On Two Sources of Unemployment Cycles. Aggregate Disturbances and Sectoral Shifts PDF Download
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Author: Jing Lu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Jing Lu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Ching Lü
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Author: United States. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: David R. Henderson
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780865976658
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 664
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Book Description
Contains 168 alphabetically arranged essays that provide information about topics related to economics, and includes biographical profiles of nearly one hundred noted economists.
Author: Pascal Michaillat
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 382
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This dissertation proposes a model of the labor market that integrates two important sources of unemployment. The first source is a matching friction, which is a friction in matching unemployed workers to recruiting firms. The second source is job rationing, which is a possible shortage of jobs in the economy. To examine how these two sources interact over the business cycle, I decompose unemployment into a component caused by job rationing--rationing unemployment--and another component caused by matching frictions--frictional unemployment. Formally, I define rationing unemployment as the level of unemployment that would prevail if matching frictions disappeared, and frictional unemployment as additional unemployment due to the matching frictions. The main theoretical result of this dissertation is that during recessions rationing unemployment increases, driving the rise in total unemployment, whereas frictional unemployment decreases. Intuitively, in bad times, there are too few jobs, the labor market is slack, recruiting is easy, and matching frictions contribute little to unemployment. I specify a model in which job rationing stems from a small amount of wage rigidity and diminishing marginal returns to labor. In the model calibrated with U.S. data, I find that when unemployment is below 5%, it is only frictional; but when unemployment reaches 9%, frictional unemployment amounts to less than 2% of the labor force, and rationing unemployment to more than 7%. I then show that in recessions, job rationing generates inefficiently high unemployment, which leaves room for labor market policies to improve social welfare. I evaluate three labor market policies--direct employment, placement services, and a wage subsidy--over the business cycle. First, I compute state-dependent fiscal multipliers (the increase in social welfare obtained by spending one dollar on a policy) to determine the effectiveness of these unemployment-reducing policies. I prove theoretically that placement services are more effective in good times than in bad times. The converse is true of direct employment. Intuitively, in bad times, frictional unemployment is low; placement services aim to further reduce this component and are therefore ineffective. The effectiveness of direct employment is a function of how much it crowds private employment out; in bad times, competition for workers is weak and crowding out is limited; thus, this policy is effective. In the calibrated model, wage subsidies are also more effective in bad times than in good times. To conclude, I characterize the optimal mix of policies implemented by a benevolent social planner. The optimal unemployment-reducing policy evolve over the business cycle: its puts more weight on policy instruments reducing matching frictions (placement services) in good times than in bad times; conversely, it puts more weight on policy instruments creating jobs directly (direct employment and a wage subsidy) in bad times than in good times. Intuitively, the optimal unemployment-reducing policy should adapt to the state of the labor market because of the cyclical fluctuations in the sources of unemployment.
Author: Andreas Pollak
Publisher: Mohr Siebeck
ISBN: 9783161493041
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204
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Designing a good unemployment insurance scheme is a delicate matter. In a system with no or little insurance, households may be subject to a high income risk, whereas excessively generous unemployment insurance systems are known to lead to high unemployment rates and are costly both from a fiscal perspective and for society as a whole. Andreas Pollak investigates what an optimal unemployment insurance system would look like, i.e. a system that constitutes the best possible compromise between income security and incentives to work. Using theoretical economic models and complex numerical simulations, he studies the effects of benefit levels and payment durations on unemployment and welfare. As the models allow for considerable heterogeneity of households, including a history-dependent labor productivity, it is possible to analyze how certain policies affect individuals in a specific age, wealth or skill group. The most important aspect of an unemployment insurance system turns out to be the benefits paid to the long-term unemployed. If this parameter is chosen too high, a large number of households may get caught in a long spell of unemployment with little chance of finding work again. Based on the predictions in these models, the so-called "Hartz IV" labor market reform recently adopted in Germany should have highly favorable effects on the unemployment rates and welfare in the long run.
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498356303
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author: William H. Beveridge
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317569784
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 442
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Book Description
Beveridge defined full employment as a state where there are slightly more vacant jobs than there are available workers, or not more than 3% of the total workforce. This book discusses how this goal might be achieved, beginning with the thesis that because individual employers are not capable of creating full employment, it must be the responsibility of the state. Beveridge claimed that the upward pressure on wages, due to the increased bargaining strength of labour, would be eased by rising productivity, and kept in check by a system of wage arbitration. The cooperation of workers would be secured by the common interest in the ideal of full employment. Alternative measures for achieving full employment included Keynesian-style fiscal regulation, direct control of manpower, and state control of the means of production. The impetus behind Beveridge's thinking was social justice and the creation of an ideal new society after the war. The book was written in the context of an economy which would have to transfer from wartime direction to peace time. It was then updated in 1960, following a decade where the average unemployment rate in Britain was in fact nearly 1.5%.
Author: Peter Cappelli
Publisher: University of Pennsylvania Press
ISBN: 1613630131
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 109
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Book Description
Peter Cappelli confronts the myth of the skills gap and provides an actionable path forward to put people back to work. Even in a time of perilously high unemployment, companies contend that they cannot find the employees they need. Pointing to a skills gap, employers argue applicants are simply not qualified; schools aren't preparing students for jobs; the government isn't letting in enough high-skill immigrants; and even when the match is right, prospective employees won't accept jobs at the wages offered. In this powerful and fast-reading book, Peter Cappelli, Wharton management professor and director of Wharton's Center for Human Resources, debunks the arguments and exposes the real reasons good people can't get hired. Drawing on jobs data, anecdotes from all sides of the employer-employee divide, and interviews with jobs professionals, he explores the paradoxical forces bearing down on the American workplace and lays out solutions that can help us break through what has become a crippling employer-employee stand-off. Among the questions he confronts: Is there really a skills gap? To what extent is the hiring process being held hostage by automated software that can crunch thousands of applications an hour? What kind of training could best bridge the gap between employer expectations and applicant realities, and who should foot the bill for it? Are schools really at fault? Named one of HR Magazine's Top 20 Most Influential Thinkers of 2011, Cappelli not only changes the way we think about hiring but points the way forward to rev America's job engine again.
