Author: C.-A. Staël von Holstein
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401022887
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 161
Book Description
1. BACKGROUND The last twenty-five years have seen a large amount of psychological research in the area of behavioral decision theory. It followed the major breakthrough of decision theory that came with von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior in 1944. The key concepts are probability as a measure of uncertainty and utility as a measure of value and risk. The theory prescribes, given some behavioral axioms, that alternatives should be ranked in accordance with their expected utilities. Psychologists became interested in studying how people's decision behavior agreed with what was prescribed by the theory. Three broad areas for research developed, i. e. , research relating to each of the two concepts of probability and utility, and research relating to the interaction of the two in decision stituations. The papers in this book have been selected to illustrate various aspects of how the concept of probability has been used in psychological ex perimentation. The early experiments were generated, as mentioned above, by an interest among psychologists to see how people evaluate uncertainty and quantify it in probabilistic terms. Many of these experiments set out to evaluate subjects' estimates of relative frequencies; these were situations where one had access to 'objective' answers. In the 1960's psychologists changed the focus of their studies to how people revise probabilistic judgments when they receive new information. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the cognitive processes by which people express their judgment in probabilistic terms.
The Concept of Probability in Psychological Experiments
Author: C.-A. Staël von Holstein
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401022887
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 161
Book Description
1. BACKGROUND The last twenty-five years have seen a large amount of psychological research in the area of behavioral decision theory. It followed the major breakthrough of decision theory that came with von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior in 1944. The key concepts are probability as a measure of uncertainty and utility as a measure of value and risk. The theory prescribes, given some behavioral axioms, that alternatives should be ranked in accordance with their expected utilities. Psychologists became interested in studying how people's decision behavior agreed with what was prescribed by the theory. Three broad areas for research developed, i. e. , research relating to each of the two concepts of probability and utility, and research relating to the interaction of the two in decision stituations. The papers in this book have been selected to illustrate various aspects of how the concept of probability has been used in psychological ex perimentation. The early experiments were generated, as mentioned above, by an interest among psychologists to see how people evaluate uncertainty and quantify it in probabilistic terms. Many of these experiments set out to evaluate subjects' estimates of relative frequencies; these were situations where one had access to 'objective' answers. In the 1960's psychologists changed the focus of their studies to how people revise probabilistic judgments when they receive new information. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the cognitive processes by which people express their judgment in probabilistic terms.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401022887
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 161
Book Description
1. BACKGROUND The last twenty-five years have seen a large amount of psychological research in the area of behavioral decision theory. It followed the major breakthrough of decision theory that came with von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior in 1944. The key concepts are probability as a measure of uncertainty and utility as a measure of value and risk. The theory prescribes, given some behavioral axioms, that alternatives should be ranked in accordance with their expected utilities. Psychologists became interested in studying how people's decision behavior agreed with what was prescribed by the theory. Three broad areas for research developed, i. e. , research relating to each of the two concepts of probability and utility, and research relating to the interaction of the two in decision stituations. The papers in this book have been selected to illustrate various aspects of how the concept of probability has been used in psychological ex perimentation. The early experiments were generated, as mentioned above, by an interest among psychologists to see how people evaluate uncertainty and quantify it in probabilistic terms. Many of these experiments set out to evaluate subjects' estimates of relative frequencies; these were situations where one had access to 'objective' answers. In the 1960's psychologists changed the focus of their studies to how people revise probabilistic judgments when they receive new information. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the cognitive processes by which people express their judgment in probabilistic terms.
The Concept of Probability in Psychological Experiments
Author: C -A Stael Von Holstein
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789401022897
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 172
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789401022897
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 172
Book Description
Probability in Theory-building
Author: Jerzy Brzeziński
Publisher: Rodopi
ISBN: 9789051836783
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 264
Book Description
Publisher: Rodopi
ISBN: 9789051836783
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 264
Book Description
Probability and Statistics in Psychological Research and Theory
Author: Donald Wyman Stilson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 544
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 544
Book Description
Cognition and Chance
Author: Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 113561461X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 798
Book Description
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 113561461X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 798
Book Description
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
The Psychology Experiment
Author: Barry F. Anderson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 202
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 202
Book Description
Probability and Statistics
Author: Donald W. Stilson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 507
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 507
Book Description
Subjective Probability
Author: George Wright
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 608
Book Description
This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 608
Book Description
This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.
The Probabilistic Mind
Author: Nick Chater
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0199216096
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 535
Book Description
The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited Rational Models of Cognition (OUP, 1998). It brings together developmetns in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods.
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0199216096
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 535
Book Description
The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited Rational Models of Cognition (OUP, 1998). It brings together developmetns in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods.
Bayesian Rationality
Author: Mike Oaksford
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198524498
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 342
Book Description
For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198524498
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 342
Book Description
For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.