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Author: Mr.Derek Anderson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513557882
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China’s growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and the buildup of infrastructure in the region. The impact of spillovers from China has been an open question because of the challenge to use an internally consistent framework with solid economic foundations that accounts for both the direct impact China may have on individual countries in SSA through a variety of channels (trade, investment, financial) as well as the impact on the region through the global economy (economic activity and commodity prices). This paper explores those channels of transmission and provides illustrative order of magnitude for the short- and medium-term economic impact by using AFRMOD, a module of the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), a multicountry general equilibrium model developed at the IMF. Three alternative scenarios are considered: first, lower potential output in China that is originally misperceived as a temporary cyclical slowdown; second, structural reforms in China that aim to increase potential output; and third, a relocation of low-end manufacturing to sub-Saharan Africa.
Author: Mr.Derek Anderson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513557882
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book
Book Description
What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China’s growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and the buildup of infrastructure in the region. The impact of spillovers from China has been an open question because of the challenge to use an internally consistent framework with solid economic foundations that accounts for both the direct impact China may have on individual countries in SSA through a variety of channels (trade, investment, financial) as well as the impact on the region through the global economy (economic activity and commodity prices). This paper explores those channels of transmission and provides illustrative order of magnitude for the short- and medium-term economic impact by using AFRMOD, a module of the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), a multicountry general equilibrium model developed at the IMF. Three alternative scenarios are considered: first, lower potential output in China that is originally misperceived as a temporary cyclical slowdown; second, structural reforms in China that aim to increase potential output; and third, a relocation of low-end manufacturing to sub-Saharan Africa.
Author: Mr.Paulo Drummond
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484311310
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
The rapid growth in China’s domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China’s investment growth on SSA’s exports. Although rising trading links with China have allowed African countries to diversify their export base across countries, away from advanced economies, they have also led SSA countries to become more susceptible to spillovers from China. Based on panel data analysis, a 1 percentage point increase (decline) in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point increase (decline) in SSA countries’ export growth. This impact is larger for resource-rich countries, especially oil exporters. These effects could be mitigated, however, to the extent that countries can reorient their exports.
Author: Mr.Paulo Drummond
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484311396
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
The rapid growth in China’s domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China’s investment growth on SSA’s exports. Although rising trading links with China have allowed African countries to diversify their export base across countries, away from advanced economies, they have also led SSA countries to become more susceptible to spillovers from China. Based on panel data analysis, a 1 percentage point increase (decline) in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point increase (decline) in SSA countries’ export growth. This impact is larger for resource-rich countries, especially oil exporters. These effects could be mitigated, however, to the extent that countries can reorient their exports.
Author: Mr.Roger Nord
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475583435
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
How does China’s new growth model affect sub-Saharan Africa? To address this question, this paper first looks at the growing ties between China and Africa; attempts to estimate more precisely the impact on growth through the trade channel; and finally draws some policy implications regarding whether this means an end of the Africa Rising narrative or merely the beginning of a new chapter.
Author: Dominik Kopiński
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031387155
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 284
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Book Description
What are the impacts of Chinese investment in Africa? Is it transforming economic development on the continent? This book is different from many other studies of this issue, as it unpacks the ‘black box’ of technological and learning spillover effects from Chinese firms to others. Rather than using econometric tools, which has now become a standard approach and come with their own set of challenges, the authors investigate the interactions between Chinese investors and African firms in terms of the transfer of technology and learning and explain why such interactions are rare. Only by understanding the reasons behind this rarity can approaches be developed to promote spillovers.
Author: Thomas Farole
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464801266
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 302
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Book Description
This book presents the results of a groundbreaking study on ‘spillovers’ of knowledge and technology from global value-chain oriented foreign direct investment (FDI) in Sub-Saharan Africa, and discusses implications for policymakers hoping to harness the power of FDI for economic development.
Author: Oliver Morrissey
Publisher: Commonwealth Secretariat
ISBN: 1849290555
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
Through detailed country-level analysis, this study offers contributions to the understanding of the relationship between China, India, and SSA. The authors review and assess the economic impacts, and provide recommendations to assist policy-makers enhance the ability of SSA countries to take advantage of new opportunities.
Author: Lynne Ciochetto
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1783266694
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 313
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Book Description
This timely book provides a comprehensive overview of the activities of the major foreign forces active in contemporary Sub-Saharan Africa. Stimulated by the abundance of reports in the media criticizing China's presence in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is an analysis of China's involvement in the region compared to the largest Western players: the United States, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. China has only been economically active in Sub-Saharan Africa since the 1990s, while the United States, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have been active since the 1950s. Indeed, the World Bank has been the major lender for development during the whole period. The book explores how these foreign interests have assisted with, or hindered progress towards, addressing the challenges facing the region. These challenges include high rates of poverty and low levels of human development, loss of political and economic sovereignty, periodic sluggish economic development, government indebtedness, illegal financial flows and corruption, the resource curse, environmental destruction and climate change. The approach is interdisciplinary and emphasises the key development issues: social, economic and environmental sustainability. An audit approach is used to explore changes within China and the West since the 1950s and evaluate their impact on Sub-Saharan Africa.China versus the US, World Bank and IMF in Sub-Saharan Africa is an important reference for academics, researchers and students. It is also written in an accessible style that is suitable for the general reader.
Author: Harry G. Broadman
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9780821368367
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 384
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Book Description
China and India's new-found interest in trade and investment with Africa - home to 300 million of the globe's poorest people and the world's most formidable development challenge - presents a significant opportunity for growth and integration of theSub-Saharan continent into the global economy. Africa's Silk Road finds that China and India's South-South commerce with Africa isabout far more than natural resources, opening the way for Africato become a processor of commodities and a competitive supplier of goods and services to these countries - a major departure from its long established relations with the North. A growing number of Chinese and Indian businesses active in Africa operate on a global scale, work with world-class technologies, produce products and services according to the most demanding standards, and foster the integration of African businesses into advanced markets.There are significant imbalances, however, in these emerging commercial relationships. These can be addressed through a series of reforms in all countries: 'At-the-border' reforms, such as elimination of China and India's escalating tariffs on Africa's leading exports, and elimination ofAfrica's tariffs on certain inputs that make exports uncompetitive 'Behind-the-border' reforms in Africa, to unleash competitive market forces and strengthen its basic market institutions 'Between-the-border' improvements in trade facilitation mechanisms to decrease transactions costs Reforms that leverage linkages between investment and trade, toallow African businesses to participate in global productionnetworks that investments by Chinese and Indian firms can generate.
Author: Gustavo Ramirez
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external demand for their exports, declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions abroad. The last, proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills, is to our knowledge one of the first applications of such a measure of financial conditions for countries in the region.
