Severe Lake-effect Snowstorms Over the Great Lakes [microform]: a Climatological, Numerical and Forecasting Approach (Ontario) PDF Download
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Author: Liu, Anthony Qi
Publisher: Library and Archives Canada = Bibliothèque et Archives Canada
ISBN: 9780494078075
Category : Physics Theses
Languages : en
Pages : 274
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Book Description
Lake-effect snowstorms are an important source of severe weather over the Great Lakes region, which typically occur as the cold and dry arctic air flows over the warm lakes after the passage of a synoptic-scale low-pressure system. The intense transfer of heat and moisture can trigger atmospheric convection that is typically organized into long quasi-two-dimensional features known as cloud streets, roll clouds or lake-effect snowbands. This type of cloud also occurs over the high-latitude ocean during cold air breaks. In this study, through developing a climatology of lake-effect snowstorms over Southern Ontario for the period 1992-99, we identify the distinguishing characteristics of the synoptic-scale environment associated with intense lake-effect snowstorms. We also find that the track of a low-pressure system can have a significant impact on the development or lack thereof of lake-effect snowstorms over southern Ontario. A cloud-resolving atmosphere model is employed to simulate the development of cloud streets over the Labrador Sea. The simulations were initialized and validated using observations during a cold air outbreak over the Labrador Sea. The model was able to reproduce the observed downstream evolution of the roll clouds, which indicates that the model can successfully capture the secondary flow associated with the roll clouds that results in significant differences in the temperature, humidity and momentum fields between the updrafts and downdrafts. After that, numerical simulations are employed to investigate the influence of synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions and ice concentrations on roll cloud development. The results indicate that the development of lake-effect snowstorms is significantly modified by the upstream airflow conditions including stability, humidity, air-lake, temperature difference and wind speed etc. The results also show that the sea-ice zone has a significant impact on the atmospheric boundary layer development, which can be seen in both the evolution of the cloud field and the development of heat and moisture transfer patterns. Finally through simulating an observed lake-effect snowstorm event, we demonstrate that future forecasting of such high impact weather systems with a high-resolution cloud-resolving model.
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Author: Liu, Anthony Qi
Publisher: Library and Archives Canada = Bibliothèque et Archives Canada
ISBN: 9780494078075
Category : Physics Theses
Languages : en
Pages : 274
Get Book Here
Book Description
Lake-effect snowstorms are an important source of severe weather over the Great Lakes region, which typically occur as the cold and dry arctic air flows over the warm lakes after the passage of a synoptic-scale low-pressure system. The intense transfer of heat and moisture can trigger atmospheric convection that is typically organized into long quasi-two-dimensional features known as cloud streets, roll clouds or lake-effect snowbands. This type of cloud also occurs over the high-latitude ocean during cold air breaks. In this study, through developing a climatology of lake-effect snowstorms over Southern Ontario for the period 1992-99, we identify the distinguishing characteristics of the synoptic-scale environment associated with intense lake-effect snowstorms. We also find that the track of a low-pressure system can have a significant impact on the development or lack thereof of lake-effect snowstorms over southern Ontario. A cloud-resolving atmosphere model is employed to simulate the development of cloud streets over the Labrador Sea. The simulations were initialized and validated using observations during a cold air outbreak over the Labrador Sea. The model was able to reproduce the observed downstream evolution of the roll clouds, which indicates that the model can successfully capture the secondary flow associated with the roll clouds that results in significant differences in the temperature, humidity and momentum fields between the updrafts and downdrafts. After that, numerical simulations are employed to investigate the influence of synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions and ice concentrations on roll cloud development. The results indicate that the development of lake-effect snowstorms is significantly modified by the upstream airflow conditions including stability, humidity, air-lake, temperature difference and wind speed etc. The results also show that the sea-ice zone has a significant impact on the atmospheric boundary layer development, which can be seen in both the evolution of the cloud field and the development of heat and moisture transfer patterns. Finally through simulating an observed lake-effect snowstorm event, we demonstrate that future forecasting of such high impact weather systems with a high-resolution cloud-resolving model.
