Price and Volume Elasticities of Brazilian Foreign Trade PDF Download
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Languages : en
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Author: Luiz R. de Mello
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Languages : en
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Author: Mr.Claudio Paiva
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451856148
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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This paper provides econometric estimates of trade elasticities for Brazil obtained through cointegration and vector auto regression models and controlling for the effects of exchange rate volatility, capacity utilization, and changes in import tariffs. The results suggest that (i) recent market expectations may have been unduly pessimistic regarding the responsiveness of Brazil's trade flows to the real exchange rate, but (ii) the GDP growth rates targeted by the new government may put downward pressure on the exchange rate and thus render the achievement of official inflation targets considerably more difficult if structural reforms are not implemented.
Author: Mr.Luis Catão
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451854366
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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This paper presents new estimates of export and import equations for Argentina, using a broader set of variables than previous studies and distinguishing between intra- and extra-MERCOSUR trade. It measures the importance of relative price versus income effects in accounting for the higher trade deficit during the 1990s, and examines whether foreign trade elasticities have increased as a result of structural changes in the economy. It finds that the high income elasticity of imports and the responsiveness of exports to changes in world commodity prices, domestic absorption, and economic activity in Brazil have been key determinants of Argentina’s trade balance.
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Languages : pt-BR
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De uma posição deficitária antes da desvalorização de 1999, a balançacomercial brasileira passou a relativo equilíbrio e, a partir de 2002, a superávitsexpressivos, relacionados principalmente ao grande crescimento das exportaçõesem um contexto de apreciação cambial. Avaliando o quantum de exportações eimportações entre janeiro de 1999 e dezembro de 2005, este trabalho procurouavaliar o desempenho do comércio brasileiro a partir de três proposições gerais:(i) outros fatores podem ter sido tão ou mais importante que o câmbio; (ii) hádefasagens na reação do quantum comercializado frente a mudanças nas variáveisexplicativas; (iii) há diferenças de comportamento entre o total e asdesagregações, tanto no longo como no curto prazo. Em relação às exportações, aselasticidades de demanda estimadas para o longo prazo sugeriram que os preçosde exportação e a renda externa tiveram efeito sobre as quantidades, sendo aúltima relevante também no curto prazo. As elasticidades de oferta, estimadaspara o longo prazo, sugeriram que o câmbio, a abertura comercial e os preços deexportação foram determinantes na escolha da firma representativa. Para operíodo analisado, houve evidência de que a demanda foi mais importante do quea oferta, com os efeitos da renda externa e dos preços de exportação sobrepondoseaos da apreciação cambial. Em relação às importações, as elasticidades dedemanda estimadas para o longo prazo indicaram maior importância da absorçãodoméstica e da taxa de câmbio frente a outras variáveis; no curto prazo, a últimaparece ter sido a variável mais relevante.
Author: Ulrich Robert Kohli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 5
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Author: Nagwa Riad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463973101
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 87
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Book Description
Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475553307
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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This paper describes South Africa’s economic development and challenges. South Africa has made considerable economic and social progress over the past two decades, but faces substantial challenges. Global transitions—China’s slowdown and rebalancing, weak commodity prices, and U.S. monetary policy normalization—are taking a heavy toll on South Africa. Growth and employment, which were already low, are faltering and continue to underperform peer countries. Vulnerabilities remain elevated and have increased in the real and fiscal sectors. Boosting growth and job creation, thus reducing extremely high unemployment and inequality, and promoting social transformation remain South Africa’s key challenges.
Author: Ms.Emine Boz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148432885X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
