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Author: Matteo Barigozzi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
We revisit the usefulness of long-run money demand equations for the European Central Bank. We first conduct a model evaluation exercise by means of a recent time-varying cointegration test. A stable relation for euro area M3 is not rejected by data only when accounting for both a speculative motive, represented by international financial markets, and a precautionary motive, proxied by changes in the unemployment rate. Second, relying on this finding, we propose and estimate a novel time-invariant specification for money demand which allows us (i ) to build a leading indicator of stock market busts and (ii ) to describe the anomalous behavior of M3 in the last decade. Excess liquidity matters for both financial and price stability. -- money demand ; time-varying cointegration ; price-earnings ratios ; unemployment rate ; monetary policy.
Author: Matteo Barigozzi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
We revisit the usefulness of long-run money demand equations for the European Central Bank. We first conduct a model evaluation exercise by means of a recent time-varying cointegration test. A stable relation for euro area M3 is not rejected by data only when accounting for both a speculative motive, represented by international financial markets, and a precautionary motive, proxied by changes in the unemployment rate. Second, relying on this finding, we propose and estimate a novel time-invariant specification for money demand which allows us (i ) to build a leading indicator of stock market busts and (ii ) to describe the anomalous behavior of M3 in the last decade. Excess liquidity matters for both financial and price stability. -- money demand ; time-varying cointegration ; price-earnings ratios ; unemployment rate ; monetary policy.
Author: Matteo Barigozzi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
We employ a recent time-varying cointegration test to revisit the usefulness of long-run money demand equations for the ECB, addressing the issue of their instability by means of a model evaluation exercise. Building on the results, we make a twofold contribution. First, we propose a novel stable money demand equation relying on two crucial factors: a speculative motive, represented by domestic and foreign price-earnings ratios, and a precautionary motive, measured by changes in unemployment. Second, we use the model to derive relevant policy implications for the ECB, since excess liquidity looks more useful for forecasting stock market busts than future inflation. Overall, this evidence points to (i) a possible evolution of the monetary pillar in the direction of pursuing financial stability and (ii) the exclusion of a sudden liquidity-driven inflationary burst after the exit from the prolonged period of unconventional monetary measures.
Author: Mr.Alessandro Calza
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451859034
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The existence of a well-specified and stable relationship between money and prices has long been perceived as a prerequisite for the use of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy. This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about the stability of euro area money demand by constructing an own rate of return on euro area M3 and by analyzing its implications in a standard money demand system. Over the sample period, one cointegrating vector relating real M3, real GDP and the spread between the short-term interest rate and the own rate of M3 can be identified and interpreted as a long-run euro area money demand equation. A dynamic money demand system is subsequently estimated. Standard diagnostics stability tests and out-of-sample forecasts confirm the good statistical performance of the model.
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3662125390
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 266
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Book Description
In 1999 a number of member states of the European Union will adopt a common currency. This change in the monetary system requires that a Eur opean Central Bank is set up and a common monetary policy is pursued. There is general agreement among those countries which are likely to join the common currency that price level stability has to be the ultimate objec tive of monetary po1icy. It is an open issue, however, what kind of policy is best suited for that purpose. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of cen tral importance. Therefore a workshop on Money Demand in Europe was organized at the Humboldt University in Berlin on October 10/11, 1997. This research conference brought together academic and central bank econo mists and econometricians predominantly from Europe to discuss issues on specification, estimation and, in particular, stability of money demand rela tions both in a single equation and in a systems framework. In this volume revised versions of the papers presented and discussed at the workshop are collected. The volume thereby gives an overview of money demand analysis in Europe on the eve of the introduction of the Euro in some European countries. It contributes to the discussion on a suitable monetary policy for the new European Central Bank.
Author: Andreas Jobst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475524471
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.
Author: Otmar Issing
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521788885
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
A non-technical analysis of the monetary policy strategy, institutions and operational procedures of the Eurosystem, first published in 2001.
Author: Otmar Issing
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 344
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Book Description
Author: Christian Müller
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642574009
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 248
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Book Description
The first of January 1999 marked the beginning of a macroeconomic experi ment without precedent in modern history. For the first time eleven European countries agreed to abolish their local currencies in favour of a single one, the Euro. Not surprisingly, the necessary preparatory process has been accompa nied by an intensive discussion about the best way to manage the new Euro currency properly. To spur on that discourse was the principal motivation for this thesis. The introductory chapter attempts to bridge economic and econometric views on money demand analysis. It should help to motivate estimation proce dures and to standardize interpretation techniques, hopefully initiating further discussion in that direction. It intends to make the following chapters more accessible. In this thesis I approach the general subject in two principle ways. In chapter 3 I consider technical issues dealing with time series with shifts in the mean. Two years ago, Helmut Liitkepohl and Pentti Saikkonen asked me to join in on a related project which became the cornerstone of this chapter. I have very much appreciated the highly instructive collaboration with both these scholars.
Author: Zenon Kontolemis G.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
The paper reviews the stability of long-run money demand in the euro area in the light of recent revisions to M3 data. The analysis confirms the existence of a stable long-run money demand, although the estimated equation implies a smaller equilibrium M3 growth than the European Central Bank's reference value of 41⁄2 percent. The stability of long-run money demand does not imply that the market is always in equilibrium. Indeed, it is argued that periods of disequilibrium can be long and adjustment slow. The paper shows that the difference between the low estimated equilibrium growth rate and the actual growth rate for M3 can be explained by a velocity shock, identified here as the sharp fall in equity prices in the last two years. These characteristics of the money market-summarized in the events of the last two years-would call for an alternative approach in the communication of monetary policy developments, essentially putting less emphasis on month-to-month developments in M3.
Author: Shigeyuki Hamori
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812838422
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
The Euro area is an extremely unique and important currency area for two reasons. First, it is the single largest currency area to be created in an industrialized region. In a sense, the Euro area is important as a test case for those contemplating the establishment of new currency areas in East Asia, North America or other industrialized regions. Second, it was established by sovereign states working as peers, who, despite various challenges, peacefully and autonomously decided to create a single currency area. In other words, the Euro area is very different from other currency areas created by countries formerly in colonial relationships with each other. Therefore, for regions emerging from a developing status and forming a currency area, the Euro area could serve as a model case.Marking the 10th anniversary of the creation of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Euro, this invaluable book analyzes the monetary policy of the ECB — the guardian of the Euro — by using recently developed econometric methods. The analysis performed in this book marks a substantial contribution toward understanding the significance of the Euro area as well as the future of the Euro from an international perspective.
