Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market During the Great Recession PDF Download
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Author: Luca Sala
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We use an estimated monetary business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and nominal price and wage rigidities to study four countries (the U.S., the U.K., Sweden, and Germany) during the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We estimate the model over the period prior to the financial crisis and use the model to interpret movements in GDP, unemployment, vacancies, and wages in the period from 2007 until 2011. We show that contractionary financial factors and reduced efficiency in labor market matching were largely responsible for the experience in the U.S. Financial factors were also important in the U.K., but less so in Sweden and Germany. Reduced matching efficiency was considerably less important in the U.K. and Sweden than in the U.S., but matching efficiency improved in Germany, helping to keep unemployment low. A counterfactual experiment suggests that unemployment in Germany would have been substantially higher if the German labor market had been more similar to that in the U.S.
Author: Luca Sala
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We use an estimated monetary business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and nominal price and wage rigidities to study four countries (the U.S., the U.K., Sweden, and Germany) during the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We estimate the model over the period prior to the financial crisis and use the model to interpret movements in GDP, unemployment, vacancies, and wages in the period from 2007 until 2011. We show that contractionary financial factors and reduced efficiency in labor market matching were largely responsible for the experience in the U.S. Financial factors were also important in the U.K., but less so in Sweden and Germany. Reduced matching efficiency was considerably less important in the U.K. and Sweden than in the U.S., but matching efficiency improved in Germany, helping to keep unemployment low. A counterfactual experiment suggests that unemployment in Germany would have been substantially higher if the German labor market had been more similar to that in the U.S.
Author: Mr.Masato Nakane
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455212512
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
The Great Recession pushed Japan’s unemployment rate to historic highs, but the increase has been small by international standards and small relative to the large output shock. This paper explores Japan’s cyclical labor market response to the global financial crisis. Our findings suggest that: (i) employment responsiveness has been historically low but rising over time with the increasing importance of the non-regular workforce; (ii) the labor market response was consistent with historical patterns once we control for the size of the output shock; and (iii) the comparatively lower employment response vis-à-vis other countries can in part be explained by the quick implementation of an employment subsidy program, a more flexible wage system, and a corporate governance structure that places workers rights above shareholders.
Author: Christopher J. Erceg
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484302605
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during “normal times” (that is, in response to small or transitory shocks) but drops markedly in the wake of a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. Finally, we show that these considerations can have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially under circumstances in which adjustments to the short-term interest rate are constrained by the zero lower bound.
Author: Mai Dao
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498380433
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
We examine patterns of regional adjustments to shocks in the US during the past four decades. We find that the response of interstate migration to relative labor market conditions has decreased, while the role of the unemployment rate as absorber of regional shocks has increased. However, the response of net migration to regional shocks is stronger during aggregate downturns and increased particularly during the Great Recession. We offer a potential explanation for the cyclical pattern of migration response based on the variation in consumption risk sharing.
Author: Francis Vitek
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455202193
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the sources of output and unemployment dynamics in the world economy during the Great Recession. This analysis is based on a panel unobserved components model of the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. We find that excess supply pressure was primarily transmitted from the output market to the labor market by economy specific combinations of negative domestic or foreign output demand shocks, mitigated to varying degrees by countercyclical labor market policies or institutions.
Author: Fouad Sabry
Publisher: One Billion Knowledgeable
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 473
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Book Description
What is Recession A contraction of the business cycle that takes place when there is a broad reduction in economic activity is referred to as a recession in the field of economic sciences. When there is a significant decrease in expenditure across the board, recessions are likely to emerge. A variety of occurrences, including but not limited to a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an unfavorable supply shock, the collapse of an economic bubble, or a large-scale natural or manmade calamity, have the potential to set this off. How you will benefit (I) Insights, and validations about the following topics: Chapter 1: Recession Chapter 2: Reaganomics Chapter 3: Economy of the United States Chapter 4: Economic depression Chapter 5: Business cycle Chapter 6: Deficit spending Chapter 7: Stagflation Chapter 8: Austerity Chapter 9: Early 1990s recession Chapter 10: National Bureau of Economic Research Chapter 11: Household debt Chapter 12: Economic stagnation Chapter 13: Deleveraging Chapter 14: Great Recession Chapter 15: Depression of 1920-1921 Chapter 16: Unemployment in the United States Chapter 17: Great Recession in the United States Chapter 18: Political debates about the United States federal budget Chapter 19: Abenomics Chapter 20: Balance sheet recession Chapter 21: Causes of unemployment in the United States (II) Answering the public top questions about recession. (III) Real world examples for the usage of recession in many fields. Who this book is for Professionals, undergraduate and graduate students, enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those who want to go beyond basic knowledge or information for any kind of recession.
Author: John E. Silvia
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119350824
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 354
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Book Description
Reality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets. Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.
Author: Thomas Janoski
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0745684130
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 190
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Book Description
There is a specter haunting advanced industrial countries: structural unemployment. Recent years have seen growing concern over declining jobs, and though corporate profits have picked up after the Great Recession of 2008, jobs have not. It is possible that “jobless recoveries” could become a permanent feature of Western economies. This illuminating book focuses on the employment futures of advanced industrial countries, providing readers with the sociological imagination to appreciate the bigger picture of where workers fit in the new international division of labor. The authors piece together a puzzle that reveals deep structural forces underlying unemployment: skills mismatches caused by a shift from manufacturing to service jobs; increased offshoring in search of lower wages; the rise of advanced communication and automated technologies; and the growing financialization of the global economy that aggravates all of these factors. Weaving together varied literatures and data, the authors also consider what actions and policy initiatives societies might take to alleviate these threats. Addressing a problem that should be front and center for political economists and policymakers, this book will be illuminating reading for students of the sociology of work, labor studies, inequality, and economic sociology.
Author: Marcello M. Estevão
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The recent crisis has had differential effects across U.S. states and industries causing a wide geographic dispersion in skill mismatches and housing market performance. We document these facts and, using data from the 50 states plus D.C from 1991 to 2008, we present econometric evidence that supports that changes in state-level unemployment rates are linked to skill mismatches and housing market performance even after controlling for cyclical effects. This result suggests some causality going from mismatches and housing conditions to unemployment rates. The numerical estimates imply that the structural unemployment rate in 2010 was about 1¾ percentage points higher than before the onset of the housing market meltdown at end-2006. Reversing this increase may require targeted active labor market policies and measures to expedite the adjustment in housing markets, as our results suggest weak housing market conditions interact negatively with skill mismatches to produce higher unemployment rates in the United States.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498396674
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 113
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Book Description
This Selected Issues paper on the United States of America examines the recent US labor force penetration rate (LFPR) dynamics. LFPR dynamics can be driven by structural factors and cyclical ones related to job prospects. With participation rates for older workers lower than for prime age workers, demographic models suggest that aging of the baby boom generation explains about 50 percent of the near 3p.p. LFPR decline during 2007–2013. State-level panel regression analysis is used to tie down the cyclical effect, which is estimated to account for about 30–40 percent of the decline. Significant remaining slack in the labor market points to an important role for macroeconomic and labor supply policies. This suggests a still important role for stimulative macroeconomic policies to help reach full employment. Macroeconomic policy should remain accommodative for a while given sizeable labor market slack. This slack goes beyond that signaled by the unemployment rate and takes account of the LFPR being below trend and many employees working part time ‘involuntarily’.