Author: Jacob Wiley
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The lee shores of the North American Great Lakes are subject to hazardous amounts of snowfall each winter as continental polar air masses are destabilized by the relatively warmer lakes which manifests as pronounced heat and moisture fluxes and subsequent convection and snow generation. This phenomenon, known as lake-effect snow (LES), has been studied by the atmospheric scientific community extensively as the local and mesoscale processes are becoming better understood through the implementation of in situ research projects and high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. However, considerably less research effort has inquired on what large-scale conditions are linked with lake-effect snow. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the synoptic-scale conditions associated with lake-effect snowstorms and how they differentiate with non-LES winter storms. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to LES and reviews the basic dynamics of LES formation in the form of a comprehensive literature review. Chapter 2 consists of the first synoptic climatologies of lake-effect snowstorms off Lakes Michigan and Superior through statistical analysis of past lake-effect cases off those two lakes. Chapter 3 focuses on developing a synoptic climatology of wintertime cyclonic systems, specifically Alberta Clippers, that traversed the Great Lakes basin but did not result in lake-effect snow formation. Chapter 4 features the development of an objective classification model that differentiates between these two winter weather phenomena by using past LES and non-LES winter storm case repositories to train and test the model. This research effort will focus on wintertime Alberta Clipper systems and LES off Lakes Erie and Ontario. Finally, Chapter 5 reviews the primary results from this research and discusses their significance and implications regarding possible future research.
Author: David C. L. Lam
Publisher: ASCE Publications
ISBN: 9780784474686
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
This report provides a state-of-the-art review of the climate change effects on lake hydrodynamics and water quality. Most of the engineering cases in this book deal with the ability of existing infrastructure to cope with extreme weather conditions. The case studies are intended to illustrate the advancement in modeling research on lake hydrodynamics, thermal stratification, pollutant transport, and water quality by highlighting the climate change aspects in the application of these techniques. Topics include climate and lake responses, lake thermodynamics, large-scale circulation, wind-waves on large lakes, great lakes ice cover, and water quality.
Author: Janine A. Baijnath-Rodino
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 135
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Book Description
The leeward shores of the Laurentian Great Lakes are highly susceptible to lake-induced snowfall that is either driven by extratropical cyclones or lake effect processes. During the late autumn and winter season, cold air advection over relatively warm lakes induces instability in the lower planetary boundary layer (PBL). This process facilitates the exchange of moisture and energy fluxes and fuels the development of snowfall. In addition, the large thermal capacity of the lakes can enhance existing precipitation that is associated with frontal boundaries moving over the Great Lakes Basin (GLB). Lake-induced snowfall can produce whiteout snowsqualls and heavy snowfall accumulations in highly localized areas, which can affect residential, agricultural, economic, and recreational sectors within the GLB. Therefore, the dangerous impacts of lake-induced snowfall on snowbelt communities warrant the need for improved spatiotemporal investigations in observed and predicted snowfall. Despite many snowfall studies, three gaps have been identified. The first gap suggests that minimal snowfall research has been conducted for the Ontario snowbelts of Lake Superior and Lake Huron-Georgian Bay (hereinafter referred to as Lake Huron). The second gap identifies that there has been limited investigations conducted on climatological trends in snowfall and LES predictor variables. The third gap suggests that most lake-induced snowfall studies have employed coarse global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) at spatial resolutions that make it difficult to delineate meso-beta scale LES snow bands. Thus, the objective of this study is to conduct historical spatiotemporal trends in snowfall and LES predictor variables, and to examine the predictive performance of a RCM in capturing LES events for the under-studied regions of the Canadian Laurentian Great Lakes' snowbelts. Manuscript 1 investigated 1980-2015 spatiotemporal trends in monthly total snowfall and total precipitation over the GLB using the Daymet (Version 3), hereinafter referred to as Daymet, gridded dataset. Results showed a significant decrease in snowfall (at the 95% confidence level), at a rate of 40 cm/36yrs, and a significant decrease in total precipitation of 20 mm/36yrs, along the Ontario snowbelts of Lake Superior and partially along that of Lake Huron. Attributions to these negative spatiotemporal trends are explored using data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the