On Modeling Seasonal and Interannual Fluctuations of Arctic Sea Ice PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download On Modeling Seasonal and Interannual Fluctuations of Arctic Sea Ice PDF full book. Access full book title On Modeling Seasonal and Interannual Fluctuations of Arctic Sea Ice by William D. Hibler. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: William D. Hibler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 10
Get Book Here
Book Description
Describes results of first attempt to simulate interannual fluctuations of sea ice over northern hemisphere using dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model. Simulations cover 1973-75 and include Arctic Basin, peripheral seas and marginal ice zone.
Author: William D. Hibler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 10
Get Book Here
Book Description
Describes results of first attempt to simulate interannual fluctuations of sea ice over northern hemisphere using dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model. Simulations cover 1973-75 and include Arctic Basin, peripheral seas and marginal ice zone.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309265290
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 93
Get Book Here
Book Description
Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice. Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012. Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.
Author: Ola M. Johannessen
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030213013
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 575
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book provides in-depth information about the sea ice in the Arctic at scales from paleoenvironmental variability to more contemporary changes during the past and present centuries. The book is based on several decades of research related to sea ice in the Arctic and its variability, sea ice process studies as well as implications of the sea ice variability on human activities. The chapters provide an extensive overview of the research results related to sea ice in the Arctic at paleo-scales to more resent scales of variations as well as projections for changes during the 21st century. The authors have pioneered the satellite remote sensing monitoring of sea ice and used other monitoring data in order to study, monitor and model sea ice and its processes.
Author: Yu Zhang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Ocean currents
Languages : en
Pages : 422
Get Book Here
Book Description
In this dissertation research, a high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully coupled Arctic sea ice-ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was employed to study the seasonal and interannual variability of current and sea ice in the Arctic Ocean over the period 1978-2014. The dissertation consisted of two topics. Topic 1 assessed the performance of Arctic sea ice simulation and examined the sensitivity of the model-produced bias to atmospheric forcing without any assimilation of sea ice. The simulated sea ice was in good agreement with available observed sea ice extent, concentration, drift velocity and thickness, not only in seasonal and interannual variability but also in spatial distribution. Compared with six other Arctic Ocean models, the AO-FVCOM-simulated ice thickness showed a higher correlation coefficient and a smaller residual with observations. Model-produced ice drift speed and direction errors varied with wind speed: the speed and direction errors increased and decreased as the wind speed increased, respectively. Efforts were made to examine the influences of parameterizations of air-ice external and ice-water interfacial stresses on the model-produced bias. The ice drift direction was more sensitive to air-ice drag coefficients and turning angles than the ice drift speed. Increasing or decreasing either 10% in water-ice drag coefficient or 10° in water-ice turning angle did not show a significant influence on the ice drift velocity simulation results; although the sea ice drift speed was more sensitive to these two parameters than the sea ice drift direction. Using the COARE 4.0 derived parameterization of air-water drag coefficient for wind stress did not significantly influence the ice drift velocity simulation. Topic 2 was focused on the variability of current circulation and volume transport through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and their relationship to basin-local atmospheric forcing. The simulated CAA outflow transport was in reasonable agreement with the flux estimated based on measurements across Davis Strait, Nares Strait, Lancaster Sound and Jones Sounds and highly correlated with the along-strait and cross-strait sea surface height (SSH) difference. Compared with the wind forcing, the sea level pressure (SLP) seemed to play a dominant role in establishing the SSH difference in the experiments. Further studies about the impact of wind and SLP on the SSH difference are needed. The change in the simulated CAA outflow transport through Davis Strait showed a negative correlation with the net flux through Fram Strait. This correlation was related to the variation of the spatial distribution and intensity of the slope current over the Beaufort Sea and Greenland shelves.
Author: Eric T. DeWeaver
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118671589
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 431
Get Book Here
Book Description
Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 180. This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.
