Author: Garland Durham
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
Understanding both the dynamics of volatility as well as the shape of the distribution of returns conditional on the volatility state are important for many financial applications. A simple single-factor SV model appears to be sufficient to capture most of the dynamics; it is the shape of the conditional distribution that is the problem. This paper examines the idea of modeling this distribution as a discrete mixture of normals. The flexibility of this class of distributions provides a transparent look into the tails of the returns distribution. Model diagnostics suggest that the model, SV-mix, does a good job of capturing the salient features of the data. In a direct comparison against several affine-jump models, SV-mix is strongly preferred by Akaike and Schwarz information criteria.
Author: Jin-Chuan Duan
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642172547
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 791
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Book Description
Any financial asset that is openly traded has a market price. Except for extreme market conditions, market price may be more or less than a “fair” value. Fair value is likely to be some complicated function of the current intrinsic value of tangible or intangible assets underlying the claim and our assessment of the characteristics of the underlying assets with respect to the expected rate of growth, future dividends, volatility, and other relevant market factors. Some of these factors that affect the price can be measured at the time of a transaction with reasonably high accuracy. Most factors, however, relate to expectations about the future and to subjective issues, such as current management, corporate policies and market environment, that could affect the future financial performance of the underlying assets. Models are thus needed to describe the stochastic factors and environment, and their implementations inevitably require computational finance tools.
Author: Ivan Jeliazkov
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1789732417
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
In honor of Dale J. Poirier, experienced editors Ivan Jeliazkov and Justin Tobias bring together a cast of expert contributors to explore the most up-to-date research on econometrics, including subjects such as panel data models, posterior simulation, and Bayesian models.
Author: Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429508867
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 388
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Book Description
Mixture models have been around for over 150 years, and they are found in many branches of statistical modelling, as a versatile and multifaceted tool. They can be applied to a wide range of data: univariate or multivariate, continuous or categorical, cross-sectional, time series, networks, and much more. Mixture analysis is a very active research topic in statistics and machine learning, with new developments in methodology and applications taking place all the time. The Handbook of Mixture Analysis is a very timely publication, presenting a broad overview of the methods and applications of this important field of research. It covers a wide array of topics, including the EM algorithm, Bayesian mixture models, model-based clustering, high-dimensional data, hidden Markov models, and applications in finance, genomics, and astronomy. Features: Provides a comprehensive overview of the methods and applications of mixture modelling and analysis Divided into three parts: Foundations and Methods; Mixture Modelling and Extensions; and Selected Applications Contains many worked examples using real data, together with computational implementation, to illustrate the methods described Includes contributions from the leading researchers in the field The Handbook of Mixture Analysis is targeted at graduate students and young researchers new to the field. It will also be an important reference for anyone working in this field, whether they are developing new methodology, or applying the models to real scientific problems.
