On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand PDF Download
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Author: Peter Nathan Ireland
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
"Post-1980 U.S. data trace out a stable long-run money demand relationship of Cagan's semi-log form between the M1-income ratio and the nominal interest rate, with an interest semi-elasticity below 2. Integrating under this money demand curve yields estimates of the welfare costs of modest departures from Friedman's zero nominal interest rate rule for the optimum quantity of money that are quite small. The results suggest that the Federal Reserve's current policy, which generates low but still positive rates of inflation, provides an adequate approximation in welfare terms to the alternative of moving all the way to the Friedman rule"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Author: Peter Nathan Ireland
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
"Post-1980 U.S. data trace out a stable long-run money demand relationship of Cagan's semi-log form between the M1-income ratio and the nominal interest rate, with an interest semi-elasticity below 2. Integrating under this money demand curve yields estimates of the welfare costs of modest departures from Friedman's zero nominal interest rate rule for the optimum quantity of money that are quite small. The results suggest that the Federal Reserve's current policy, which generates low but still positive rates of inflation, provides an adequate approximation in welfare terms to the alternative of moving all the way to the Friedman rule"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Author: Aleksander Berentsen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Mr.Howell H. Zee
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451853440
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
This paper provides general equilibrium estimates of the steady-state welfare gains of lowering inflation from a low level to close to price stability, using an overlapping-generations growth model. Money demand is modeled on the basis that real money balances are a factor of production. Assuming a standard Fisher equation modified by the presence of an income tax, it is found that inflation unambiguously reduces capital intensity, drives up the before-tax real rate of return to capital, and unambiguously imposes a life-time welfare cost. This welfare cost is, however, quantitatively very modest (under 0.2 percent of GDP annually) within reasonable ranges of all parameter values.
Author: Neal Maroney
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 9
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Book Description
The cost of the FED maintaining a low target level of inflation is measured by Lucas (2000) and Ireland (2009) as the welfare cost of inflation based on money demand. Their estimates require stability of the money demand function. Ireland finds that money demand in the post-Volcker period is surprisingly stable, but the introduction of new time series datacasts doubt on the stability of money demand and therefore on the applicability of money demand based welfare cost measures of inflation to the post-Volcker period.
Author: Mr.Jose De Gregorio
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145193128X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper examines the welfare effects of mitigating the costs of inflation. In a simple model where money reduces transaction costs, a fall in the costs of inflation is equivalent to financial innovation. This can be caused by paying interest on deposits, indexing money, or “dollarizing.” Results indicate that financial innovation raises welfare in low inflation economies while reducing it in high inflation economies, due to the offsetting indirect effect of higher inflation to finance the budget.
Author: Ben R. Craig
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
This paper extends recent findings in the search-theoretic literature on monetary exchange regarding the welfare costs of inflation. We present first estimates of the welfare cost of inflation using the welfare triangle methodology of Bailey (1958) and Lucas (2000). We then derive a money demand function from the search-theoretic model of Lagos and Wright (2005) and we estimate it from U.S. data over the period 1900-2000. We show that the welfare cost of inflation predicted by the model accords with the welfare-triangle measure when pricing mechanisms are such that buyers appropriate the social marginal benefit of their real balances. For other mechanisms, welfare triangles underestimate the true welfare cost of inflation because of a rent-sharing externality. We also point out other inefficiencies associated with noncompetitive pricing, which matter for estimating the cost of inflation. We then illustrate how endogenous participation decisions can mitigate or exacerbate the cost of inflaion, and we provide calibrated examples in which a deviation from the Friedman rule is optimal. Finally, we discuss distributional effects of inflation.
Author: John Ashworth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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In this paper, we estimate separate UK money demand functions for the household and corporate sectors; and calculate estimates of the welfare cost of inflation. We find that the household sector bears most of the welfare burden which is in sharp contrast to previous (US) evidence. Also, we find aggregate welfare cost estimates that are much smaller than previous (largely US) estimates - sufficiently smaller as to challenge the oft-quoted Lucas finding that shoe leather costs are by no means trivial. For the UK, we find welfare costs no greater than one tenth of a per cent of real income.
Author: Robert E. Lucas (Jr)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Author: Luca Benati
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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We estimate the welfare costs of inflation originating from lack of liquidity satiation - as in Bailey (1956), Friedman (1969), Lucas (2000), and Ireland (2009) - for the U.S., U.K., Canada, and three countries/economic areas (Switzerland, Sweden, and the Euro area) in which interest rates have recently plunged below zero. We pay special attention to (i) the fact that, as shown by recent experience, zero cannot be taken as the effective lower bound (ELB); (ii) the possibility that, as discussed by Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (2000), the money demand curve may become flatter at low interest rates; (iii) the functional form for money demand.; and (iv) what the most relevant proxy for the opportunity cost is. We report three main findings: (1) allowing for an empirically plausible ELB (e.g., -1%) materially increases the welfare costs compared to the standard benchmark of zero; (2) there is nearly no evidence that at low interest rates money demand curves may become flatter: rather, evidence for the U.S. (the country studied by Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (2000)) clearly points towards a steeper curve at low rates; and (3) welfare costs are, in general, non-negligible: this is especially the case for the Euro area, Switzerland, and Sweden, which, for any level of interest rates, demand larger amounts of M1 as a fraction of GDP. For policy purposes the implication is that, ceteris paribus, inflation targets for these countries should be set at a comparatively lower level.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond presents the full text of an article entitled "Zero Inflation and the Friedman Rule: A Welfare Comparison," by Alexander L. Wolman. The article was published in the Fall 1997 issue of "Economic Quarterly." Wolman discusses the reduction of inflation from a moderate level to zero, which entails substantial welfare benefits. Wolman also details money demand and the welfare cost of inflation, and the estimates of a general money demand function.
