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Author: Eugene Nelson White
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 592
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Book Description
A collection of articles published between the 1920s and the 1990s on speculative manias and stock market crashes, highlighting their similarities. Looks at the mania for tulips in Holland in the 17th century, schemes to refinance government debt in 18th-century France and Britain, the volatile American stock and real estate markets of the 19th century, and parallels between the stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987. Raises basic questions about the stability of capital markets and the potential for regulation. No index. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Author: Eugene Nelson White
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 592
Get Book Here
Book Description
A collection of articles published between the 1920s and the 1990s on speculative manias and stock market crashes, highlighting their similarities. Looks at the mania for tulips in Holland in the 17th century, schemes to refinance government debt in 18th-century France and Britain, the volatile American stock and real estate markets of the 19th century, and parallels between the stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987. Raises basic questions about the stability of capital markets and the potential for regulation. No index. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Author: C. Kindleberger
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230628044
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 318
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Book Description
Manias, Panics and Crashes , is a scholarly and entertaining account of the way that mismanagement of money and credit has led to financial explosions over the centuries. Covering such topics as the history and anatomy of crises, speculative manias, and the lender of last resort, this book has been hailed as 'a true classic...both timely and timeless.' In this new, updated fifth edition, Kindleberger and Aliber expand upon the ideas presented in the previous edition, and include two new chapters on the real estate price bubble that occurred in Norway, Sweden and Finland at the end of the 1980s, and the three asset price bubbles that occurred between 1985 and 2000 in Japan and other Asian countries. Selected as one of the best investment books of all time by the Financial Times, Manias, Panics and Crashes puts the turbulence of the financial world in perspective.
Author: Charles P. Kindleberger
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780333670408
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 263
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Book Description
Economists mostly believe that financial markets are ruled by rationality after intelligent investors digest all the relevant information. Economic historians concede that this is generally the case but that, on occasion, these markets get caught up in herd behaviour, possibly irrational enough to be called manias, overdo bidding asset prices up, leading to consequent and subsequent collapse.
Author: Charles P. Kindleberger
Publisher: New York : Basic Books
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 296
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Book Description
A leading economist-historian chronicles the world's financial crisis, from the early-eighteenth-century South Sea Bubble fiasco to the minipanics of the early 1970s, covering every aspect of speculative manias and panics.
Author: Harold Bierman Jr.
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN: 0313007993
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
Attempting to reveal the real causes of the 1929 stock market crash, Bierman refutes the popular belief that wild speculation had excessively driven up stock market prices and resulted in the crash. Although he acknowledges some prices of stocks such as utilities and banks were overprices, reasonable explanations exist for the level and increase of all other securities stock prices. Indeed, if stocks were overpriced in 1929, then they more even more overpriced in the current era of staggering growth in stock prices and investment in securities. The causes of the 1929 crash, Bierman argues, lie in an unfavorable decision by the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities coupled with the popular practice known as debt leverage in the 1920s corporate and investment arena. This book extends Bierman's argument in an earlier book, The Great Myths of 1929 and the Lessons to Be Learned (Greenwood, 1991), in which he discussed and refuted seven myths about 1929 but could not explain the crash. He now believes he has a reasonable explanation. He also examines the actions of Charles E. Mitchell and Sam Insull and their subsequent unjust criminal prosecution after the crash of the 1929 stock market.
Author: William T Ziemba
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9813223863
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 309
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Book Description
'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authors’ research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.
Author: Edward Chancellor
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0452281806
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 401
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Book Description
A lively, original, and challenging history of stock market speculation from the 17th century to present day. Is your investment in that new Internet stock a sign of stock market savvy or an act of peculiarly American speculative folly? How has the psychology of investing changed—and not changed—over the last five hundred years? In Devil Take the Hindmost, Edward Chancellor traces the origins of the speculative spirit back to ancient Rome and chronicles its revival in the modern world: from the tulip scandal of 1630s Holland, to “stockjobbing” in London's Exchange Alley, to the infamous South Sea Bubble of 1720, which prompted Sir Isaac Newton to comment, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Here are brokers underwriting risks that included highway robbery and the “assurance of female chastity”; credit notes and lottery tickets circulating as money; wise and unwise investors from Alexander Pope and Benjamin Disraeli to Ivan Boesky and Hillary Rodham Clinton. From the Gilded Age to the Roaring Twenties, from the nineteenth century railway mania to the crash of 1929, from junk bonds and the Japanese bubble economy to the day-traders of the Information Era, Devil Take the Hindmost tells a fascinating story of human dreams and folly through the ages.
Author: Didier Sornette
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400885094
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 449
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Book Description
The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
Author: Arthur Ritter
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3656956332
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Seminar paper from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 15 (2,0), University of St Andrews (School of Management), course: Corporate Financial Management, language: English, abstract: Stock market crashes had occurred in the financial market since the very beginning and in every generation (Sornette, 2003a). “Greed, hubris and systemic fluctuations have given us the Tulip Mania, the South Sea bubble, the land booms in the 1920s and 1980s, the U.S. stock market and great crash in 1929, the October 1987 crash, to name just a few of the hundreds of ready examples“ (Sornette, 2003a, p. 7.). This essay will compare and contrast the last three major stock market crashes in 1987, 2000 and 2007. To do this, the essay will pay special emphasis on the causes of the three crashes. From there the essay will draw out the similarities and differences and will answer the question if boom and bust can be predicted.
Author: Peter Rössel
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3668728003
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
Academic Paper from the year 2018 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, Post University (Malcolm Baldrige School of Business), language: English, abstract: This paper was written in the course "Investment Management". It outlines the history of stock market crashes that occurred throughout time. Starting with the first big crash, the tulip mania, in the years of 1636 and 1637. Following, further big crashes up to recent days are presented and the reasons and outcomes of these are explained. A stock market crash can be defined as an extreme price collapse on the stock market. Usually this process takes a few days to a few weeks. During this period mostly panic sales, which generate a large excess supply and thus lead to drastically falling prices dominate the scene.