Author: Walter Zucchini
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482253844
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 370
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Book Description
Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses. After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. The book demonstrates how HMMs can be applied to a wide range of types of time series: continuous-valued, circular, multivariate, binary, bounded and unbounded counts, and categorical observations. It also discusses how to employ the freely available computing environment R to carry out the computations. Features Presents an accessible overview of HMMs Explores a variety of applications in ecology, finance, epidemiology, climatology, and sociology Includes numerous theoretical and programming exercises Provides most of the analysed data sets online New to the second edition A total of five chapters on extensions, including HMMs for longitudinal data, hidden semi-Markov models and models with continuous-valued state process New case studies on animal movement, rainfall occurrence and capture-recapture data
Author: Yanan Fan
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128158638
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 302
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Book Description
Flexible Bayesian Regression Modeling is a step-by-step guide to the Bayesian revolution in regression modeling, for use in advanced econometric and statistical analysis where datasets are characterized by complexity, multiplicity, and large sample sizes, necessitating the need for considerable flexibility in modeling techniques. It reviews three forms of flexibility: methods which provide flexibility in their error distribution; methods which model non-central parts of the distribution (such as quantile regression); and finally models that allow the mean function to be flexible (such as spline models). Each chapter discusses the key aspects of fitting a regression model. R programs accompany the methods. This book is particularly relevant to non-specialist practitioners with intermediate mathematical training seeking to apply Bayesian approaches in economics, biology, finance, engineering and medicine. Introduces powerful new nonparametric Bayesian regression techniques to classically trained practitioners Focuses on approaches offering both superior power and methodological flexibility Supplemented with instructive and relevant R programs within the text Covers linear regression, nonlinear regression and quantile regression techniques Provides diverse disciplinary case studies for correlation and optimization problems drawn from Bayesian analysis ‘in the wild’
Author: Zhongjun Qu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Empirical findings related to the time series properties of stock returns volatility indicate autocorrelations that decay slowly at long lags. In light of this, several long-memory models have been proposed. However, the possibility of level shifts has been advanced as a possible explanation for the appearance of long-memory and there is growing evidence suggesting that it may be an important feature of stock returns volatility. Nevertheless, it remains a conjecture that a model incorporating random level shifts in variance can explain the data well and produce reasonable forecasts. We show that a very simple stochastic volatility model incorporating both a random level shift and a short-memory component indeed provides a better in-sample fit of the data and produces forecasts that are no worse, and sometimes better, than standard stationary short and long-memory models. We use a Bayesian method for inference and develop algorithms to obtain the posterior distributions of the parameters and the smoothed estimates of the two latent components. We apply the model to daily S&P 500 and NASDAQ returns over the period 1980.1-2005.12. Although the occurrence of a level shift is rare, about once every two years, the level shift component clearly contributes most to the total variation in the volatility process. The half-life of a typical shock from the short-memory component is very short, on average between 8 and 14 days. We also show that, unlike common stationary short or long-memory models, our model is able to replicate keys features of the data. For the NASDAQ series, it forecasts better than a standard stochastic volatility model, and for the S&P 500 index, it performs equally well.
Author: C. A. Abanto-Valle
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
Author: James Doran
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
This paper presents a parsimonious, implementable model for the estimation of the short- and long-term expected rates of return on the Samp;P 500 stock market Index. The model estimates a parametric form for the Market Price of Risk, the Sharpe Ratio, of the Samp;P 500 Index. In addition to short- and long-term riskfree rates of interest, the model's empirical estimation makes use of two forward-looking measures: The economy's growth rate estimate; and the option market's (priced) implied volatility on the Samp;P 500 Index. The model accounts for past rates of return by modeling and estimating the impact of an assumed increasing relative risk aversion, which gives rise to an increased willingness to invest in risky assets as the realized rate of return for the recent past is quot;highquot.
Author: James E. Gentle
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642215513
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 1180
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Book Description
The Handbook of Computational Statistics - Concepts and Methods (second edition) is a revision of the first edition published in 2004, and contains additional comments and updated information on the existing chapters, as well as three new chapters addressing recent work in the field of computational statistics. This new edition is divided into 4 parts in the same way as the first edition. It begins with "How Computational Statistics became the backbone of modern data science" (Ch.1): an overview of the field of Computational Statistics, how it emerged as a separate discipline, and how its own development mirrored that of hardware and software, including a discussion of current active research. The second part (Chs. 2 - 15) presents several topics in the supporting field of statistical computing. Emphasis is placed on the need for fast and accurate numerical algorithms, and some of the basic methodologies for transformation, database handling, high-dimensional data and graphics treatment are discussed. The third part (Chs. 16 - 33) focuses on statistical methodology. Special attention is given to smoothing, iterative procedures, simulation and visualization of multivariate data. Lastly, a set of selected applications (Chs. 34 - 38) like Bioinformatics, Medical Imaging, Finance, Econometrics and Network Intrusion Detection highlight the usefulness of computational statistics in real-world applications.
