Modelling Water Quality of the Pike River Watershed Under Four Climate Change Scenarios PDF Download
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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The impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads to northern Lake Champlain, were predicted for the time horizon 2041-2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modified to suit Québec's agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climates simulated with the Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. SWAT was independently calibrated for the period 2001-2003, and then validated for the periods of 2004-2006 and 1980-2000, before inputting the climate scenarios. Potential mean changes predicted by these scenarios were then analysed for the evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, stream flow, sediment yields, and total phosphorus and nitrogen.After calibration, mean annual evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface flow as well as water percolation were found to correspond satisfactorily with the hydrology of the basin. Likewise, monthly predicted stream flow compared reasonably well with observed stream flow. The performance of SWAT in simulating sediment and nutrient yields was clearly improved after calibration but did not always reach standards of acceptability. As for climate change results, only one scenario predicted a significant increase in mean annual stream flow and nutrient loadings. However, when considering shorter time spans, simulations predicted significant changes including a winter stream flow two to three times greater than current stream flow and earlier spring floods. The identified causes are the early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures. In contrast, peak flows in April, as well as summer stream flow, appear to decrease but not always significantly. Nutrient
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Languages : en
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Book Description
The impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads to northern Lake Champlain, were predicted for the time horizon 2041-2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modified to suit Québec's agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climates simulated with the Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. SWAT was independently calibrated for the period 2001-2003, and then validated for the periods of 2004-2006 and 1980-2000, before inputting the climate scenarios. Potential mean changes predicted by these scenarios were then analysed for the evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, stream flow, sediment yields, and total phosphorus and nitrogen.After calibration, mean annual evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface flow as well as water percolation were found to correspond satisfactorily with the hydrology of the basin. Likewise, monthly predicted stream flow compared reasonably well with observed stream flow. The performance of SWAT in simulating sediment and nutrient yields was clearly improved after calibration but did not always reach standards of acceptability. As for climate change results, only one scenario predicted a significant increase in mean annual stream flow and nutrient loadings. However, when considering shorter time spans, simulations predicted significant changes including a winter stream flow two to three times greater than current stream flow and earlier spring floods. The identified causes are the early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures. In contrast, peak flows in April, as well as summer stream flow, appear to decrease but not always significantly. Nutrient
Author: Colline Gombault
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Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
"The impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads to northern Lake Champlain, were predicted for the time horizon 2041-2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modified to suit Québec's agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climates simulated with the Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. SWAT was independently calibrated for the period 2001-2003, and then validated for the periods of 2004-2006 and 1980-2000, before inputting the climate scenarios. Potential mean changes predicted by these scenarios were then analysed for the evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, stream flow, sediment yields, and total phosphorus and nitrogen.After calibration, mean annual evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface flow as well as water percolation were found to correspond satisfactorily with the hydrology of the basin. Likewise, monthly predicted stream flow compared reasonably well with observed stream flow. The performance of SWAT in simulating sediment and nutrient yields was clearly improved after calibration but did not always reach standards of acceptability. As for climate change results, only one scenario predicted a significant increase in mean annual stream flow and nutrient loadings. However, when considering shorter time spans, simulations predicted significant changes including a winter stream flow two to three times greater than current stream flow and earlier spring floods. The identified causes are the early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures. In contrast, peak flows in April, as well as summer stream flow, appear to decrease but not always significantly. Nutrient delivery to the lake significantly increased in winter and occurred earlier in the year as a consequence of hydrological changes. A three- to four-fold increase in subsurface flow was also observed in winter which may increase nutrient losses through this pathway." --
Author: Karim Abbaspour
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 3038428159
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 501
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Book Description
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Integrated Soil and Water Management: Selected Papers from 2016 International SWAT Conference" that was published in Water
Author: Robert Baidoc
