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Author: Wayne R. Guay
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We evaluate the influence of measurement error in analysts' forecasts on the accuracy of implied cost of capital estimates from various implementations of the 'implied cost of capital' approach, and develop corrections for the measurement error. The implied cost of capital approach relies on analysts' short- and long-term earnings forecasts as proxies for the market's expectation of future earnings, and solves for the implied discount rate that equates the present value of the expected future payoffs to the current stock price. We document predictable error in the implied cost of capital estimates resulting from analysts' forecasts that are sluggish with respect to information in past stock returns. We propose two methods to mitigate the influence of sluggish forecasts on the implied cost of capital estimates. These methods substantially improve the ability of the implied cost of capital estimates to explain cross-sectional variation in future stock returns, which is consistent with the corrections being effective in mitigating the error in the estimates due to analysts' sluggishness.
Author: Wayne R. Guay
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We evaluate the influence of measurement error in analysts' forecasts on the accuracy of implied cost of capital estimates from various implementations of the 'implied cost of capital' approach, and develop corrections for the measurement error. The implied cost of capital approach relies on analysts' short- and long-term earnings forecasts as proxies for the market's expectation of future earnings, and solves for the implied discount rate that equates the present value of the expected future payoffs to the current stock price. We document predictable error in the implied cost of capital estimates resulting from analysts' forecasts that are sluggish with respect to information in past stock returns. We propose two methods to mitigate the influence of sluggish forecasts on the implied cost of capital estimates. These methods substantially improve the ability of the implied cost of capital estimates to explain cross-sectional variation in future stock returns, which is consistent with the corrections being effective in mitigating the error in the estimates due to analysts' sluggishness.
Author: Peter Easton
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981945
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data focuses on estimating the expected rate of return implied by market prices, summary accounting numbers, and forecasts of earnings and dividends. Estimates of the expected rate of return, often used as proxies for the cost of capital, are obtained by inverting accounting-based valuation models. The author describes accounting-based valuation models and discusses how these models have been used, and how they may be used, to obtain estimates of the cost of capital. The practical appeal of accounting-based valuation models is that they focus on the two variables that are commonly at the heart of valuations carried out by equity analysts -- forecasts of earnings and forecasts of earnings growth. The question at the core of this monograph is -- How can these forecasts be used to obtain an estimate of the cost of capital? The author examines the empirical validity of the estimates based on these forecasts and explores ways to improve these estimates. In addition, this monograph details a method for isolating the effect of any factor of interest (such as cross-listing, fraud, disclosure quality, taxes, analyst following, accounting standards, etc.) on the cost of capital. If you are interested in understanding the academic literature on accounting-based estimates of expected rate of return this monograph is for you. Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data provides a foundation for a deeper comprehension of this literature and will give a jump start to those who have an interest in these topics. The key ideas are introduced via examples based on actual forecasts, accounting information, and market prices for listed firms, and the numerical examples are based on sound algebraic relations.
Author: Michalis Makrominas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Implied cost of capital estimates are typically calculated using analysts' forecasts as proxies for the market's earnings expectations. We examine the case where deviations between investors' expectations and analysts' beliefs, as manifested by analysts' recommendations, cause predictable variation in implied cost of capital. We find that stocks recommended by analysts as Buy or Strong Buy have, ceteris paribus, higher implied cost of capital than stocks recommended as Underperform or Sell, and that the effect is more clearly pronounced in stocks that have been downgraded. We attribute the effect to differential expectations between analysts and investors regarding future profitability, rather than differential expectations regarding systematic risk. We demonstrate that adjusting analysts' earnings forecasts in line with the market's earnings expectations largely eliminates the observed variation, indicating that such corrective mechanisms could and should be incorporated in the estimation of implied cost of capital.
Author: William R. Gebhardt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 78
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Book Description
In this study, we propose an alternative technique for estimating the cost of equity capital. Specifically, we use a discounted residual income model to generate a market implied cost-of-capital. We then examine firm characteristics that are systematically related to this estimate of cost-of-capital. We show that a firm's implied cost-of-capital is a function of its industry membership, B/M ratio, forecasted long-term growth rate, and the dispersion in analyst earnings forecasts. Together, these variables explain around 60% of the cross-sectional variation in future (two-year-ahead) implied costs-of-capital. The stability of these long-term relations suggests they can be exploited to estimate future costs-of-capital. We discuss the implications of these findings for capital budgeting, investment decisions, and valuation research.
Author: Luboš Pástor
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital investments
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
We reexamine the time-series relation between the conditional mean and variance of stock market returns. To proxy for the conditional mean return, we use the implied cost of capital, computed using analyst forecasts. The usefulness of this proxy is shown in simulations. In empirical analysis, we construct the time series of the implied cost of capital for the G-7 countries. We find strong support for a positive intertemporal mean-variance relation at both the country level and the world market level. Some of our evidence is consistent with international integration of the G-7 financial markets.
Author: Tjomme O. Rusticus
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
In this paper, I examine the impact of market inefficiency on the properties of implied cost of capital (ICC) estimates. I show that market inefficiency will bias the relation between the ICC estimate and future returns upwards. Utilizing recently developed ICC estimates formed using regression based earnings forecasts, I show that a substantial portion of the returns to an ICC trading strategy stem from mispricing rather than expected returns. The biases induced by mispricing are most severe for firms with significant limits to arbitrage and less severe for firms that are larger, more liquid, and have lower transaction costs, and for ICC estimates based on adjusted analyst forecasts. In addition, I find that controlling for earnings and discount rate news is not an effective control for mispricing, but that controlling for earnings announcement returns is at least partially effective.
