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Author: Herrera
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Currencies and Exchange Rates
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Abstract: Recent estimates of the welfare cost of consumption volatility find that it is significant in developing nations, where it may reach an equivalent of reducing consumption by 10 percent per year. Hence, examining the determinants of consumption volatility is of utmost relevance. Based on cross-country data for the period 1960-2005, the paper explains consumption volatility using three sets of variables: one refers to the volatility of income and the persistence of income shocks; the second set of variables refers to policy volatility, considering the volatility of public spending and the size of government; while the third set captures the ability of agents to smooth shocks, and includes the depth of the domestic financial markets as well as the degree of integration to international capital markets. To allow for potential endogenous regressors, in particular the volatility of fiscal policy and the size of government, the system is estimated using the instrumental variables method. The results indicate that, besides income volatility, the variables with the largest and most robust impact on consumption volatility are government size and the volatility of public spending. Results also show that deeper and more stable domestic financial markets reduce the volatility of consumption, and that more integrated financial markets to the international capital markets are associated with lower volatility of consumption.
Author: Herrera
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Currencies and Exchange Rates
Languages : en
Pages : 25
Get Book Here
Book Description
Abstract: Recent estimates of the welfare cost of consumption volatility find that it is significant in developing nations, where it may reach an equivalent of reducing consumption by 10 percent per year. Hence, examining the determinants of consumption volatility is of utmost relevance. Based on cross-country data for the period 1960-2005, the paper explains consumption volatility using three sets of variables: one refers to the volatility of income and the persistence of income shocks; the second set of variables refers to policy volatility, considering the volatility of public spending and the size of government; while the third set captures the ability of agents to smooth shocks, and includes the depth of the domestic financial markets as well as the degree of integration to international capital markets. To allow for potential endogenous regressors, in particular the volatility of fiscal policy and the size of government, the system is estimated using the instrumental variables method. The results indicate that, besides income volatility, the variables with the largest and most robust impact on consumption volatility are government size and the volatility of public spending. Results also show that deeper and more stable domestic financial markets reduce the volatility of consumption, and that more integrated financial markets to the international capital markets are associated with lower volatility of consumption.
Author: Santiago Herrera
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Recent estimates of the welfare cost of consumption volatility find that it is significant in developing nations, where it may reach an equivalent of reducing consumption by 10 percent per year. Hence, examining the determinants of consumption volatility is of utmost relevance. Based on cross-country data for the period 1960-2005, the paper explains consumption volatility using three sets of variables: one refers to the volatility of income and the persistence of income shocks; the second set of variables refers to policy volatility, considering the volatility of public spending and the size of government; while the third set captures the ability of agents to smooth shocks, and includes the depth of the domestic financial markets as well as the degree of integration to international capital markets. To allow for potential endogenous regressors, in particular the volatility of fiscal policy and the size of government, the system is estimated using the instrumental variables method. The results indicate that, besides income volatility, the variables with the largest and most robust impact on consumption volatility are government size and the volatility of public spending. Results also show that deeper and more stable domestic financial markets reduce the volatility of consumption, and that more integrated financial markets to the international capital markets are associated with lower volatility of consumption.
Author: Santiago Herrera
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Access to Finance
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Abstract: Given that public spending will have a positive impact on GDP if the benefits exceed the marginal cost of public funds, the present paper deals with measuring costs and benefits of public spending. The paper discusses one cost seldom considered in the literature and in policy debates, namely, the volatility derived from additional public spending. The paper identifies a relationship between public spending volatility and consumption volatility, which implies a direct welfare loss to society. This loss is substantial in developing countries, estimated at 8 percent of consumption. If welfare losses due to volatility are this sizeable, then measuring the benefits of public spending is critical. Gauging benefits based on macro aggregate data requires three caveats: a) considering of the impact of the funding (taxation) required for the additional public spending; b) differentiating between investment and capital formation; c) allowing for heterogeneous response of output to different types of capital and differences in network development. It is essential to go beyond country-specificity to project-level evaluation of the benefits and costs of public projects. From the micro viewpoint, the rate of return of a project must exceed the marginal cost of public funds, determined by tax levels and structure. Credible evaluations require microeconomic evidence and careful specification of counterfactuals. On this, the impact evaluation literature and methods play a critical role. From individual project evaluation, the analyst must contemplate the general equilibrium impacts. In general, the paper advocates for project evaluation as a central piece of any development platform. By increasing the efficiency of public spending, the government can permanently increase the rate of productivity growth and, hence, affect the growth rate of GDP.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Santiago Herrera
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Recent estimates of the welfare cost of consumption volatility find that it is significant in developing nations, where it may reach an equivalent of reducing consumption by 10 percent per year. Hence, examining the determinants of consumption volatility is of utmost relevance. Based on cross-country data for the period 1960-2005, the paper explains consumption volatility using three sets of variables: one refers to the volatility of income and the persistence of income shocks; the second set of variables refers to policy volatility, considering the volatility of public spending and the size of government; while the third set captures the ability of agents to smooth shocks, and includes the depth of the domestic financial markets as well as the degree of integration to international capital markets. To allow for potential endogenous regressors, in particular the volatility of fiscal policy and the size of government, the system is estimated using the instrumental variables method. The results indicate that, besides income volatility, the variables with the largest and most robust impact on consumption volatility are government size and the volatility of public spending. Results also show that deeper and more stable domestic financial markets reduce the volatility of consumption, and that more integrated financial markets to the international capital markets are associated with lower volatility of consumption.