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Watershed models are an important tool in regional planning and conservation efforts. They can provide valuable insight into the potential impacts of different land use changes and future climate change scenarios on water resources, which can lead to better, more informed decision making. Climate impacts, in particular, add a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies as the hydrological cycle is intimately linked with changes in atmospheric temperatures. The main objective of this study is to investigate the extent of long-term climate change on streamflow and stream temperature within an agriculturally defined watershed in Northern Ontario. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was utilized to provide a better understanding of how hydrological processes in the Slate River Watershed will alter in response to long-term climate change scenarios. The SWAT model is a distributed/semi-distributed physically-based continuous model, developed by the USDA for the management of agricultural watersheds, and is currently one of the most popular watershed-based models used in climate change analysis of snowmelt dominated watersheds. Historic flow data was compared to a discharge model that reflected four climate models driven by SRES A1B and A2 through the middle and end of the century. Hydrology modelling was enhanced with stream temperature analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of the extent of changing climate regimes on the Slate River. A linear regression approach representing a positive relationship between stream temperature and air temperature was used to determine the thermal classification of the Slate River. Our results indicated that the Slate River was well within the warm-water character regime. Unusual high stream temperatures were recorded at mid- August; these were accompanied by low water levels and a lack of riparian vegetative cover at the recording site, providing a possible explanation for such temperature anomalies. The results of the flow discharge modelling supported our hypothesis that tributaries within our ecosystem would experience increasing water stress in a warming climate as the average total discharge from the Slate River decreased in both climate scenarios at the middle and end of the century. Although the lack of accurate subsurface soil data within the study region prevented our discharge model from quantifying the changes in stream discharge, the strong correlation between the observed and simulated flow data as reflected by a 0.92 r2 statistic gave us confidence that discharge from the Slate River will continue to follow a decreasing trend as climate change persists into the future. This study aims to support the future endeavours of hydrologic modelling of watersheds in Northern Ontario by illustrating the current capabilities and limits of climate change analysis studies within this region.
Author: Mikołaj Piniewski
Publisher: diplom.de
ISBN: 3954897741
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 206
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Book Description
Globally, freshwater ecosystems are considered to be under severe threat from human pressure and climate change (Vörösmarty et al., 2010). Malmqvist and Rundle (2002) suggest that running water is the most impacted upon ecosystem on Earth due to being surrounded by dense human settlements and exploited for domestic and industrial water supply, irrigation, electricity generation and waste disposal. For example, the progressive over-exploitation of surface water resources for irrigation and urban uses in the Colorado River Basin has resulted most years in no runoff reaching the river’s delta (Gleick, 2003) [...]. Hereafter, natural and anthropogenic driving forces will be referred to as global and regional driving forces, respectively. The future effects of these forces up to the 2050s will be assessed in quantitative scenarios implemented in a hydrological model. It is believed that using this nomenclature (i.e. global and regional instead of natural and anthropogenic) better reflects considered environmental stressors, since global-scale driving forces will include not only climatic change but also changes in CO2, atmospheric carbon dioxide and plant physiological parameters, whereas regional-scale driving forces will include changes in land use, agriculture development and agricultural water management. Hence, the difference is that the first group of driving forces acts globally and independently on the study area, whereas the second group includes factors that are specific to the study area. Furthermore, in order to expand on the title of this thesis, impacts in the present study will be assessed not only on the flow regime as such, but also on its ecological functions, i.e. on the environmental flow regime. This is motivated mainly by the semi-natural character of the study area, that is unique in Poland and in Europe, but it also underlines the novelty of this thesis, as going beyond the pure impacts on the flow regime in a scenario-modelling framework is rare in hydrological science, if achieved at all.
Author: C. Fai Fung
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1444348175
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 215
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Book Description
The quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and water resources management requires knowledge of climate, hydro(geo)logical and water resources models, and particularly the relationships between each of them. This book brings together world experts on each of these aspects, distilling each complex topic into concise and easy to understand chapters, in which both the uses and limitations of modelling are explored. The book concludes with a set of case studies using real-life examples to illustrate the steps required and the problems that can be faced in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on water resource systems. For students, scientists, engineers and decision-makers alike, this book provides an invaluable and critical look at the information that is provided by climate models, and the ways it is used in modelling water systems. A key focus is the exploration of how uncertainties may accrue at each stage of an impacts assessment, and the reliability of the resulting information. The book is a practical guide to understanding the opportunities and pitfalls in the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in the water resource sector.
