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Author: Olusanya E. Olubusoye
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
Author: Olusanya E. Olubusoye
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Gary G. Moser
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145184980X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
This paper provides a selective review of the literature on the determinants of inflation in Nigeria, analyzes the dominant factors influencing inflation, presents the empirical results of a reduced-form elasticities model, and discusses the policy implications of the empirical results. The results of this analysis confirm the basic findings of earlier studies, namely that monetary expansion, driven mainly by expansionary fiscal policies, explains to a large degree the inflationary process in Nigeria. Other important factors are the devaluation of the naira and agroclimatic conditions. With respect to the depreciation of the naira, it was found that concurrent fiscal and monetary policies had a major influence on its impact on inflation. Given the considerable role of food commodities in the CPI, agroclimatic conditions (rainfall) were found to play a significant role in overall movements in prices and should be fully taken into consideration in any analysis of the inflationary process in Nigeria.
Author: Festus O. Egwaikhide
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Budget deficits
Languages : en
Pages : 62
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Book Description
Author: Louis Kuijs
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451981732
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper presents a macroeconomic model of the Nigerian economy. The long-run relationships pertaining to the markets for money, foreign exchange, and (non-oil) output are estimated. Subsequently, dynamic equations are estimated for the price level, the real exchange rate, and output. The results are instrumental in explaining the dramatic developments on the foreign exchange market during 1983-86 and 1992-94, the secular depreciation of the real exchange rate since 1985, and the rise and fall of inflation during 1991-97. The methodology could usefully be applied to other economies whose exports are insensitive to exchange rate movements (e.g., other oil-based economies).
Author: Paul T. Iorember
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Book Description
The study looked into the stochastic properties of CPI-inflation rate for Nigeria from 1995 Q1 to 2016 Q4. The study employed an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average and a general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARFIMA-GARCH) methodology as well as ADF/KPSS to investigate the long-memory properties of CPI-Inflation for Nigeria. The study found that CPI-inflation in Nigeria is shock dissipating at a geometric rate (fast mean reverting ability). The ARFIMA-GARCH process showed that CPI inflation in Nigeria is a heteroskedastic fractionally integrated process with quick mean reverting ability. The study therefore concludes that shocks to CPI-inflation in Nigeria such as sudden hikes in prices of energy products will not cause a permanent change in general price level but will eventually return to its mean state, and therefore having an implication for the Inflation-Unemployment tradeoff of the Philips curve.
Author: Austin N. Nosike
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 10
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Book Description
This study makes a modest contribution to the debates by empirically analyzing the relationship between Nigeria inflation trend and investment growth (gross fixed capital formation), using time series data from 1980 to 2015, obtained from the World Economic Outlook (WEO) database of the IMF and World Development Indicators (World Data Bank Online Version). It employs the Engle-Granger two step modeling (EGM) procedure to co-integration based on unrestricted Error Correction Model and Pair wise Granger Causality tests. From the analysis, my findings indicate that inflation and gross fixed capital formation are cointegrated in this study. The error correction term of -0.76 is negatively signed and also significant at all conventional level indicating that when the variables wonder away from equilibrium following an exogenous shock, 76 percent of the disequilibrium is corrected after one year. Based on the result of granger causality, the paper concludes that causality exist between the two variables used in this study. Therefore, the policy implication of these findings is that government should adopt various policy measures (both monetary and fiscal) to reduce inflation to an acceptable level because the current inflationary trend in Nigeria is negatively affecting the realization of creativity and manufacturing of commodities with international competitive advantage.
Author: Abdulrasheed Zubair
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This paper uses the impulse response from an estimated structural autoregressive model of the inflation process to estimate the dynamic exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices for Nigeria, using quarterly data for the period 1986-2010. The results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete, low and fairly slow. On impact, for instance, the elasticity of inflation to exchange rate changes is about 0.02, and it takes about eight quarters to reach its full-impact of only 0.26. We argue that given the large share of imports in Nigeria's consumption basket, this surprisingly low pass-through indicates that importers practice the so-called pricing-to-market strategy of price setting for the Nigerian market. The variance decomposition analysis suggests that money supply has contributed more to Nigeria's inflation process relative to the exchange rate. This suggests that policy makers must beep up efforts at achieving monetary stability.
Author: Ikechukwu Kelikume
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
A major concern of entrepreneurs and monetary authorities in Nigeria in the past decades was successful prediction general price level movements. The results allow successful planning on the part of monetary authorities and continued profit drive on the part of entrepreneurs and investors. This study uses a univariate model in the form of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model developed by Box and Jenkins and multivariate time series model in the form of Vector Autoregressive model to forecast inflation for Nigeria. This paper use changes in monthly consumer price index obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Central bank of Nigeria over the period 2003 to 2012 to predict movements in the general price level. Based on different diagnostic and evaluation criteria, the best forecasting model for predicting inflation in Nigeria is identified. The results will enable policy makers and businesses to track the performance and stability of key macroeconomic indicators using the forecasted inflation.
Author: Perekunah B. Eregha
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The study applies a BEKK GARCH-M model to examine the effect of uncertainty on the levels of inflation and output growth in Nigeria. The results suggest a significant positive effect of inflation uncertainty on the level of inflation, supporting the Cukierman and Meltzer (1986) hypothesis. In addition, uncertainty about inflation is found to be detrimental to output growth, supporting the Friedman’s (1977) hypothesis of a negative effect of inflation uncertainty on output growth. Uncertainty about growth does not have a significant effect on both the levels of inflation and output growth. The evidence in this study suggests that Nigeria should put in place policies minimizing inflation uncertainty to avoid its adverse effects on the economy. In addition, the independence relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in Nigeria suggest that they can be treated separately as suggested by business cycle models.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
