Author: Jörg Breitung
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783865580979
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
ISBN: 0195398645
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 732

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Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199338329
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 285

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Book Description
Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.

Author: El Bachir Boukherouaa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589063953
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35

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This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.

Author: Vladimir Kuzin
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783865585097
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484397010
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39

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The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.

Author: United Nations Publications
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789211616040
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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The Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys provides best practices and harmonized principles on how to conduct economic tendency survey from sample selection, questionnaire design, survey questions, survey execution, to data processing and dissemination. It also provides examples of uses of these surveys, for example, for composite tendency indicators. These surveys provide qualitative information that cannot be collected using other quantitative statistical methods. They also serve as an integral part of an early warning system because they provide information about the occurrence and timing of upturns and downturns of the economy.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616350598
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 242

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The April 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the global prospects for economic growth in the face of policy challenges that remain unaddressed and new challenges now coming to the fore.The recovery is gaining strength, but unemployment remains high in advanced economies, and new macroeconomic risks are building in emerging market economies. In advanced economies, the handoff from public to private demand is advancing, reducing concerns that diminishing fiscal policy support might cause a “double-dip” recession. Financial conditions continue to improve, although they remain unusually fragile. In many emerging market economies, demand is robust and overheating is a growing policy concern. Rising food and commodities prices present new risks to the global economy. Two chapters directly explore these new challenges. Chapter 3 reviews the potential impact of oil scarcity on global growth, and Chapter 4 explores the potential response of international capital flows to changes in the global macroeconomic environment.

Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464809623
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 176

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In 2013, the World Bank Group announced two goals that would guide its operations worldwide. First is the eradication of chronic extreme poverty bringing the number of extremely poor people, defined as those living on less than 1.25 purchasing power parity (PPP)†“adjusted dollars a day, to less than 3 percent of the world’s population by 2030.The second is the boosting of shared prosperity, defined as promoting the growth of per capita real income of the poorest 40 percent of the population in each country. In 2015, United Nations member nations agreed in New York to a set of post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the first and foremost of which is the eradication of extreme poverty everywhere, in all its forms. Both the language and the spirit of the SDG objective reflect the growing acceptance of the idea that poverty is a multidimensional concept that reflects multiple deprivations in various aspects of well-being. That said, there is much less agreement on the best ways in which those deprivations should be measured, and on whether or how information on them should be aggregated. Monitoring Global Poverty: Report of the Commission on Global Poverty advises the World Bank on the measurement and monitoring of global poverty in two areas: What should be the interpretation of the definition of extreme poverty, set in 2015 in PPP-adjusted dollars a day per person? What choices should the Bank make regarding complementary monetary and nonmonetary poverty measures to be tracked and made available to policy makers? The World Bank plays an important role in shaping the global debate on combating poverty, and the indicators and data that the Bank collates and makes available shape opinion and actual policies in client countries, and, to a certain extent, in all countries. How we answer the above questions can therefore have a major influence on the global economy.

Author: Economic and Social Research Institute
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Industries
Languages : en
Pages : 542

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