Tests for Non-linear Dynamics in Systems of Non-stationary Economic Time Series PDF Download
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Author: Barry E. Jones
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Interest rates
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
Author: Barry E. Jones
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Interest rates
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
Author: S. Burke
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230005780
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
Co-integration, equilibrium and equilibrium correction are key concepts in modern applications of econometrics to real world problems. This book provides direction and guidance to the now vast literature facing students and graduate economists. Econometric theory is linked to practical issues such as how to identify equilibrium relationships, how to deal with structural breaks associated with regime changes and what to do when variables are of different orders of integration.
Author: Ruey S. Tsay
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119264065
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 516
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Book Description
A comprehensive resource that draws a balance between theory and applications of nonlinear time series analysis Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers an important guide to both parametric and nonparametric methods, nonlinear state-space models, and Bayesian as well as classical approaches to nonlinear time series analysis. The authors—noted experts in the field—explore the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and review the improvements upon linear time series models. The need for this book is based on the recent developments in nonlinear time series analysis, statistical learning, dynamic systems and advanced computational methods. Parametric and nonparametric methods and nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models provide a much wider range of tools for time series analysis. In addition, advances in computing and data collection have made available large data sets and high-frequency data. These new data make it not only feasible, but also necessary to take into consideration the nonlinearity embedded in most real-world time series. This vital guide: • Offers research developed by leading scholars of time series analysis • Presents R commands making it possible to reproduce all the analyses included in the text • Contains real-world examples throughout the book • Recommends exercises to test understanding of material presented • Includes an instructor solutions manual and companion website Written for students, researchers, and practitioners who are interested in exploring nonlinearity in time series, Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers a comprehensive text that explores the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and demonstrates the improvements upon linear time series models.
Author: Bärbel Finkenstädt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642468217
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 167
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Book Description
1. 1 Introduction In economics, one often observes time series that exhibit different patterns of qualitative behavior, both regular and irregular, symmetric and asymmetric. There exist two different perspectives to explain this kind of behavior within the framework of a dynamical model. The traditional belief is that the time evolution of the series can be explained by a linear dynamic model that is exogenously disturbed by a stochastic process. In that case, the observed irregular behavior is explained by the influence of external random shocks which do not necessarily have an economic reason. A more recent theory has evolved in economics that attributes the patterns of change in economic time series to an underlying nonlinear structure, which means that fluctua tions can as well be caused endogenously by the influence of market forces, preference relations, or technological progress. One of the main reasons why nonlinear dynamic models are so interesting to economists is that they are able to produce a great variety of possible dynamic outcomes - from regular predictable behavior to the most complex irregular behavior - rich enough to meet the economists' objectives of modeling. The traditional linear models can only capture a limited number of possi ble dynamic phenomena, which are basically convergence to an equilibrium point, steady oscillations, and unbounded divergence. In any case, for a lin ear system one can write down exactly the solutions to a set of differential or difference equations and classify them.
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262531894
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 398
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Book Description
This text on economic forecasting asks why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to forecasting, it looks at the implications for causal modelling, presents forecast errors and delineates sources of failure.
Author: John Hunter
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 113731303X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 508
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Book Description
This book examines conventional time series in the context of stationary data prior to a discussion of cointegration, with a focus on multivariate models. The authors provide a detailed and extensive study of impulse responses and forecasting in the stationary and non-stationary context, considering small sample correction, volatility and the impact of different orders of integration. Models with expectations are considered along with alternate methods such as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), the Kalman Filter and Structural Time Series, all in relation to cointegration. Using single equations methods to develop topics, and as examples of the notion of cointegration, Burke, Hunter, and Canepa provide direction and guidance to the now vast literature facing students and graduate economists.
Author: Maurice Bertram Priestley
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 250
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Book Description
Author: William A. Barnett
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521471411
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 426
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Book Description
This 1997 book presents developments in nonlinear economic dynamics along with related research from other fields, including mathematics, statistics, biology, and physics.
Author: Gilles Dufrénot
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475736150
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 319
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Book Description
This book is an introductory exposition of different topics that emerged in the literature as unifying themes between two fields of econometrics of time series, namely nonlinearity and nonstationarity. Papers on these topics have exploded over the last two decades, but they are rarely ex amined together. There is, undoubtedly, a variety of arguments that justify such a separation. But there are also good reasons that motivate their combination. People who are reluctant to a combined analysis might argue that nonlinearity and nonstationarity enhance non-trivial problems, so their combination does not stimulate interest in regard to plausibly increased difficulties. This argument can, however, be balanced by other ones of an economic nature. A predominant idea, today, is that a nonstationary series exhibits persistent deviations from its long-run components (either deterministic or stochastic trends). These persistent deviations are modelized in various ways: unit root models, fractionally integrated processes, models with shifts in the time trend, etc. However, there are many other behaviors inherent to nonstationary processes, that are not reflected in linear models. For instance, economic variables with mixture distributions, or processes that are state-dependent, undergo episodes of changing dynamics. In models with multiple long-run equi libria, the moving from an equilibrium to another sometimes implies hys teresis. Also, it is known that certain shocks can change the economic fundamentals, thereby reducing the possibility that an initial position is re-established after a shock (irreversibility).
Author: Marisa Faggini
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319051857
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 250
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Book Description
In this book, leading experts discuss innovative components of complexity theory and chaos theory in economics. The underlying perspective is that investigations of economic phenomena should view these phenomena not as deterministic, predictable and mechanistic but rather as process dependent, organic and always evolving. The aim is to highlight the exciting potential of this approach in economics and its ability to overcome the limitations of past research and offer important new insights. The book offers a stimulating mix of theory, examples and policy. By casting light on a variety of topics in the field, it will provide an ideal platform for researchers wishing to deepen their understanding and identify areas for further investigation.
