Rational Expectations and the Estimation of Econometric Models PDF Download
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Author: Charles R. Nelson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
Author: Charles R. Nelson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
Author: Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226531929
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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Book Description
A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.
Author: Robert E. Lucas
Publisher: U of Minnesota Press
ISBN: 1452908281
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 335
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Book Description
Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000308960
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
At the core of the rational expectations revolution is the insight that economic policy does not operate independently of economic agents' knowledge of that policy and their expectations of the effects of that policy. This means that there are very complicated feedback relationships existing between policy and the behaviour of economic agents, and these relationships pose very difficult problems in econometrics when one tries to exploit the rational expectations insight in formal economic modelling. This volume consists of work by two rational expectations pioneers dealing with the "nuts and bolts" problems of modelling the complications introduced by rational expectations. Each paper deals with aspects of the problem of making inferences about parameters of a dynamic economic model on the basis of time series observations. Each exploits restrictions on an econometric model imposed by the hypothesis that agents within the model have rational expectations.
Author: M. R. Wickens
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780909541354
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
Author: Mike Wickens
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
Author: P. Fisher
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401580022
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 215
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Book Description
It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Author: Ray C. Fair
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674831803
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 504
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Book Description
This book gives a practical, applications-oriented account of the latest techniques for estimating and analyzing large, nonlinear macroeconomic models. Ray Fair demonstrates the application of these techniques in a detailed presentation of several actual models, including his United States model, his multicountry model, Sargent's classical macroeconomic model, autoregressive and vector autoregressive models, and a small (twelve equation) linear structural model. He devotes a good deal of attention to the difficult and often neglected problem of moving from theoretical to econometric models. In addition, he provides an extensive discussion of optimal control techniques and methods for estimating and analyzing rational expectations models. A computer program that handles all the techniques in the book is available from the author, making it possible to use the techniques with little additional programming. The book presents the logic of this program. A smaller program for personal microcomputers for analysis of Fair's United States model is available from Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc. Anyone wanting to learn how to use large macroeconomic models, including researchers, graduate students, economic forecasters, and people in business and government both in the United States and abroad, will find this an essential guidebook.
Author: Robert E. Lucas
Publisher: U of Minnesota Press
ISBN: 1452901716
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 410
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Book Description
Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice was first published in 1981. Minnesota Archive Editions uses digital technology to make long-unavailable books once again accessible, and are published unaltered from the original University of Minnesota Press editions. Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, government subsidy schemes and regulations. The doctrine of rational expectations uses standard economic methods to explain how those expectations are formed. This work collects the papers that have made significant contributions to formulating the idea of rational expectations. Most of the papers deal with the connections between observed economic behavior and the evaluation of alternative economic policies. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., is professor of economics at the University of Chicago. Thomas J. Sargent is professor of economics at the University of Minnesota and adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota.
Author: L. Broze
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483296288
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 249
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Book Description
This book is devoted to the econometric analysis of linear multivariate rational expectation models. It shows that the interpretation of multiplicity in terms of "new degrees of freedom" is consistent with a rigorous econometric reasoning. Non-uniqueness is the central theme of this book. Each chapter is concerned with a specific econometric aspect of rational expectations equilibria. The most constructive result lies in the possibility of an empirical determination of the equilibrium followed by the economy.
