector autoregression model. For all countries except Norway, oil price shocks have significant negative effects on output. However, whereas the oil price shock in 1973-74 triggered off a global recession, the recession in the early 1980s was largely caused by other disturbances.
Author: Hilde C. Bjørnland
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper analyses the dynamic effects of aggregate demand, supply and oil price shocks on GDP and unemployment in Germany, Norway, the UK and the USA, and establishes the role of the different shocks in explaining output fluctuations over time. Symmetries of economic fluctuations across countries are also examined. The different shocks are identified by imposing dynamic restrictions on a structural vector autoregression model. For all countries except Norway, oil price shocks have significant negative effects on output. However, whereas the oil price shock in 1973-74 triggered off a global recession, the recession in the early 1980s was largely caused by other disturbances.
Author: Hilde Christiane Bjørnland
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226278875
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 663
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Book Description
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Author: Michael M. Hutchison
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Petroleum products
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Author: Deren Unalmis
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475598432
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
Author: Jiarui Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The volatile oil market in the recent decade has aroused renewed interest on how economic activities are impacted by oil price shocks. This thesis serves as both a review of previous studies and an empirical exploration to the relationship. We assess the impact on aggregate and industrial level based on multivariate vector autoregressive models. Representative countries and industries are chosen to better capture the dynamic effects. Various patterns of the output responses to oil price shocks are found in our study. Both Norway and Japan benefit from oil price shocks for the sample period from 1986 to 2012, while a rise in oil price reduces output level in the U.S.. The positive response of Japanese economy might be explained by its energy intensity and industrial structure.
Author: Mr.Paul Cashin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475597150
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.
Author: Michael M. Hutchison
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
Author: Deren Unalmis
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451874308
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.
Author: Diego A. Cerdeiro
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475595913
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for the median country in our sample, and 0.17 percentage points in GDP-weighted terms. While increases in oil supply and shocks to oil-specific demand actually boosted growth in 2015 (by about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively), weak global demand more than offset these gains, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations for the 72 countries in our sample underscore the importance of diversification, rather than low levels of openness, in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.