Author: Stephanie Krewson-Kelly
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119252768
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
The go-to guide for smart REIT investing The Intelligent REIT Investor is the definitive guide to real estate investment trusts, providing a clear, concise resource for individual investors, financial planners, and analysts—anyone who prioritizes dividend income and risk management as major components to wealth-building. The REIT industry experienced a watershed event when Standard & Poors created a new Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector called Real Estate. Publicly traded equity REITs have been removed from Financials, where they have been classified since their creation in 1960, and have begun trading as their own S&P Sector. This separation from banks and financial institutions has attracted new investors, but REITs require an industry-specific knowledge that is neither intuitive nor readily accessible to newcomers—until now. Using straightforward language and simple example to illustrate important concepts, this book will enable any reader to quickly learn and understand the lexicon and valuation techniques used in REIT investing, providing a wealth of practical resources that streamline the learning process. The discussion explains terminology, metrics, and other key points, while examples illustrate the calculations used to evaluate opportunities. A comprehensive list of publicly-traded REITs provides key reference, giving you access to an important resource most investors and stockbrokers lack. REITs are companies that own or finance commercial rental properties, such as malls and apartment buildings. Despite historically high total returns relative to other investments, such as the Nasdaq or S&P 500 index, most investors are unfamiliar with the REIT industry, and wary of investing without adequate background. This book gets you up to speed on the essentials of REIT investing so you can make more informed—and profitable—decisions. Understand REITs processes, mechanisms, and industry Calculate key metrics to identify suitable companies Access historical performance tables and industry-specific terminology Identify publicly-traded REITs quickly and easily REITs have consistently outperformed many more widely known investments. Over the past 15-year period, for example, REITs returned an average of 11% per year, better than all other asset classes. Since 2009, REITs have enjoyed positive returns; large cap stocks and cash are the only other classes that paralleled that record. Even in 2015, a 'year of fear' related to rising rates, REITs returned 2.4%, beating most all other asset classes. REITs have a long history (over fifty years) of performance, and have entered the big leagues. If you feel like you've been missing out, don't keep missing out. Prepare yourself, and your portfolio, to benefit from the demand for REITs that have followed the creation of a Real Estate GICS sector. The Intelligent REIT Investor gives you the information you need to invest wisely and manage your real estate risk effectively. By maintaining a tactical exposure in the brick and mortar asset class, investors should benefit from the information contained in The Intelligent REIT Investor. Join the REIT world and look forward to owning stocks that will help you to sleep well at night.
Author: Abdul H. Rahman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
Recently, Easton and Sommers (2006) provide evidence of a pervasive upward bias of about 3.5 per cent in implied cost of equity estimators arising from persistent optimistic analysts' forecast of earnings. Deng, Kim and Yeo (2006) derive an estimation procedure that infers the bias in earnings forecasts for different horizons and present evidence that investors, on average, adjust one-year earnings forecasts downwards by about 10 percent. In this paper, we assert that another source of bias arises from a degrees-of-freedom problem and we present a general solution to this problem by deriving an equity valuation model that incorporates a forecast horizon of T periods. We also derive an estimate of the implied cost of equity capital as the solution of a polynomial equation of degree T+1. Hence the common practice (e.g., Gode and Mohanram, 2003; Botosan and Plumlee, 2005) of adjusting the forecast horizon beyond two years and yet retain a quadratic equation implied by the Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth model, may be incorrect. Furthermore, we show that this polynomial equation has a very interesting nested property, where any the polynomial equation of degree n is obtained as a simple algebraic transformation of the polynomial equation of degree n-1.
Author: Jennifer Francis
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981147
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 97
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Book Description
This review lays out a research perspective on earnings quality. We provide an overview of alternative definitions and measures of earnings quality and a discussion of research design choices encountered in earnings quality research. Throughout, we focus on a capital markets setting, as opposed, for example, to a contracting or stewardship setting. Our reason for this choice stems from the view that the capital market uses of accounting information are fundamental, in the sense of providing a basis for other uses, such as stewardship. Because resource allocations are ex ante decisions while contracting/stewardship assessments are ex post evaluations of outcomes, evidence on whether, how and to what degree earnings quality influences capital market resource allocation decisions is fundamental to understanding why and how accounting matters to investors and others, including those charged with stewardship responsibilities. Demonstrating a link between earnings quality and, for example, the costs of equity and debt capital implies a basic economic role in capital allocation decisions for accounting information; this role has only recently been documented in the accounting literature. We focus on how the precision of financial information in capturing one or more underlying valuation-relevant constructs affects the assessment and use of that information by capital market participants. We emphasize that the choice of constructs to be measured is typically contextual. Our main focus is on the precision of earnings, which we view as a summary indicator of the overall quality of financial reporting. Our intent in discussing research that evaluates the capital market effects of earnings quality is both to stimulate further research in this area and to encourage research on related topics, including, for example, the role of earnings quality in contracting and stewardship.
Author: Namho Kang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
Recent research shows that the implied cost of capital (ICC), measured from analyst forecasts and current stock prices, positively predicts returns at the aggregate level. In contrast, there is a strong negative relation between ICC and future returns in the cross-section. We hypothesize that mispricing due to optimistic analyst forecasts and earnings uncertainty renders ICC a poor proxy for expected returns, leading to the negative cross-sectional relation. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that (1) high-ICC firms tend to have more optimistic analyst forecasts; (2) the underperformance of high-ICC firms is pronounced for firms with a high predictable analyst bias; and (3) mispricing due to earnings uncertainty further strengthens the negative relation between ICC and future returns. The findings suggest that not only bias in analyst forecasts but also mispricing may significantly affect the estimation of ICC at the firm level.
