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Author: Yeuk Wan Poon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Rate of return
Languages : en
Pages : 116
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Book Description
Author: Yeuk Wan Poon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Rate of return
Languages : en
Pages : 116
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Book Description
Author: Nidal Rashid Sabri
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper explored the new features of emerging stock markets, in order to point out the most associated indicators of increasing stock return volatility, which may lead to instability of emerging markets. The study covers a sample of five geographical areas of emerging economies, including Mexico, Korea, South Africa, Turkey, and Malaysia. It used the backward multiple-regression technique to examine the relationship between monthly changes of stock price indices as dependent variable and the associated predicting local as well as international variables, which represent possible causes of increasing price volatility and initiating crises in emerging stock markets. The study covered monthly data for a period of forty-eight months from January 1997 to December 2000. The study revealed that stock trading volume and currency exchange rate respectively represent the highest positive correlation to the emerging stock price changes; thus represent the most predicting variables of increasing price volatility. International stock price index, deposit interest rate, and bond trading volume were moderate predicting variables for emerging stock price volatility. While changes in inflation rate showed the least positive correlation to stock price volatility, thus represents the least predicting variable.
Author: N. Cakici
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137359072
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 347
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Book Description
Risk and Return in Asian Emerging Markets offers readers a firm insight into the risk and return characteristics of leading Asian emerging market participants by comparing and contrasting behavioral model variables with predictive forecasting methods.
Author: Ŭng-han Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital movements
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Author: Stijn Claessens
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Rate of return
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Author: Riza Demirer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
This paper examines the predictive power of the U.S. term structure over return volatility in emerging stock markets. Decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components, the expectations factor and the maturity premium, we show that the U.S. term structure indeed contains predictive information over emerging stock market volatility, even after controlling for country specific factors including turnover and market size. While we observe heterogeneous patterns across emerging markets in terms of their predictability with respect to the U.S. term structure, we find that the market's expectation of future short term rates, implied by the expectations factor, serves as a stronger predictor of stock market volatility compared to the maturity premium component of the yield spread. We also find that the U.S. term structure has gained further predictive value following the global financial crisis, particularly for the BRICS nations of China, Russia, and S. Africa. Overall, our findings suggest that policymakers and investors can utilize interest rate signals from the U.S. Treasury yields to make projections over stock market volatility in their local markets, however, distinguishing between the two components of the yield curve could provide additional forecasting power depending on the country of focus.
Author: Sudarshan Gooptu
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Author: Anthony J. Richards
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
This paper examines the evidence for the common assertion that the volatility of emerging stock markets has increased as a result of the liberalization of markets. A range of measures suggests that there has been no generalized increase in volatility in recent years; indeed, it appears that volatility may have tended to fall rather than rise on average. The paper also tests for the predictability of long-horizon returns in emerging markets. While there is evidence for positive autocorrelation in returns at horizons of one or two quarters, the autocorrelations appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more. However, the magnitude of the apparent return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries. In general, the liberalization and broadening of emerging markets should lead to a reduction in return volatility as risk is spread among a larger number of investors.
Author: Kalok Chan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Rate of return
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
Author: Mohammed El Hedi Arouri
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0124115632
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 927
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Book Description
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy investigates analytical techniques suited to emerging market economies, which are typically prone to policy shocks. Despite the large body of emerging market finance literature, their underlying dynamics and interactions with other economies remain challenging and mysterious because standard financial models measure them imprecisely. Describing the linkages between emerging and developed markets, this collection systematically explores several crucial issues in asset valuation and risk management. Contributors present new theoretical constructions and empirical methods for handling cross-country volatility and sudden regime shifts. Usually attractive for investors because of the superior growth they can deliver, emerging markets can have a low correlation with developed markets. This collection advances your knowledge about their inherent characteristics. Foreword by Ali M. Kutan Concentrates on post-crisis roles of emerging markets in the global economy Reports on key theoretical and technical developments in emerging financial markets Forecasts future developments in linkages among developed and emerging economies
