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Author: Francisco H. G. Ferreira
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
Author: Francisco H. G. Ferreira
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 57
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Francisco H. G. Ferreira
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
What was the impact of Brazil's 1998-99 currency crisis-which resulted in a change of exchange rate regime and a large real devaluation-on the occupational structure of the labor force and the distribution of incomes? Would it have been possible to predict such effects ahead of the crisis? The authors present an integrated macro-micro model of the Brazilian economy in 1998. The model consists of an applied general equilibrium macroeconometric component, connected through a set of linkage aggregate variables to a microeconomic model of household incomes. The authors use this framework to predict the employment and distributional consequences of the 1999 Brazilian currency crisis, based on 1998 household survey data. They then test the predictive performance of the model by comparing its simulated results with the actual household survey data observed in 1999. In addition to the fully integrated macro-micro model, the authors also test the performances of the microeconometric model on its own, and of a "representative household groups" approach. They find that the integrated macro-micro econometric model, while still inaccurate on many dimensions, can actually predict the broad pattern of the incidence of changes in household incomes across the distribution reasonably well, and much better than the alternative approaches. The authors conclude that further experimentation with these tools might be of considerable potential usefulness to policymakers.
Author: Ambar Narayan
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821389815
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 77
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Book Description
Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks will affect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easily available when crises strike. But policy action requires not only understanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifying which households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) the crisis. A popular solution is to extrapolate the welfare impact of a shock from the historical response of income or consumption poverty to changes in output, by estimating an 'elasticity' of poverty to growth. Although this method provides an estimate for the aggregate poverty impact of a macro shock, it has limited value for analysts and policymakers alike. Aggregate numbers are useful to capture the attention of policymakers and the international community, but in the absence of any information on who is affected and to what extent, provide little guidance on what actions need to be taken. This volume outlines a more comprehensive approach to the problem, showcasing a microsimulation model, developed in response to demand from World Bank staff working in countries and country governments in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Starting with the idea of using simple macroeconomic projections as the 'macro linkages' to a micro behavioral model built from household data, the model was conceptualized, refined and tested in a diverse mix of countries: Bangladesh, Philippines, Mexico, Poland and Mongolia. The results fed into country policy dialogue and lending operations of Bank teams, as well as various reports, research papers and briefs.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Brazil
Languages : en
Pages : 80
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Book Description
Author: Francisco H. G. Ferreira
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Brazil
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Author: B. Essama-Nssah
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The importance of distributional issues in policymaking creates a need for empirical tools to assess the social impact of economic shocks and policies. This paper reviews some of the modeling approaches that are currently in use at the World Bank and other international financial institutions. The specification of these models is dictated by the issues at stake, the knowledge about the nature of the process involved, and the availability and reliability of relevant data. Furthermore, shocks and policies have macroeconomic, structural, and distributional implications. This creates interdependence between such policy issues. Finally, the distributional impact of shocks and policies hinges on the heterogeneity of socioeconomic agents with respect to endowments and behavior. In the end, each modeling approach should be judged on how well it handles the interdependence between policy issues and the heterogeneity of the stakeholders, given other constraints.
Author: Sergio Olivieri
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464803854
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 145
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Book Description
Simulating Distributional Impacts of Macro-dynamics: Theory and Practical Applications is a comprehensive guide for analyzing and understanding the effects of macroeconomic shocks on income and consumption distribution, as well as using the ADePT Simulation Module. Since real-time micro data is rarely available, the Simulation Module (part of the ADePT economic analysis software) takes advantage of historical household surveys to estimate how current or proposed macro changes might impact household and individuals welfare. Using examples from different economic and social contexts, the book explains macro-micro linkages in an easy and intuitive way. After developing a sound theoretical foundation, readers are then shown how to explore their own scenarios using the Simulation Module. Step-by-step instructions illustrate data entry and show how to make adjustments using the Module s options. Exercises present how different sections of the simulation process operate independently. This book will be a valuable reference for analysts needing to evaluate the potential impact of structural reforms and to generate projections for hypothetical scenarios. Results created by the Simulation Module will be helpful in informing governmental policymaking.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author: Boniface Essama-Nssah
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 5081013242
Category : Financial crises
Languages : en
Pages : 78
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Book Description
"The importance of distributional issues in policymaking creates a need for empirical tools to assess the social impact of economic shocks and policies. This paper reviews some of the modeling approaches that are currently in use at the World Bank and other international financial institutions. The specification of these models is dictated by the issues at stake, the knowledge about the nature of the process involved, and the availability and reliability of relevant data. Furthermore, shocks and policies have macroeconomic, structural, and distributional implications. This creates interdependence between such policy issues. Finally, the distributional impact of shocks and policies hinges on the heterogeneity of socioeconomic agents with respect to endowments and behavior. In the end, each modeling approach should be judged on how well it handles the interdependence between policy issues and the heterogeneity of the stakeholders, given other constraints. " -- Cover verso.
Author: Daniel S. Hamermesh
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691025872
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 466
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Book Description
In this book Daniel Hamermesh provides the first comprehensive picture of the disparate field of labor demand. The author reviews both the static and dynamic theories of labor demand, and provides evaluative summaries of the available empirical research in these two subject areas. Moreover, he uses both theory and evidence to establish a generalized framework for analyzing the impact of policies such as minimum wages, payroll taxes, job- security measures, unemployment insurance, and others. Covering every aspect of labor demand, this book uses material from a wide range of countries.
