Semiparametric Bayesian Inference of Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility Models PDF Download
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Author: Mark J. Jensen
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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In this paper, a semiparametric, Bayesian estimator of the long-memory stochastic volatility model's fractional order of integration is presented. This new estimator relies on a highly efficient, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler of the model's posterior distribution. The MCMC algorithm is set forth in the time-scale domain of the stochastic volatility model's wavelet representation. The key to and centerpiece of this new algorithm is the quick and efficient multi-state sampler of the latent volatility's wavelet coefficients. A multi-state sampler of the latent wavelet coefficients is only possible because of the near-independent multivariate distribution of the long-memory process's wavelet coefficients. Using simulated and empirical stock return data, we find that our algorithm produces uncorrelated draws of the posterior distribution and point estimates that rival existing long-memory stochastic volatility estimators.
Author: Mark J. Jensen
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ISBN:
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
In this paper, a semiparametric, Bayesian estimator of the long-memory stochastic volatility model's fractional order of integration is presented. This new estimator relies on a highly efficient, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler of the model's posterior distribution. The MCMC algorithm is set forth in the time-scale domain of the stochastic volatility model's wavelet representation. The key to and centerpiece of this new algorithm is the quick and efficient multi-state sampler of the latent volatility's wavelet coefficients. A multi-state sampler of the latent wavelet coefficients is only possible because of the near-independent multivariate distribution of the long-memory process's wavelet coefficients. Using simulated and empirical stock return data, we find that our algorithm produces uncorrelated draws of the posterior distribution and point estimates that rival existing long-memory stochastic volatility estimators.
Author: Mark J. Jensen
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
In this paper we are concerned with estimating the fractional order of integration associated with a long-memory stochastic volatility model. We develop a new Bayesian estimator based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler and the wavelet representation of the log-squared returns to draw values of the fractional order of integration and latent volatilities from their joint posterior distribution. Unlike short-memory stochastic volatility models, long-memory stochastic volatility models do not have a state-space representation, and thus their sampler cannot employ the Kalman filters simulation smoother to update the chain of latent volatilities. Instead, we design a simulator where the latent long-memory volatilities are drawn quickly and efficiently from the near independent multivariate distribution of the long-memory volatility's wavelet coefficients. We find that sampling volatility in the wavelet domain, rather than in the time domain, leads to a fast and simulation-efficient sampler of the posterior distribution for the volatility's long-memory parameter and serves as a promising alternative estimator to the existing frequentist based estimators of long-memory volatility.
Author: Mark J. Jensen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Author: Steven Durlauf
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230280838
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 417
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Book Description
Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.
Author: Suleyman Taspinar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
In this study, we propose a spatial stochastic volatility model in which the latent log-volatility terms follow a spatial autoregressive process. Though there is no spatial correlation in the outcome equation (the mean equation), the spatial autoregressive process defined for the log-volatility terms introduces spatial dependence in the outcome equation. To introduce a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation algorithm, we transform the model so that the outcome equation takes the form of log-squared terms. We approximate the distribution of the log-squared error terms in the outcome equation with a finite mixture of normal distributions so that the transformed model turns into a linear Gaussian state-space model. Our simulation results indicate that the Bayesian estimator has satisfactory finite sample properties. We investigate the practical usefulness of our proposed model and estimation method by using the price returns of residential properties in the broader Chicago Metropolitan area.
Author: Stefanos Giakoumatos
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783838386331
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 240
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Book Description
The phenomenon of changing variance and covariance is often encountered in financial time series. As a result, during the last years researchers focused on the time-varying volatility models. These models are able to describe the main characteristics of the financial data such as the volatility clustering. In addition, the development of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques (MCMC) provides a powerful tool for the estimation of the parameters of the time-varying volatility models, in the context of Bayesian analysis. In this thesis, we adopt the Bayesian inference and we propose easy-to-apply MCMC algorithms for a variety of time-varying volatility models. We use a recent development in the context of the MCMC techniques, the Auxiliary variable sampler. This technique enables us to construct MCMC algorithms, which only consist of Gibbs steps. We propose new MCMC algorithms for many univariate and multivariate models. Furthermore, we apply the proposed MCMC algorithms to real data and compare the above models based on their predictive distribution
Author: Ivan Jeliazkov
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118771125
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 266
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Book Description
Presents new models, methods, and techniques and considers important real-world applications in political science, sociology, economics, marketing, and finance Emphasizing interdisciplinary coverage, Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences builds upon the recent growth in Bayesian methodology and examines an array of topics in model formulation, estimation, and applications. The book presents recent and trending developments in a diverse, yet closely integrated, set of research topics within the social sciences and facilitates the transmission of new ideas and methodology across disciplines while maintaining manageability, coherence, and a clear focus. Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences features innovative methodology and novel applications in addition to new theoretical developments and modeling approaches, including the formulation and analysis of models with partial observability, sample selection, and incomplete data. Additional areas of inquiry include a Bayesian derivation of empirical likelihood and method of moment estimators, and the analysis of treatment effect models with endogeneity. The book emphasizes practical implementation, reviews and extends estimation algorithms, and examines innovative applications in a multitude of fields. Time series techniques and algorithms are discussed for stochastic volatility, dynamic factor, and time-varying parameter models. Additional features include: Real-world applications and case studies that highlight asset pricing under fat-tailed distributions, price indifference modeling and market segmentation, analysis of dynamic networks, ethnic minorities and civil war, school choice effects, and business cycles and macroeconomic performance State-of-the-art computational tools and Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms with related materials available via the book’s supplemental website Interdisciplinary coverage from well-known international scholars and practitioners Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences is an ideal reference for researchers in economics, political science, sociology, and business as well as an excellent resource for academic, government, and regulation agencies. The book is also useful for graduate-level courses in applied econometrics, statistics, mathematical modeling and simulation, numerical methods, computational analysis, and the social sciences.
Author:
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349588024
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 7493
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Book Description
The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.
Author: Libo Xie
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Zhongxian Men
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 163
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Book Description
Stochastic volatility (SV) models provide a natural framework for a representation of time series for financial asset returns. As a result, they have become increasingly popular in the finance literature, although they have also been applied in other fields such as signal processing, telecommunications, engineering, biology, and other areas. In working with the SV models, an important issue arises as how to estimate their parameters efficiently and to assess how well they fit real data. In the literature, commonly used estimation methods for the SV models include general methods of moments, simulated maximum likelihood methods, quasi Maximum likelihood method, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Among these approaches, MCMC methods are most flexible in dealing with complicated structure of the models. However, due to the difficulty in the selection of the proposal distribution for Metropolis-Hastings methods, in general they are not easy to implement and in some cases we may also encounter convergence problems in the implementation stage. In the light of these concerns, we propose in this thesis new estimation methods for univariate and multivariate SV models.