Author: Santiago Herrera
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Given that public spending will have a positive impact on GDP if the benefits exceed the marginal cost of public funds, the present paper deals with measuring costs and benefits of public spending. The paper discusses one cost seldom considered in the literature and in policy debates, namely, the volatility derived from additional public spending. The paper identifies a relationship between public spending volatility and consumption volatility, which implies a direct welfare loss to society. This loss is substantial in developing countries, estimated at 8 percent of consumption. If welfare losses due to volatility are this sizeable, then measuring the benefits of public spending is critical. Gauging benefits based on macro aggregate data requires three caveats: a) considering of the impact of the funding (taxation) required for the additional public spending; b) differentiating between investment and capital formation; c) allowing for heterogeneous response of output to different types of capital and differences in network development. It is essential to go beyond country-specificity to project-level evaluation of the benefits and costs of public projects. From the micro viewpoint, the rate of return of a project must exceed the marginal cost of public funds, determined by tax levels and structure. Credible evaluations require microeconomic evidence and careful specification of counterfactuals. On this, the impact evaluation literature and methods play a critical role. From individual project evaluation, the analyst must contemplate the general equilibrium impacts. In general, the paper advocates for project evaluation as a central piece of any development platform. By increasing the efficiency of public spending, the government can permanently increase the rate of productivity growth and, hence, affect the growth rate of GDP.
Author: Gunnar Tersman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451946139
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper studies the volatility of consumption relative to output in the context of a simple general equilibrium model of a small open economy subject to exogenous shocks in productivity. With infinite horizons and exogenous relative prices, the model generates variance estimates that are well above what can be observed in empirical data. While finite horizons and endogenous terms of trade reduce the volatility of consumption, the model fails to generate sufficient serial correlation with respect to the consumption growth rate. If the household’s decision problem is modified to take into account durability and adjustment costs, the model does well on both dimensions.
Author: Davide Furceri
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: Weltbank
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The Kyrgyz Republic suffered severe shocks during the early years of independence, loosing its traditional markets in the Former Soviet Union republics, as well as substantial transfers and subsidies from the Soviet Union, that included a falling GDP during the first five years of transition. These circumstances prompted the Kyrgyz Republic to adopt a wide range of reforms to accelerate the transition to a market economy, emphasizing price and trade liberalization, and the shift of ownership of state assets to the private sector, including land, and most state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Since the mid-l990s, the economy has shown steady signs of recovery. Despite these favorable developments, the Kyrgyz Republic remains the second poorest of the FSU republics, and one of the poorest countries in the world. Absolute poverty affected about half of the population in spite of progress made in 2001, and, although poverty is highest in rural areas, there are large regional disparities, where transient poverty is high as a result of high consumption volatility. Access to public services such as water and sewerage, electricity, district heating, and telecommunication services, is very low. This Public Expenditure Review (PER) has sought to provide a strategic framework for fiscal adjustment and public expenditure reform, consistent with the government's objectives for accelerated growth and poverty reduction. The broad contours o f the strategy are: To stabilize the government's finances through stronger revenue, and expenditure management instruments and institutions, as well as through debt relief; to re-align sector policies with the most essential country priorities, with a general thrust toward improving targeted, and efficient use of resources in both social and public infrastructure sectors; to revamp the public administration to improve policy implementation and service delivery; and, to secure external financial support. Given the fragile external debt situation and the extent of poverty, priority has to be given to fiscal adjustment and the expenditure reform agenda. Government performance needs to be monitored, particularly at the grass roots levels, through systematic diagnoses of institutional problems, and through quantitative performance indicators, to monitor progress and competition in public service delivery.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264192603
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 497
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Book Description
Managing Public Expenditure presents a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of all aspects of public expenditure management from the preparation of the budget to the execution, control and audit stages.
