Author: Adam Lauz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
" Voting and preference aggregation systems have been used by people for centuries as tools for group decision-making in settings as diverse as politics and entertainment. Computers have assumed an increasingly significant role as platforms and mediators for preference aggregation, such as scheduling applications aggregating search results from the web and collaborative filtering, and more recently as autonomous voters in multi-agent systems. People's behavior is known to deviate from models that were traditionally used to analyze voting systems. The main goal of this thesis is to model and predict how people will vote in strategic situations which vary the number of voters, the number of candidates, and voters' preferences using machine learning approach. These models can be easily integrated into real systems to improve their voting components to become better and smarter. We use new insights we gather from machine learning methods such as feature importance analysis to modify the models and capture the voting behaviors more accurately. We engineer new features in our models that take into account cognitive biases that affect the behavior of bounded rational voters such as leader-bias. Our results show that the engineered features that describe the voters' properties and not only the voting condition, are significantly effective for building vote prediction models." -- abstract.
Author: Roy Fairstein
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
"Despite the prevalence of voting systems in the real world there is no consensus among researchers of how people vote strategically, even in simple voting settings. This thesis addresses this gap by comparing different approaches that have been used to model strategic voting, including expected utility maximization, heuristic decision-making, and bounded rationality models. The models are applied to data collected from hundreds of people in controlled voting experiments, where people vote after observing non-binding poll information. We introduce a new voting model, the Attainability-Utility (AU) heuristic,which weighs the popularity of a candidate according to the poll, with the utility of the candidate to the voter. We argue that the AU model is cognitively plausible, and show that it is able to predict people's voting behavior significantly better than other models from the literature. It was almost at par with (and sometimes better than) a machine learning algorithm that uses substantially more information. Our results provide new insights into the strategic considerations of voters, that undermine the prevalentassumptions of much theoretical work in social choice." -- abstract.
Author: John H Aldrich
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 0472124307
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
Voters do not always choose their preferred candidate on election day. Often they cast their ballots to prevent a particular outcome, as when their own preferred candidate has no hope of winning and they want to prevent another, undesirable candidate’s victory; or, they vote to promote a single-party majority in parliamentary systems, when their own candidate is from a party that has no hope of winning. In their thought-provoking book The Many Faces of Strategic Voting, Laura B. Stephenson, John H. Aldrich, and André Blais first provide a conceptual framework for understanding why people vote strategically, and what the differences are between sincere and strategic voting behaviors. Expert contributors then explore the many facets of strategic voting through case studies in Great Britain, Spain, Canada, Japan, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, and the European Union.
Author: Jan E. Leighley
Publisher: Oxford University Press (UK)
ISBN: 0199604517
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 796
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Book Description
The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics are the essential guide to the study of American political life in the 21st Century. With engaging contributions from the major figures in the field The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior provides the key point of reference for anyone working in American Politics today
Author: Reshef Liu
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031015797
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 149
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Book Description
Social choice theory deals with aggregating the preferences of multiple individuals regarding several available alternatives, a situation colloquially known as voting. There are many different voting rules in use and even more in the literature, owing to the various considerations such an aggregation method should take into account. The analysis of voting scenarios becomes particularly challenging in the presence of strategic voters, that is, voters that misreport their true preferences in an attempt to obtain a more favorable outcome. In a world that is tightly connected by the Internet, where multiple groups with complex incentives make frequent joint decisions, the interest in strategic voting exceeds the scope of political science and is a focus of research in economics, game theory, sociology, mathematics, and computer science. The book has two parts. The first part asks "are there voting rules that are truthful?" in the sense that all voters have an incentive to report their true preferences. The seminal Gibbard-Satterthwaite theorem excludes the existence of such voting rules under certain requirements. From this starting point, we survey both extensions of the theorem and various conditions under which truthful voting is made possible (such as restricted preference domains). We also explore the connections with other problems of mechanism design such as locating a facility that serves multiple users. In the second part, we ask "what would be the outcome when voters do vote strategically?" rather than trying to prevent such behavior. We overview various game-theoretic models and equilibrium concepts from the literature, demonstrate how they apply to voting games, and discuss their implications on social welfare. We conclude with a brief survey of empirical and experimental findings that could play a key role in future development of game theoretic voting models.
Author: Jonathan Bendor
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 069113507X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 268
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Book Description
Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. This title provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors - politicians as well as voters - are only boundedly rational.
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262039370
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497
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Book Description
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Author: Ariel Rosenfeld
Publisher: Morgan & Claypool Publishers
ISBN: 1681732750
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 152
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Book Description
Human decision-making often transcends our formal models of "rationality." Designing intelligent agents that interact proficiently with people necessitates the modeling of human behavior and the prediction of their decisions. In this book, we explore the task of automatically predicting human decision-making and its use in designing intelligent human-aware automated computer systems of varying natures—from purely conflicting interaction settings (e.g., security and games) to fully cooperative interaction settings (e.g., autonomous driving and personal robotic assistants). We explore the techniques, algorithms, and empirical methodologies for meeting the challenges that arise from the above tasks and illustrate major benefits from the use of these computational solutions in real-world application domains such as security, negotiations, argumentative interactions, voting systems, autonomous driving, and games. The book presents both the traditional and classical methods as well as the most recent and cutting edge advances, providing the reader with a panorama of the challenges and solutions in predicting human decision-making.
Author: Ambreen Hamadani
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0443240000
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 370
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Book Description
A Biologist’s Guide to Artificial Intelligence: Building the Foundations of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Achieving Advancements in Life Sciences provides an overview of the basics of Artificial Intelligence for life science biologists. In 14 chapters/sections, readers will find an introduction to Artificial Intelligence from a biologist’s perspective, including coverage of AI in precision medicine, disease detection, and drug development. The book also gives insights into the AI techniques used in biology and the applications of AI in food, and in environmental, evolutionary, agricultural, and bioinformatic sciences. Final chapters cover ethical issues surrounding AI and the impact of AI on the future. This book covers an interdisciplinary area and is therefore is an important subject matter resource and reference for researchers in biology and students pursuing their degrees in all areas of Life Sciences. It is also a useful title for the industry sector and computer scientists who would gain a better understanding of the needs and requirements of biological sciences and thus better tune the algorithms. Helps biologists succeed in understanding the concepts of Artificial Intelligence and machine learning Equips with new data mining strategies an easy interface into the world of Artificial Intelligence Enables researchers to enhance their own sphere of researching Artificial Intelligence
Author: Alberto Diaz-Cayeros
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107140285
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 259
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Book Description
The Political Logic of Poverty Relief places electoral politics and institutional design at the core of poverty alleviation. The authors develop a theory with applications to Mexico about how elections shape social programs aimed at aiding the poor. They also assess whether voters reward politicians for targeted poverty alleviation programs.