Author: Dennis Colautti
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 117
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Book Description
A numerical modelling analysis of climate change's precipitation effects on the long-term, averaged surface and subsurface hydrology of the Grand River Watershed (GRW) was undertaken in order to assess possible areas of concern for decision makers in the water management sector. The physically-based, fully-integrated and variably-saturated 3-D surface-subsurface numerical simulator, HydroGeoSphere, was used to drive five mid-21st century climate change scenarios, developed from multiple general circulation models. Calibration involved altering measured and literature-derived hydraulic conductivity and precipitation distribution estimates, resulting in very good matching between observed and simulated long-term average surface flow at all gauge stations. Subsurface head results, too, matched observed heads quite well, though groundwater linkage to neighbouring watersheds was not included. When groundwater linkage to neighbouring watersheds was allowed, via regional Dirichlet boundary conditions used in a parent study, groundwater throughput was deemed to be unrealistic. All but one of the climate change scenarios caused an increase in both river discharge and water table elevation, with the greatest climate perturbations causing the greatest increases. For Scenario 1 (5% less precipitation than the 1960-to-1999 average), percentage discharge changes averaged -15% over all gauge stations. For the other scenarios (more precipitation than average), the inter-scenario discharge response ranged from approximately +12% to +59%. In general the range of inter-subcatchment response was greater than was the range for intra-subcatchment response; the greatest percentage response was consistently in the Speed River subcatchment, while the least was consistently in the Nith and Conestogo subcatchments. The exception was the application of less-than-average precipitation to the Grand River, whose gauge stations reported percentage changes in discharge that varied more substantially from one another. Subsurface hydrology reacted to the climate change scenarios in much the same manner as did the surface hydrology, with all climate change scenarios associated with a precipitation increase unsurprisingly resulting in higher total hydraulic heads throughout the entire domain. Specifically, the minimum and maximum mean head increases among the climate change scenarios were 0.41 m and 1.25 m respectively, while the only decrease was an average of 0.55 m. Similarly, the depth from the ground surface to the water table decreased in most scenarios, the maximum water table rise being 1.08 m and the minimum 0.36 m. When precipitation was allowed to decrease by 5% relative to the long-term average, the average water table elevation decreased by 0.48 m. However the water table's pattern of high and low points remained very much the same among all climate change scenarios, suggesting that basin-wide groundwater flow patterns may not be among the hydrological measures most sensitive to climate change. Groundwater recharge, like almost all other components of the water budget, changed in linear proportion to the climate forcing and in agreement with GRW recharge estimates developed by others. Evapotranspiration, which met potential evapotranspiration in all scenarios due to the constant application of precipitation, was the only element of the water budget that did not increase, even though the water table was elevated closer to the rooting zone by most of the climate scenarios. On a smaller scale, changes in flow patterns may well be expected, given that zones of infiltration were observed to intensify with most of the climate forcing.
Author: M. Monirul Qader Mirza
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0203020774
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 347
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Book Description
This book addresses the most pressing water resource issues in South Asia, particularly in relation to climate change and variability. This is a region characterised by abundant water during the monsoon, when devastating floods occur, and by scarcity of water and droughts during the dry period. These extreme events often cause substantial damage to
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Soil conservation
Languages : en
Pages : 818
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Book Description
Vol. 25, no. 1 contains the society's Lincoln Chapter's Resource conservation glossary.
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Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
This volume in the 'Environment Agency Science Report' series features case studies which demonstrate the added value of using large climate model ensembles when assessing climate change impacts on water resources and river ecology and exploring possible adaptation pathways.
