Medium-term Macroeconomic Effects of Russia’s War in Ukraine and How it Affects Energy Security and Global Emission Targets PDF Download
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Author: Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted the supply of natural gas for many European countries, triggering an energy crisis and affecting energy security. We simulate the medium-term effects of these trade disruptions and find that most European countries have limited GDP losses but those more dependent on Russian natural gas face moderate losses. European fossil fuel consumption and emissions are reduced and after accounting for the war impacts, achieving Europe’s emission targets becomes slightly less costly. In terms of energy security, the war eliminates European energy dependency from Russian imports, but most of the natural gas and oil imports will be substituted by other suppliers. We also find that constructing a new Russian pipeline to China does not provide significant macroeconomic benefits to either country.
Author: Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted the supply of natural gas for many European countries, triggering an energy crisis and affecting energy security. We simulate the medium-term effects of these trade disruptions and find that most European countries have limited GDP losses but those more dependent on Russian natural gas face moderate losses. European fossil fuel consumption and emissions are reduced and after accounting for the war impacts, achieving Europe’s emission targets becomes slightly less costly. In terms of energy security, the war eliminates European energy dependency from Russian imports, but most of the natural gas and oil imports will be substituted by other suppliers. We also find that constructing a new Russian pipeline to China does not provide significant macroeconomic benefits to either country.
Author: Oli Brown
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781784135836
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Both in Ukraine and around the world, the war is also increasing vulnerability to climate change, proliferating long-term security risks, complicating efforts on decarbonization and hindering multilateral climate action. — Ukraine already faced challenges in mitigating and adapting to climate change. The invasion has made the country even more vulnerable, having damaged the environment, destroyed infrastructure and thrown large parts of the population into poverty and displacement. The effects of the war are being felt far beyond Ukraine’s borders, particularly in terms of food and energy security. The war has also upended global energy politics. — Ultimately, the war may prove a milestone in an emerging period of ‘deglobalization’ that could make collective action on global challenges, including climate change, more difficult. But much depends on actions taken now. Post-war, with international help, Ukraine can rebuild its damaged infrastructure and leap forward to a more resilient, cleaner and low-emission future. Meanwhile, it is more important than ever to promote the necessary multilateral cooperation that can help the world to avert dangerous climate change and adapt to its effects.
Author: Nataliya Struk
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1040102719
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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Book Description
The Economics of Russia’s War in Ukraine provides a thorough analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian war, tracing its historical roots and exploring its multifaceted dimensions. This book emphasizes economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian impacts, highlighting Ukraine’s resilience amid challenges. At the same time, this study examines the EU’s dynamic responses to economic crises and energy transition, the consequences of the war on global trade dynamics, and the significant influence of geopolitical events on financial markets. It underscores the EU’s commitment to aiding Ukraine, enhancing its security, and increasing defence spending in response to evolving geopolitical complexities. The impact of the invasion on financial markets and the vulnerabilities of the banking sector are closely examined, highlighting the complex relationship between geopolitics and the global economy. Findings suggest that the priorities for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine include addressing human capital and demographics, employment opportunities, environmental protection, infrastructure and housing reconstruction, security and mine clearance, waste recycling, agriculture and food security, digital transformation, social protection and healthcare, and education and research. This book therefore argues that a comprehensive, integrated approach with international support is crucial for Ukraine’s recovery and sustainable economic growth. The Economics of Russia’s War in Ukraine will be useful for scholars, students, professionals, policy makers, all interested in economics, international relations, security, and global studies, as well as all those wishing to have a thorough and clear understanding of the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and its influence on Europe.
Author: Geoffroy Dolphin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Following the 2022 energy crisis, this paper investigates whether Europe’s ongoing efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions can also enhance its energy security. The global computational general equilibrium model analysis finds that individual policy tools, including carbon pricing, energy efficiency standards, and accelerated permitting procedures for renewables, tend to improve energy security. Compared to carbon pricing, sector-specific regulations deliver larger energy security gains and spread those more evenly across countries, benefitting also some fossil-fuel-intensive economies in Central and Eastern Europe. This finding strengthens the case for a broad climate policy package, which can both achieve Europe’s emissions-reduction goals and deliver sizeable energy security co-benefits. An illustrative package, which would cut emissions in the EU, UK, and EFTA by 55 percent with respect to 1990 levels by 2030, is estimated to improve the two energy security metrics used in this paper by close to 8 percent already by 2030. Beyond the policies analyzed in the model, the paper also discusses the technology, market design, and supply chain reforms that Europe needs for an energy-secure green transition.
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author:
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
ISBN: 925138844X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 335
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Book Description
Author: Arnold McIntyre
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513560743
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 67
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Book Description
High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy agenda forward based on analyses of macro-aspects of energy reform. These include: i) quantitative assessment of the impact of energy costs on growth and competitiveness; ii) evaluation of gains from implementing announced renewable energy and energy efficiency targets; and iii) analysis of the impact of energy investments on debt sustainability. The paper argues for a bigger role for the private sector in energy reform and discusses prerequisites for good public-private partnerships.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
ISBN: 9251346089
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 337
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Book Description
The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403
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Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
