Author: Bong-Han Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We find nonlinear mean-reverting tendencies in Southeast Asian currencies by applying the newly developed nonlinear unit root test by Park and Shintani (2005). First, with the U.S. dollar as the numeraire currency, we find that 63% of the real exchange rates of Southeast Asian currencies turn out to be stationary. However, with the Japanese yen as the numeraire currency, we find no evidence in favor of purchasing power parity for most currencies in Southeast Asia, except for the Korean won and Taiwanese dollar. These findings imply that Southeast Asian currencies may not form a yen-dominated Asian exchange rate system. Second, when the dollar -based real exchange rates of Southeast Asian countries are nonlinear mean-reverting, we find that the mean-reverting process could be well described by the ESTAR model, rather than the DTAR or DLSTAR model. Our results are reinforced by impulse response function and forecasting analysis.
Author: Aleth Yenko
Publisher: Institute of Southeast Asian
ISBN: 9971902346
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
A theoretical framework, based on existing literature, which could serve as a guide for developing countries in choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime in the present system of generalized floating. The exchange rate regimes of the ASEAN countries are then evaluated in terms of the framework.
Author: Pradumna Bickram Rana
Publisher: Institute of Southeast Asian
ISBN: 9971902192
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
This paper examines whether exchange rate risk (defined as the variety of nominal and price-adjusted import-weighed exchange rates) has increased in the present system of generalized floating for eight Asian developing countries. The first major finding is that the samples of import-weighted exchange rates conform better to non-normal stable Paretian distributions than to normal ones; sample standard deviation is therefore an erratic and misleading measure of variability. The second is that the scale and Gini's mean difference measures of variability indicate that exchange rate risk has increased substantially - in nominal terms more than in real terms and in the short run more than in the long run.
Author: Robert Sollis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics, Mathematical
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
Author: H. L. Leon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences in magnitudes, frequencies, and durations of the deviations of exchange rates from fixed and time-varying thresholds, both between over-appreciations and over-depreciations and between developed and developing countries. In particular, the average cumulative sum of deviations during periods when exchange rates are below forecasts is twice that of the sum during periods of over-appreciation, and is larger for developing than for advanced countries.
Author: Robert V. Roosa
Publisher: Institute of Southeast Asian
ISBN: 9971902591
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
This paper focuses on the risks accompanying a vibrant and expanding monetary system. It views in broad terms an apparent gap in economic analysis that seems to prevent any single answer to the paradox that a highly sophisticated payments system also seems to generate economic instability. The volatile behaviour of foreign exchange markets is examined, and operational possibilities for attempting to minimize the often conflicting differences between movements of capital and trade are put forward.
Author: Frederique Bec
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Recent studies on general equilibrium models with transaction costs show that the dynamics of the real exchange rate are necessarily nonlinear. Our contribution to the literature on nonlinear price adjustment mechanisms is threefold. First, we model the real exchange rate by a Multi-Regime Logistic Smooth Transition AutoRegression (MR-LSTAR), allowing for both ESTAR-type and SETAR-type dynamics. This choice is motivated by the fact that even the theoretical models, which predict a smooth behavior for the real exchange rate, do not rule out the possibility of a discontinuous adjustment as a limit case. Second, we propose two classes of unit-root tests against this MR-LSTAR alternative, based respectively on the likelihood and on an auxiliary model. Their asymptotic distributions are derived analytically. Third, when applied to 28 bilateral real exchange rates, our tests reject the null hypothesis of a unit root for eleven series bringing evidence in favor of the purchasing power parity.
Author: Southeast Asia Development Advisory Group
Publisher: Lexington, Mass : Lexington Books
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 146
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Book Description
Author: Menzie Chinn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : East Asia
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Author: Menzie David Chinn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : East Asia
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
The evidence for a productivity-based explanation for real exchange rate behavior of East Asian currencies is examined. Using sectoral output and employment data, relative prices and relative productivities are calculated for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. Time series regressions of the real exchange rate on relative prices indicate a role for relative prices for Indonesia, Japan and Korea. When examining real exchange rates and relative productivity ratios, one finds a relationship for Japan, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Only when augmenting the regressions with real oil prices are significant relationships obtained for Indonesia and Korea. Panel regression results are slightly more supportive of a relative price view of real exchange rates. However, the panel regressions incorporating productivity variables, as well as other demand side factors, are less encouraging, except for a small subset of countries (Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines). Surprisingly, government spending does not appear to be a determinant of real exchange rates in the region.
