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Author: Lawrence D. Brown
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We investigate the implications of recommendation-forecast consistency for the informativeness of stock recommendations and earnings forecasts and the quality of analysts' earnings forecasts. Stock recommendations and earnings forecasts are often issued simultaneously and evaluated jointly by investors. However, the two signals are often inconsistent with each other. Defining a recommendation-forecast pair as consistent if both of them are above or below their existing consensus, we find that 58.3% of recommendation-forecast pairs are consistent in our sample. We document that consistent pairs result in much stronger market reactions than inconsistent pairs. We show that analysts making consistent recommendation-forecasts make more accurate and timelier forecasts than do analysts making inconsistent recommendation-forecasts, suggesting that consistent analysts make higher quality earnings forecasts. We extend the literature on informativeness of analyst research by showing that recommendation-forecast consistency is an important ex ante signal regarding both firm valuation and earnings forecast quality. Investors and researchers can use consistency as a salient, ex ante signal to identify more informative analyst research and superior earnings forecasts.
Author: Lawrence D. Brown
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We investigate the implications of recommendation-forecast consistency for the informativeness of stock recommendations and earnings forecasts and the quality of analysts' earnings forecasts. Stock recommendations and earnings forecasts are often issued simultaneously and evaluated jointly by investors. However, the two signals are often inconsistent with each other. Defining a recommendation-forecast pair as consistent if both of them are above or below their existing consensus, we find that 58.3% of recommendation-forecast pairs are consistent in our sample. We document that consistent pairs result in much stronger market reactions than inconsistent pairs. We show that analysts making consistent recommendation-forecasts make more accurate and timelier forecasts than do analysts making inconsistent recommendation-forecasts, suggesting that consistent analysts make higher quality earnings forecasts. We extend the literature on informativeness of analyst research by showing that recommendation-forecast consistency is an important ex ante signal regarding both firm valuation and earnings forecast quality. Investors and researchers can use consistency as a salient, ex ante signal to identify more informative analyst research and superior earnings forecasts.
Author: Sebastian Gell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3834939374
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Book Description
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Author: John R. Graham
Publisher: Now Pub
ISBN: 9781601986122
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 176
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Book Description
Accounting for Income Taxes is the most comprehensive review of AFIT research. It is designed both to introduce new scholars to this field and to encourage active researchers to expand frontiers related to accounting for income taxes. Accounting for Income Taxes includes both a primer about the rules governing AFIT (Sections 3-4) and a review of the scholarly studies in the field (Sections 5-8). The primer uses accessible examples and clear language to express essential AFIT rules and institutional features. Section 3 reviews the basic rules and institutional details governing AFIT. Section 4 discusses ways that researchers, policymakers, and other interested parties can use the tax information in financial statements to better approximate information in the tax return. The second half of the monograph reviews the extant scholarly studies by splitting the research literature into four topics: earnings management, the association between book-tax differences and earnings characteristics, the equity market pricing of information in the tax accounts, and book-tax conformity. Section 5 focuses on the use of the tax accounts to manage earnings through the valuation allowance, the income tax contingency, and permanently reinvested foreign earnings. Section 6 discusses the association between book-tax differences and earnings characteristics, namely earnings growth and earnings persistence. Section 7 explores how tax information is reflected in share prices. Section 8 reviews the increased alignment of accounting for book purposes and tax purposes. The remainder of the paper focuses on topics of general interest in the economics and econometric literatures. Section 9 highlights some issues of general importance including a theoretical framework to interpret and guide empirical AFIT studies, the disaggregated components of book-tax differences and research opportunities as the U.S. moves toward International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Section 10 discusses econometric weaknesses that are common in AFIT research and proposes ways to mitigate their deleterious effects.
Author: Jason Hall
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
We examine whether it is profitable to trade according to the recommendations of analysts who made accurate earnings forecasts in a prior year. Prior research has shown that analysts who made the most accurate earnings forecasts in the current period also made the most profitable recommendations during that period. Unfortunately, our research shows that these accurate forecasters cannot be identified on the basis of their track record. While there is statistically significant evidence that forecasting ability is persistent, it is not sufficient to generate profitable stock recommendations in the future. We also attempted to identify superior analysts with respect to the combination of forecast accuracy and recommendation profitability. Even with this finer segmentation of analysts there is no difference in their ability to make profitable recommendations in the future. Furthermore, regardless of forecasting ability, analysts are pre-disposed to recommend stocks with low book-to-market ratios and positive price momentum. This bias may impede their ability to make profitable recommendations.
Author: Andreas Simon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
We examine how analysts' incentives to build their reputation through accurate forecasting changes the relative association between analyst recommendations and rigorous valuation models versus valuation heuristics. Controlling for the firm-specific difficulty of valuation, we show that the recommendations of the most accurate forecasters within each industry have a significantly higher correlation with rigorous valuation models and a significantly lower correlation with valuation heuristics than their less accurate peers. Our results are robust to potentially confounding firm-specific effects using a within-firm sample design, a changes analysis, and for short-term, long-term and combined measures of forecast accuracy. Consistent with reputation building, we find that the recommendations of ldquo;All-Starrdquo; analysts and accurate forecasters have similar associations on rigorous and heuristic valuation approaches. Our results are consistent with the incentive to build a good reputation mitigating the influence of factors other than identifying mispriced securities, using fundamental analysis, on stock recommendations.
Author: Tanja Klettke
Publisher: Springer Science & Business
ISBN: 3658056347
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
Author: Jochen Lawrenz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
This paper analyzes empirically the relation between financial analysts' recommendation profitability and their forecast accuracy and shows that contrary to intuition the group of most successful recommendations is not associated with the highest accuracy on average. The finding that best performing recommendations are not the most accurate ones is stronger under conditions of asymmetric information and related to the impact of forecast consistency. Our results emphasize the importance of the extent to which forecasts are correlated, and contributes to the understanding of the lack of a clear-cut relation between accuracy and recommendation profitability.
Author: Wenjuan Xie
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 138
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Book Description
Author: Richard H. Thaler
Publisher: Russell Sage Foundation
ISBN: 9780871548443
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 628
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Book Description
Modern financial markets offer the real world's best approximation to the idealized price auction market envisioned in economic theory. Nevertheless, as the increasingly exquisite and detailed financial data demonstrate, financial markets often fail to behave as they should if trading were truly dominated by the fully rational investors that populate financial theories. These markets anomalies have spawned a new approach to finance, one which as editor Richard Thaler puts it, "entertains the possibility that some agents in the economy behave less than fully rationally some of the time." Advances in Behavioral Finance collects together twenty-one recent articles that illustrate the power of this approach. These papers demonstrate how specific departures from fully rational decision making by individual market agents can provide explanations of otherwise puzzling market phenomena. To take several examples, Werner De Bondt and Thaler find an explanation for superior price performance of firms with poor recent earnings histories in the tendencies of investors to overreact to recent information. Richard Roll traces the negative effects of corporate takeovers on the stock prices of the acquiring firms to the overconfidence of managers, who fail to recognize the contributions of chance to their past successes. Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny show how the difficulty of establishing a reliable reputation for correctly assessing the value of long term capital projects can lead investment analysis, and hence corporate managers, to focus myopically on short term returns. As a testing ground for assessing the empirical accuracy of behavioral theories, the successful studies in this landmark collection reach beyond the world of finance to suggest, very powerfully, the importance of pursuing behavioral approaches to other areas of economic life. Advances in Behavioral Finance is a solid beachhead for behavioral work in the financial arena and a clear promise of wider application for behavioral economics in the future.
Author: Elio Alfonso
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