Author: Martin Vancoppenolle
Publisher: Presses univ. de Louvain
ISBN: 2874631132
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 229
Get Book Here
Book Description
Ice formed from seawater, called sea ice, is both an important actor in and a sensitive indicator of climate change. Covering 7% of the World Ocean, sea ice damps the atmosphere-ocean exchanges of heat, radiation and momentum in polar regions. It also affects the oceanic circulation at a global scale. Recent satellite and submarine observations systems indicate a sharp decrease in the extent and volume of Arctic sea ice over the last 30 years. In addition, climate models project drastic sea ice reductions for the next century, in both hemispheres, with potentially large consequences on climate and ecosystems. Contrary to what is commonly believed, sea ice retains about 25% of the oceanic salt when it forms. As salt cannot lock in the ice crystalline lattice, it accumulates in liquid inclusions of salty water (brine). Under a temperature change, the inclusions freeze or melt and release or absorb huge amounts of latent heat. This affects heat transfer through and storage in sea ice, which may affect the mass balance of sea ice at a global scale. This is the central hypothesis of this work. In order to address this problem, the author develops two sea ice models and assesses their ability to simulate the recent evolution of the sea ice mass balance. Then, the physics of brine uptake and drainage are included in the models and sea ice desalination is investigated. Finally, the impact of sea ice salinity variations on the global sea ice mass balance is studied. The roles of sea ice thermal properties, of ice-ocean salt / fresh water fluxes and of oceanic feedbacks are evaluated. The new salinity module improves the simulation of ice and ocean characteristics compared to observations. Including salinity variations increases ice growth, reduces vertical mixing in the ocean and the ocean-to-ice heat flux. In conclusion, salinity variations should be included in future sea ice models used for climate projections.
Author: Wouter Lefebvre
Publisher: Presses univ. de Louvain
ISBN: 9782874630958
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 254
Get Book Here
Book Description
The interannual variability of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean and its evolution projected for the end of the 21st century are investigated using observations and different types of models. First of all, none of the known atmospheric modes of variabilit
Author: David N. Thomas
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470756926
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 419
Get Book Here
Book Description
Sea ice, which covers up to 7% of the planet’s surface, is a major component of the world’s oceans, partly driving ocean circulation and global climate patterns. It provides a habitat for a rich diversity of marine organisms, and is an extremely valuable source of information in studies of global climate change and the evolution of present day life forms. Increasingly sea ice is being used as a proxy for extraterrestrial ice covered systems. Sea Ice provides a comprehensive review of our current available knowledge of polar pack ice, the study of which is severely constrained by the logistic difficulties of working in such harsh and remote regions of the earth. The book’s editors, Drs Thomas and Dieckmann have drawn together an impressive group of international contributing authors, providing a well-edited and integrated volume, which will stand for many years as the standard work on the subject. Contents of the book include details of the growth, microstructure and properties of sea ice, large-scale variations in thickness and characteristics, its primary production, micro-and macrobiology, sea ice as a habitat for birds and mammals, sea ice biogeochemistry, particulate flux, and the distribution and significance of palaeo sea ice. Sea Ice is an essential purchase for oceanographers and marine scientists, environmental scientists, biologists, geochemists and geologists. All those involved in the study of global climate change will find this book to contain a wealth of important information. All libraries in universities and research establishments where these subjects are studied and taught will need multiple copies on their shelves. David Thomas is at the School of Ocean Sciences, University of Wales, Bangor, UK. Gerhard Dieckmann is at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Author: J. Shukla
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642769608
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 344
Get Book Here
Book Description
It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction.
Author: W. Vlot
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 45
Get Book Here
Book Description
In the Arctic region, sea ice area has rapidly declined for several decades. The strongest impacts are visible during the summer when sea ice area reaches its minimum. The demand for forecasts on a seasonal to interannual time scale is increasing, while climate models are operating on smaller temporal and spatial resolutions. This study is an analysis of the variability and predictability of Arctic sea ice by validating the model bias and drift using three different simulations from EC Earth, with the initialisation-months May, August and November. We compare these simulations with observations and ERA-Interim reanalyses. We also focus on explaining the model biases and the drift with certain simulated physical model behaviour.