Canadian Ice Service (CIS). Predictor variables showed significant warming in lake surface temperature (LST) at a rate of over 6 °K/36yrs for Lake Superior; significant decrease in ice cover fraction for both lakes; and an increase in the vertical temperature gradient (VTG). While the resultant trends of these variables are believed to enhance snowfall in these regions, through increased evaporation into the lower PBL, there are other complex processes involved, such as inefficient moisture recycling and increased moisture storage in warmer air masses that inhibit the rapid production of precipitation. Following the identification of trends in monthly snowfall totals, the second manuscript explored whether historical spatiotemporal trends in monthly snowfall extremes were also changing. Manuscript 2 assessed the intensity, frequency, and duration of snowfall within Ontario's GLB. Monthly spatiotemporal snowfall and total precipitation trends were computed for the 1980-2015 period using Daymet. Results showed that extreme snowfall intensity, frequency, and duration have significantly decreased, at the 90% confidence level, predominantly in December and January along Lake Superior's snowbelt. Intensity has decreased at a rate of approximately 6 cm/36yrs and 2 cm/36yrs for December and January, respectively. The frequency in extreme snowfall events has decreased by 5 days/36yrs. Furthermore, the number of consecutive days of extreme snowfall events have decreased at a rate of 1 day/36yrs. The Canadian snowbelts of Lake Superior and Lake Huron exhibited different spatiotemporal patterns, and even within a particular snowbelt region, trends in extreme snowfall are not spatially coherent. Discussions into the local and large-scale surface-atmosphere variables that influence these spatiotemporal trends were presented. Finally, in order to investigate future trends in snowfall over the GLB, reliable high resolution RCMs are required to accurately predict historical LES events. Thus, Manuscript 3 conducted validation testing on the high resolution, 0.11° (12 km), Canadian Regional Climate Model Version 5 (CRCM5), interactively coupled to the one-dimensional Freshwater Lake model (FLake). Predictions of snow water equivalent (SWE) and precipitation along the Canadian snowbelts of Lake Superior and Lake Huron during the months of December and January were tested for the period 1995-2014. This study assessed the model's performance in predicting the timing, location, and precipitation accumulation of specific lake-induced events during a high (2013-2014) and a low (20112012) ice season. Findings showed that December SWE had a negative mean bias difference (MBD) [less than or equal to] -10 mm along both snowbelts, with values [less than or equal to]-30 mm in January. Similarly, December precipitation showed MBD [less than or equal to]-5 mm and January's precipitation MBD [less than or equal to] -10 mm for both snowbelts. Comparison of lake-induced precipitation events also showed that the model mostly under-predicts the daily accumulated precipitation associated with each event but tends to accurately capture the timing and the general location of the snowsqualls along the snowbelts, though not for highly localized snow bands. The findings gained from this thesis, through exploring historical spatiotemporal snowfall trends and RCM validation analyses, are essential for sustainability and adaptation studies.
Author: Robert W. Scott
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Great Lakes Region (North America)
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Book Description
Author: Val L. Eichenlaub
Publisher: Notre Dame, Ind. : University of Notre Dame Press
ISBN:
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 360
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Book Description
Probes climatic patterns in the Great Lakes, atmospheric controls, the ways in which the Great Lakes affect weather, and the role of man in altering the weather of the Great Lakes region.
Author: Canadian Climate Centre
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 230
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
The symposium concluded that there is a high likelihood of a major climatic change in the Great Lakes Basin, and recommended that the U. S. and Canada establish a joint planning group to develop an integrated study of the Great Lakes Basin as a regional pilot project.
Author: Jennifer J. Johnson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Great Lakes Region (North America)
Languages : en
Pages : 264
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Book Description
Author: Frank H. Quinn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Precipitation (Meteorology)
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Accurate values of monthly precipitation are required for simulation, forecasting, and water resource studies of the Great Lakes and their basins. There are often significant errors in the present method of computing these values because of technique problems accentuated when data from preselected stations are missing. Therefore, a monthly precipitation climatology was derived by a modified Thiessen approach using a grid-square technique. The resulting data set, which represents a major improvement over that presently in use, is presented here.
